Pacers vs. Thunder – NBA Finals Game 7

Sunday, 8:00 p.m. ET • Paycom Center, Oklahoma City

Our Pick: Pacers +7

The NBA Finals reach their thrilling conclusion tonight as the Indiana Pacers battle the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 7, a matchup destined to cap off an unforgettable series. Coming off a commanding 108-91 victory in Game 6, the Pacers arrive in Oklahoma City riding a wave of momentum and confidence. Though the Thunder are favored at home, recent trends and critical factors suggest Indiana is well-equipped to cover the +7 spread and possibly pull off an upset victory.

Indiana’s resilience has defined this series. Game 6 illustrated the Pacers’ formula for success—relentless defensive pressure and balanced offensive contributions. The Pacers forced the Thunder into a staggering 21 turnovers, showcasing their ability to disrupt Oklahoma City’s usually efficient offense. Indiana’s aggressive perimeter defense, led by guards TJ McConnell and Andrew Nembhard, has consistently challenged Oklahoma City’s ball handlers, limiting MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s effectiveness by forcing him into eight turnovers last game.

Another critical component favoring Indiana is their balanced scoring attack. Game 6 saw significant contributions across the roster, with Obi Toppin scoring 20 points, Nembhard adding 17, and Pascal Siakam contributing a crucial double-double with 16 points and 13 rebounds. Additionally, TJ McConnell’s versatility and energy off the bench (12 points, 6 assists, 9 rebounds, and 4 steals) have given the Pacers a definitive edge in depth, creating difficult matchup decisions for Oklahoma City.

The Thunder, despite home-court advantage and their regular-season dominance (68-14 record), are under immense pressure. Their offense has often stagnated when forced into half-court sets by Indiana’s disciplined defense. For Oklahoma City to win convincingly, they’ll need more consistent production beyond Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams, who combined for just 37 points in Game 6.

Historically, Game 7 scenarios favor the home team, but Indiana’s playoff road record (7-4) signals they thrive under hostile conditions. Furthermore, the betting line tightening from Oklahoma City’s initial -8.5 down to -7 indicates increasing confidence from sharp bettors in Indiana’s ability to keep the game competitive.

Expect a tight contest defined by defense, turnovers, and depth—areas where Indiana has consistently excelled. While the Thunder could clinch at home, the Pacers’ recent form strongly supports them covering the spread, ensuring an exciting and competitive conclusion to the 2025 NBA Finals.