NBA Game Picks & Analysis
New York Knicks vs. Boston Celtics
Knicks vs. Celtics – Game 1 Preview
Monday, 7:00 p.m. ET • TD Garden, Boston
Our Pick: Knicks +9
As the New York Knicks prepare to take on the Boston Celtics in Game 1 of the 2025 NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals tonight, they enter TD Garden as significant underdogs, with oddsmakers placing them at +9. Despite the Celtics sweeping their regular-season series, the postseason landscape often reshapes narratives, and several factors position the Knicks to cover the spread and make this a tightly contested matchup.
Jalen Brunson has been the catalyst for New York’s postseason success, significantly elevating his performance in clutch moments. Against the Detroit Pistons in the first round, Brunson averaged an impressive 31.5 points and 8.2 assists per game. His ability to dictate tempo and score under pressure will be pivotal against Boston’s strong defensive backcourt, anchored by Jrue Holiday. If Brunson continues to exploit mismatches and consistently penetrate the Celtics’ perimeter defense, the Knicks will maintain offensive efficiency.
Moreover, Karl-Anthony Towns’ versatility in the frontcourt adds another dimension to the Knicks’ attack. Averaging 19.7 points and 10 rebounds per game during these playoffs, Towns’ proficiency in perimeter shooting and inside scoring creates spacing issues for Boston. The Celtics will likely rely heavily on Kristaps Porziņģis to counter Towns, but Porziņģis’ tendency to drift outside defensively could leave opportunities inside for second-chance points and easier buckets.
Defensively, the Knicks possess significant depth on the wings, featuring OG Anunoby, Josh Hart, and Mikal Bridges. These versatile defenders have the size and agility to challenge Boston’s star forward, Jayson Tatum, who has been exceptional thus far in the playoffs, averaging 31.3 points per game. Anunoby’s physical and disciplined defensive style, combined with strategic rotations from Hart and Bridges, can potentially limit Tatum’s impact, forcing other Celtics players to step up offensively.
Additionally, recent betting trends highlight New York’s resilience on the road, having covered the spread in six of their last eight away games. Their ability to perform under high-pressure environments suggests they can maintain composure and keep tonight’s game close, even if victory remains challenging.
Expect Game 1 to be intensely competitive, with the Knicks leveraging their postseason momentum, strategic defensive matchups, and offensive versatility to cover the +9 spread comfortably.
Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Nuggets vs. Thunder – Game 1 Preview
Monday, 9:30 p.m. ET • Paycom Center, Oklahoma City
Our Pick: Thunder –10.5
The Oklahoma City Thunder open their Western Conference Semifinals against the Denver Nuggets tonight at the Paycom Center, looking to continue their dominant playoff form. After comfortably sweeping the Memphis Grizzlies in the first round, the Thunder come into this matchup well-rested and strategically prepared. Conversely, the Nuggets face an uphill battle, having just completed a taxing seven-game series against the Los Angeles Clippers, with their Game 7 victory occurring only two days ago. The short turnaround puts Denver at a clear disadvantage, potentially impacting their ability to sustain energy levels throughout the full 48 minutes of play.
At the heart of Oklahoma City’s success this season has been their exceptional defense. The Thunder boast the NBA’s best defensive rating (106.6), a key factor in their impressive 68-14 regular-season record. Led by defensive anchor Chet Holmgren, whose presence in the paint alters opponents’ shot selection and execution, the Thunder’s defensive intensity often creates easy transition opportunities, fueling their offense.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, a leading MVP candidate, continues to be the driving force offensively for Oklahoma City. Averaging 32.7 points per game in the regular season, his ability to score efficiently and distribute the ball under pressure makes him a matchup nightmare for any defense, particularly Denver’s perimeter defenders who struggled against the Clippers’ dynamic guards.
On the Nuggets’ side, Nikola Jokić remains their focal point, coming off an extraordinary regular season where he averaged a triple-double (29.6 points, 12.7 rebounds, and 10.2 assists per game). However, the Nuggets have shown vulnerability when Jokić is off the court. Their net rating dips dramatically, a weakness Oklahoma City will likely exploit with aggressive rotations and pressure defense. Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. must provide significant support to mitigate this deficit, though their consistency has been questionable under playoff pressure.
Considering Oklahoma City’s fresh legs, superior defense, home-court advantage (35-6 at home), and the Nuggets’ quick turnaround from a grueling series, the Thunder are strongly positioned to not only secure a Game 1 victory but also comfortably cover the -10.5 spread. Expect the Thunder to leverage their depth, defensive prowess, and balanced offensive attack to establish dominance early in the series.
