Pacers vs. Thunder – NBA Finals Game 5

Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET • Paycom Center, Oklahoma City

Our Pick: Pacers +9.5

Game 5 of the 2025 NBA Finals between the Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder is poised to be a critical turning point in this tightly contested series. Tied at two games apiece, the spotlight is firmly on tonight’s pivotal matchup in Oklahoma City. The Thunder enter as 9.5-point favorites, but the Pacers possess several key advantages that could help them cover the sizable spread.

The Pacers have repeatedly demonstrated resilience and adaptability throughout the playoffs, particularly evident in their perfect 5-0 record in games following a loss. Under Coach Rick Carlisle, whose innovative and disruptive tactics famously upset LeBron James’ Miami Heat in 2011, Indiana has shown remarkable flexibility. Carlisle’s strategic adjustments, such as aggressive full-court pressure and rotational shifts, have repeatedly disrupted the Thunder’s offensive rhythm, despite Oklahoma City’s significant firepower.

Indiana’s offensive versatility is another crucial factor. Led by guard Tyrese Haliburton, who has averaged approximately 18.6 points and 9.3 assists this postseason, the Pacers thrive on balanced scoring. Bennedict Mathurin has emerged as a critical bench contributor, highlighted by his impressive 27-point performance in Game 3. This depth alleviates pressure from any single star, enabling Indiana to sustain offensive momentum even when Oklahoma City intensifies defensive efforts.

While the Thunder’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has delivered standout performances—including a stunning 35-point display in Game 4—Oklahoma City’s reliance on his individual brilliance might pose risks. Indiana has demonstrated the ability to keep games competitive through collective effort, especially by maximizing perimeter shooting and controlling pace.

In Game 4, the Pacers led into the fourth quarter before faltering late, a scenario unlikely to repeat itself without adjustments. Improved ball protection and more disciplined defense could limit the Thunder’s transition opportunities, which were critical in Oklahoma City’s comeback. Additionally, with the spread inflated due to Oklahoma City’s formidable home-court advantage, Indiana’s demonstrated resilience and scoring balance make them a solid bet to cover.

In conclusion, while the Thunder remain formidable at home, the Pacers’ depth, tactical adaptability, and proven resilience suggest that covering a 9.5-point spread tonight is well within their capabilities.