Blazers vs. Pelicans – Preview
Thursday, 8:00pm ET • Smoothie King Center
Our Pick: Blazers -3.5

Portland heads into tonight’s matchup at Smoothie King Center as a short road favorite (the market has this around Blazers -3.5 to -4.5 with a total near 240). At 9–15 overall, they’re hardly a juggernaut, but they face a New Orleans team that owns the league’s worst record at 3–22 and is just 2–12 at home, riding a seven-game losing streak and a 1–9 skid over its last 10.

Statistically, Portland brings the more balanced profile. The Blazers average 117.4 points per game versus 113.0 for the Pelicans and win the glass 45.8 to 42.0 rebounds per night. Portland’s offensive rating sits at 114.4 with a defensive rating of 117.5, a mildly negative net but still clearly superior to New Orleans’ defense, which owns a 122.8 defensive rating and allows 123.7 points per game — bottom-tier numbers by any standard. Against a Pelicans unit that struggles to get consistent stops, Portland’s primary scorers, led by Deni Avdija’s 25.8 points per game, are well-positioned to generate efficient looks throughout.

Trends also tilt toward the Blazers covering a modest number. Portland is 13–10–1 against the spread (ATS) on the season and 7–3 ATS across its last 10 games, showing the market has slightly undervalued them. New Orleans, despite a respectable 13–10–2 ATS overall, has been bleeding points lately; the Pelicans have allowed 135, 119, 125, 149 (OT), and 133 in their last five losses, including a 135–132 defeat to San Antonio in which they squandered a 25-point deficit comeback and Derik Queen’s 33-point triple-double.

Head-to-head, Portland has dominated recent meetings, going 4–1 straight up and 5–0–1 ATS in its last six against New Orleans, and 4–2 straight up in its last six trips to the Crescent City. ESPN’s analytics also favor the Blazers, giving them about a 62% win probability. Put together — superior offense and rebounding, a historically bad Pelicans defense, strong recent ATS form, and favorable matchup history — Portland looks well equipped to win by multiple possessions and cover a -3.5 spread tonight.