NBA Game Picks & Analysis
Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks
NBA Play-In Preview: Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks
Location: Atlanta | Time: Friday, 7 p.m. EDT
Our Pick: Heat -1
PLAY-IN GAME:
The winner advances to the eighth‑seed game in the Eastern Conference playoffs.
BOTTOM LINE:
Miami brings lockdown defense into Atlanta. The Heat have won seven of their last ten road games and hold opponents to just 110.0 PPG in their wins. Atlanta’s up‑tempo style can generate offense, but Miami’s strength on the glass and ability to force contested shots should keep the margin within one point and give the Heat a road‑covering victory.
TEAM INSIGHTS:
- Hawks (30-22 vs. East): 8-6 in one‑possession games, averaging 118.2 PPG while allowing 119.3. They thrive in transition and make 36.4% of their 3s.
- Heat (10-6 vs. SE Division): 3-11 in games decided by three points or fewer, but rank top‑10 in defensive rebounds (33.7 RPG) and steals (9.6 SPG), limiting second‑chance points.
WHY THE HEAT WILL COVER:
Miami wins the rebound battle (+3.2 RPG over the last ten) and holds opponents under 46.6% shooting. Their veteran backcourt thrives in late‑game situations, and coach Spoelstra’s defensive schemes force tough shots. In a tight play‑in setting, that edge helps Miami cover the slim spread.
TOP PERFORMERS:
- Trae Young (Hawks): 24.2 PPG, 11.6 APG, elite playmaker.
- Tyler Herro (Heat): 23.9 PPG, 5.2 RPG, sparks offense.
LAST 10 GAMES:
- Hawks: 5-5, 122.6 PPG, 49.9% FG, opponents 119.1 PPG.
- Heat: 6-4, 120.6 PPG, 49.0% FG, opponents 108.2 PPG.
INJURIES:
- Hawks: Trae Young DTD (achilles), Larry Nance Jr. out (knee), Clint Capela out (hand).
- Heat: Dru Smith out (achilles), Nikola Jovic DTD (hand), Kevin Love DTD (personal).
Dallas Mavericks vs. Memphis Grizzlies
NBA Play-In Preview: Dallas Mavericks vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Location: Memphis; Time: Friday, 9:30 p.m. EDT
Our Pick: Grizzlies -6
PLAY-IN GAME:
This win‑or‑go‑home contest decides the eighth seed in the Western Conference.
BOTTOM LINE:
Memphis rides home‑court energy and an aggressive transition attack. The Grizzlies score 16.7 fast‑break points per game, while Dallas struggles to protect the ball (13.3 turnovers per game). Expect Memphis to pull away and cover the six‑point spread.
TEAM INSIGHTS:
- Grizzlies (11‑5 vs. Southwest): Third in the West with 16.7 fast‑break points led by Ja Morant’s 4.0 per game. They connect on 13.9 threes and grab 45.7 rebounds per game.
- Mavericks (8‑8 vs. Southwest): Rely on Anthony Davis (24.7 PPG, 11.6 RPG) but average just 107.6 points in their last ten. They force 7.1 steals but turn the ball over 13.3 times per game.
WHY THE GRIZZLIES WILL COVER:
Memphis controls the pace, limits turnovers, and makes timely threes. Their defense steps up late, forcing tough Dallas shots. In a high‑stakes play‑in, that edge should deliver a double‑digit lead.
TOP PERFORMERS:
- Ja Morant (Grizzlies): 23.2 PPG, 4.1 RPG, dynamic playmaker.
- Anthony Davis (Mavericks): 24.7 PPG, 11.6 RPG, two‑way force.
LAST 10 GAMES:
- Grizzlies: 4‑6, 116.8 PPG on 46.8% shooting; opponents 117.6 PPG.
- Mavericks: 4‑6, 107.6 PPG on 48.6% shooting; opponents 116.5 PPG.
INJURIES:
- Grizzlies: Ja Morant DTD (ankle), Jaylen Wells out (wrist), Brandon Clarke out (knee).
- Mavericks: Anthony Davis DTD (groin), Kyrie Irving out (knee), Brandon Williams DTD (oblique).
