Cubs vs. Brewers – Preview
Monday, 9:08pm ET • American Family Field
Our Pick: Brewers Moneyline

The Brewers enter with the NL’s best regular-season record (97–65) and home-field throughout October, and they already landed the first punch with a 9–3 Game 1 win.  Milwaukee’s home edge is real: they went 52–29 at American Family Field in 2025, one of MLB’s better home marks. 

Pitching matchup favors Milwaukee’s plan. The Cubs start left-hander Shota Imanaga (9–8, 3.73 ERA, 0.99 WHIP in 2025). Milwaukee counters with Aaron Ashby as an opener (5–2, 2.16 ERA), a role they’ve telegraphed going into tonight.  Imanaga has struggled specifically versus the Brewers in his MLB career (1–3, 5.73 ERA in four appearances), whereas Ashby’s run-prevention has been elite this season in shorter stints. 

Beyond the starters, Milwaukee’s bullpen has been a quiet separator. Over the regular season the Brewers’ relievers posted a 3.63 ERA, better than the Cubs’ 3.78, a meaningful edge in a postseason game where both pens should matter.  That relief depth showed in Game 1’s comfortable finish and will backstop Ashby’s opener assignment again. 

Offensively, the Brewers’ profile travels—and plays at home. Milwaukee finished second in MLB in on-base percentage (.332), a pressure style that lengthens innings even without gaudy homer totals.  That’s especially relevant against a lefty: the Crew hit .268 with a .734 OPS vs LHP in 2025, a top-third split that dovetails with Imanaga’s Brewers history.  Even if Jackson Chourio (hamstring) is limited, reports suggest the lineup construction remains largely intact and deep enough to stress Chicago’s staff. 

Chicago did take the season series 7–6, but October has already tilted Milwaukee’s way, and the underlying matchup details—home form, bullpen advantage, lefty split, and opponent-specific pitcher history—support the Brewers as rightful moneyline favorites (books are pricing Chicago as the underdog).