NBA Game Picks & Analysis
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Portland Trail Blazers
76ers vs. Trail Blazers Preview
Philadelphia; Monday, 7 p.m. EST
Our Pick: 76ers -2
BOTTOM LINE:
The Philadelphia 76ers (21-38) host the Portland Trail Blazers (27-34) on Monday after Quentin Grimes’ 44-point performance helped the 76ers edge the Warriors 126-119. While the original line favored Philadelphia by -3.5, we believe the 76ers will cover a -2 spread thanks to their improved offensive efficiency and tighter defense.
GAME OVERVIEW:
Philadelphia has struggled at home with an 11-20 record and is only 4-4 in games decided by 3 points or fewer. However, the 76ers are beginning to show signs of life, particularly from beyond the arc, averaging 12.6 made three-pointers per game—almost matching the 12.8 that the Trail Blazers give up. Meanwhile, the Blazers are 11-20 on the road and average 110.5 points per game, slightly lower than the 76ers’ 113.5 allowed. These numbers point to a competitive game where the 76ers’ slight offensive edge can make the difference.
KEY PERFORMERS:
Tyrese Maxey leads Philadelphia, averaging 26.7 points per game while shooting 44.1%, and Quentin Grimes has been effective from deep with 2.3 made three-pointers over his last 10 games. For Portland, Anfernee Simons is averaging 18.7 points and 5 assists, while Shaedon Sharpe contributes 18.5 points and 3.1 assists.
RECENT FORM & INJURIES:
Over the last 10 games, the 76ers are 1-9, averaging 108.7 points on 44.5% shooting, compared to the Blazers’ 5-5 record with 118.0 points per game at 46.3%. Injuries have significantly affected Philadelphia, with key players like Jared McCain and Joel Embiid out for the season.
WHY THE 76ERS WILL COVER -2:
Despite recent struggles, Philadelphia’s emerging efficiency on offense and improved defensive rotations should allow them to control the pace and secure a win by at least 2 points, making the -2 spread a smart bet.
Golden State Warriors vs. Charlotte Hornets
Warriors vs. Hornets Preview
Charlotte, North Carolina; Monday, 7 p.m. EST
Our Pick: Warriors -13
BOTTOM LINE:
The Golden State Warriors (32-28) host the Charlotte Hornets (14-45) on Monday night. Despite the Hornets’ recent struggles, we expect the Warriors to cover the -13 spread with their explosive offense and strong defensive performance.
GAME OVERVIEW:
The Hornets have lost six in a row and are 9-21 at home. They average 13.3 made three-pointers per game—the same number the Warriors allow—while struggling overall, particularly on defense. On the road, the Warriors are 15-15 and are known for their ability to score in bunches. They currently shoot 44.7% from the field, which is 1.9 percentage points lower than the 46.6% their opponents post. This slight edge in efficiency, combined with a potent offensive attack, positions Golden State to win comfortably.
KEY PERFORMERS:
For the Hornets, Miles Bridges is averaging 19.9 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 3.8 assists, while Josh Green has been contributing 1.6 made three-pointers over the last 10 games. For the Warriors, Stephen Curry leads the charge with 24.1 points and 6.2 assists, and Quinten Post has been reliable from beyond the arc, averaging 2.2 made three-pointers in his last 10 games.
RECENT FORM & INJURIES:
In their last 10 games, the Hornets are 1-9, averaging just 95.6 points per game, while the Warriors are 7-3, putting up 120.7 points on 45.9% shooting. With key Hornets players (Grant Williams, Brandon Miller, Tre Mann) out or day-to-day and the Warriors’ Jimmy Butler III and Jonathan Kuminga also day-to-day, Golden State’s overall strength and depth should allow them to win by at least 13 points.
WHY THE WARRIORS WILL COVER -13:
Golden State’s high-octane offense, led by Curry and supported by strong perimeter shooting, combined with a disciplined defense, should create a significant scoring margin. The Hornets’ struggles on both ends make the -13 spread a smart bet.
Washington Wizards vs. Miami Heat
Heat vs. Wizards Preview
Miami; Monday, 7:30 p.m. EST
Our Pick: Heat -8
BOTTOM LINE:
The Miami Heat (28-31) host the Washington Wizards (11-48) on Monday night, and we believe the Heat will cover the -8 spread. Despite the Wizards’ efforts, Miami’s strong home defense and efficient scoring should keep the game within an eight-point margin.
GAME OVERVIEW:
The Heat are 6-4 against division opponents and rank well on defense, allowing only 110.9 points per game while holding opponents to 46.4% shooting. In contrast, the Wizards are 6-5 in division play but have struggled, giving up 120.8 points per game and being outscored by an average of 12.4 points. Offensively, Miami makes 13.9 three-pointers per game—almost matching the 14.3 that the Wizards allow—while the Wizards’ overall field goal percentage of 44.1% is 2.3 percentage points lower than what the Heat allow.
KEY PERFORMERS:
For the Heat, Tyler Herro is leading the way with averages of 24.1 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 5.7 assists. Bam Adebayo has been in good form as well, averaging 19.2 points over the last 10 games. On the Wizards side, Bub Carrington contributes 9.1 points with 3.9 assists, while Corey Kispert has been reliable from deep, averaging 13.7 points and 3.3 rebounds in his last 10 games.
RECENT FORM & INJURIES:
Over the past 10 games, the Heat are 3-7, averaging 107.2 points per game, whereas the Wizards are 3-7, averaging 113.7 points. Injuries have hampered both teams: Miami is without Dru Smith, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Nikola Jovic, and Andrew Wiggins, while Washington misses Saddiq Bey, Jordan Poole, and Malcolm Brogdon.
WHY THE HEAT WILL COVER -8:
Miami’s disciplined defense and efficient shooting give them the tools to limit Washington’s scoring and win by at least eight points, making the -8 spread an attractive bet.
Atlanta Hawks vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Grizzlies vs. Hawks Preview
Memphis, Tennessee; Monday, 8 p.m. EST
Our Pick: Grizzlies -8.5
BOTTOM LINE:
The Memphis Grizzlies (38-22) host the Atlanta Hawks (27-33) on Monday night. Despite recent struggles by the Hawks, we believe the Grizzlies will cover the -8.5 spread thanks to their strong home performance and overall offensive efficiency.
GAME OVERVIEW:
The Grizzlies have been impressive at home, posting a 22-8 record, and they are competitive in close contests with a 6-5 record in one-possession games. Meanwhile, the Hawks are 14-18 on the road. Atlanta ranks second in the Eastern Conference in offensive rebounds, averaging 11.8 per game, led by Clint Capela’s 3.2 rebounds. However, Memphis has the edge when it comes to perimeter shooting; the Grizzlies make 13.8 three-pointers per game—only slightly fewer than the 14.3 that the Hawks allow.
KEY PERFORMERS:
For Memphis, Jaren Jackson Jr. is leading the team with 23.1 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 2.2 assists, while Ja Morant has been solid with 17.8 points and 3.1 rebounds over the last 10 games. For Atlanta, Onyeka Okongwu averages 12.5 points and 8.1 rebounds, and Trae Young is providing scoring and playmaking, averaging 27.1 points and 2.6 rebounds in his recent games.
RECENT FORM & INJURIES:
Over the last 10 games, the Grizzlies are 4-6, averaging 121.6 points per game, while the Hawks are 4-6, putting up 120.2 points. With key injuries affecting Atlanta—such as Larry Nance Jr. and Kobe Bufkin out for the season—the Grizzlies’ consistent scoring and strong home advantage should allow them to cover the -8.5 spread.
