NBA Game Picks & Analysis
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Atlanta Hawks
NBA Matchup Preview: Philadelphia 76ers vs. Atlanta Hawks
Location: Atlanta | Time: Sunday, 6 p.m. EDT
Our Pick: Hawks -10.5
BOTTOM LINE:
The Atlanta Hawks are favored at -10.5 as they host a struggling Philadelphia 76ers, who are trying to break a three-game road skid. Despite some defensive numbers being close, the Hawks’ overall performance and home-court advantage should enable them to cover the spread.
TEAM OVERVIEW:
The Hawks (34-36, seventh in the East) have been competitive in conference play, posting a 25-19 record. They play with an aggressive style, averaging 13.1 made 3-pointers per game. The 76ers (23-47, 12th in the East) have had a tough season, struggling in conference contests at 14-28. Philadelphia’s rebounding woes—recording only 39.3 rebounds per game—add to their difficulties.
MATCHUP INSIGHTS:
Atlanta’s balanced offense and disciplined defense give them the edge. The Hawks’ ability to limit opponents is clear as they allow nearly 1.0 fewer 3-pointers per game than the 76ers give up. In their last 10 games, the Hawks are 7-3 and average 122.2 points while holding opponents to 118.6. Conversely, the 76ers are 2-8, averaging 115.8 points while giving up 126.3. This gap shows why the Hawks should cover the -10.5 spread.
TOP PERFORMERS:
For Atlanta, Trae Young is averaging 24.1 points with 11.4 assists, and Onyeka Okongwu has been a steady force, averaging 15.6 points over the last 10 games. The 76ers rely on Quentin Grimes and Jeff Dowtin, though their production has been inconsistent.
INJURIES:
The Hawks miss Larry Nance Jr. (out, knee), Jacob Toppin (day-to-day, elbow), Kobe Bufkin (out for season, shoulder), Clint Capela (out, hand), Keaton Wallace (day-to-day, shoulder), and Jalen Johnson (out for season, shoulder). The 76ers are further hindered by multiple injuries including Jared McCain, Adem Bona, Kelly Oubre Jr., Eric Gordon, Lonnie Walker IV, Tyrese Maxey, Andre Drummond, Paul George, Joel Embiid, and Kyle Lowry.
San Antonio Spurs vs. Toronto Raptors
NBA Matchup Preview: San Antonio Spurs vs. Toronto Raptors
Location: Toronto | Time: Sunday, 6 p.m. EDT
Our Pick: Raptors -1.5
BOTTOM LINE:
The Toronto Raptors, despite losing three straight, are expected to cover the -1.5 spread against the struggling San Antonio Spurs. Their home-court advantage and tighter play in recent games give them the edge.
TEAM OVERVIEW:
The Raptors (24-46, 11th in the East) are 16-20 at home and have shown they can compete in close games, holding a 7-9 record in contests decided by less than 4 points. The Spurs (30-39, 13th in the West) are 11-22 on the road and often lose by big margins, with a 16-26 record in games decided by 10 points or more.
MATCHUP INSIGHTS:
Toronto shoots 46.0% from the field, slightly lower than the 47.4% that the Spurs allow. However, the Spurs average 14.1 made 3-pointers per game, only 0.6 more than what the Raptors give up. The Raptors’ disciplined defense and improved recent performance (6-4 in the last 10 games) suggest they will tighten up against a porous Spurs defense, helping them cover the -1.5 spread.
TOP PERFORMERS:
RJ Barrett averages 21.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 5.7 assists, while Scottie Barnes has been scoring 16.2 points over the last 10 games. For San Antonio, Victor Wembanyama is averaging 24.3 points and 11.0 rebounds, with Devin Vassell contributing from beyond the arc.
INJURIES:
The Raptors are without Ulrich Chomche (out for season, knee), Brandon Ingram (out, ankle), and Gradey Dick (out, knee), with RJ Barrett and Ja’Kobe Walter listed as day-to-day. The Spurs miss Charles Bassey (day-to-day, knee), De’Aaron Fox (out for season, hand), and Victor Wembanyama (out for season, illness).
Charlotte Hornets vs. Miami Heat
NBA Matchup Preview: Charlotte Hornets vs. Miami Heat
Location: Miami | Time: Sunday, 6 p.m. EDT
Our Pick: Heat -6.5
BOTTOM LINE:
Miami aims to break its seven-game home slide against a struggling Charlotte Hornets team. The Heat are favored at -6.5 and should cover the spread with their strong defensive presence and better overall performance in conference games.
TEAM OVERVIEW:
The Miami Heat (29-41, 10th in the East) are 18-25 in Eastern Conference play and rank third in limiting opponent scoring, giving up just 110.7 points per game and holding teams to 46.6% shooting. In contrast, the Hornets (18-52, 14th in the East) are 10-34 in conference play and have a 5-31 record in games decided by 10 or more points, highlighting their inconsistency and defensive struggles.
MATCHUP INSIGHTS:
Miami’s offensive efficiency is evident as they make 13.5 three-pointers per game, almost matching the 14.0 per game that Charlotte allows. Additionally, the Hornets’ field goal percentage of 42.9% is significantly lower than the 46.6% that opponents have managed against the Heat. These numbers suggest that Miami can control the game pace, limit scoring, and cover the -6.5 spread.
TOP PERFORMERS:
For the Heat, Bam Adebayo averages 17.6 points, 9.8 rebounds, and 4.4 assists, while Tyler Herro has been averaging 17.9 points over the last 10 games. Charlotte relies on Miles Bridges (21.0 points, 7.7 rebounds, 3.9 assists) and LaMelo Ball (14.9 points, 2.9 rebounds).
INJURIES:
Miami is without Dru Smith (out for season, Achilles) and Nikola Jovic (out, hand). The Hornets miss Grant Williams (out for season, ACL), Brandon Miller (out for season, wrist), Tre Mann (out for season, back) along with several players listed as day-to-day.
Boston Celtics vs. Portland Trail Blazers
NBA Matchup Preview: Boston Celtics vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Location: Portland, Oregon | Time: Sunday, 6 p.m. EDT
Our Pick: Celtics -7.5
BOTTOM LINE:
The Boston Celtics, coming off a strong performance on the road, are favored at -7.5 against the Portland Trail Blazers. With solid playmaking and efficient shooting, Boston is expected to cover the spread.
TEAM OVERVIEW:
The Celtics (51-19, second in the Eastern Conference) are 27-7 on the road and rank ninth in assists, averaging 25.7 per game led by Jayson Tatum, who is a key playmaker. In contrast, the Trail Blazers (32-39, 12th in the Western Conference) are 20-16 at home. Although they excel in offensive rebounding, ranking third in the league at 13.0 per game, they struggle to keep pace with Boston’s overall efficiency.
MATCHUP INSIGHTS:
Portland shoots 45.2% from the field, nearly matching the 45.3% allowed by the Celtics. However, Boston’s superior three-point shooting gives them a clear edge. The Celtics average 17.7 made 3-pointers per game, which is 4.9 more than what the Trail Blazers allow. This strong perimeter play, combined with excellent ball movement, will help Boston control the game and cover the -7.5 spread.
TOP PERFORMERS:
For Portland, Deni Avdija and Shaedon Sharpe have been key contributors. For Boston, Jaylen Brown leads with 22.8 points and solid rebounding, while Payton Pritchard provides reliable shooting from beyond the arc.
INJURIES:
The Trail Blazers are without Anfernee Simons, Deandre Ayton, Jabari Walker, Robert Williams III, Donovan Clingan, and Jerami Grant. The Celtics have Jaylen Brown and Xavier Tillman Sr. listed as day-to-day.
Denver Nuggets vs. Houston Rockets
NBA Matchup Preview: Denver Nuggets vs. Houston Rockets
Location: Houston | Time: Sunday, 7 p.m. EDT
Our Pick: Rockets -7
BOTTOM LINE:
Houston hosts Denver as the Rockets look to extend their six-game home win streak. With their strong interior play and impressive recent form, the Rockets are expected to cover the -7 spread.
TEAM OVERVIEW:
The Houston Rockets (46-25, second in the Western Conference) have been dominant at home, posting a 26-16 record in conference games. They excel in the paint, averaging 50.9 points per game, led by Alperen Sengun, who averages 13.2 offensive rebounds. In contrast, the Denver Nuggets (44-27, fourth in the West) are 27-17 in conference play, scoring 120.8 points per game and outscoring opponents by 3.9 points on average.
MATCHUP INSIGHTS:
While the Rockets average 12.5 made 3-pointers per game, the Nuggets allow 14.0, suggesting that Houston can keep Denver’s long-range attack in check. Moreover, although Denver shoots 50.6% from the field, this efficiency is 5.1% higher than what the Rockets’ opponents usually hit. The Rockets’ recent 9-1 run in their last 10 games highlights their ability to control the pace and score efficiently, key factors that should help them cover the -7 spread.
TOP PERFORMERS:
For Houston, Sengun is averaging 19 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 4.9 assists, while Jalen Green adds 19.2 points, six rebounds, and 4.9 assists over the last 10 games. For Denver, Jamal Murray averages 21.3 points and six assists, with Russell Westbrook providing additional scoring from deep.
INJURIES:
The Rockets are without Reed Sheppard (thumb). The Nuggets miss Nikola Jokic (ankle), DaRon Holmes II (season-ending, achilles), and Julian Strawther (knee).
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Los Angeles Clippers
NBA Matchup Preview: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Location: Inglewood, California | Time: Sunday, 9 p.m. EDT
Our Pick: Thunder -2
BOTTOM LINE:
The Oklahoma City Thunder, riding a five-game win streak, look to continue their dominance as they face the Los Angeles Clippers. With a -2 spread, the Thunder are expected to cover due to their explosive offense and strong recent form.
TEAM OVERVIEW:
The Thunder (58-12, first in the Western Conference) are one of the league’s elite teams. They have been exceptional in conference play, boasting a 32-11 record. The Clippers (39-30, seventh in the West) have been inconsistent on the road, managing a 21-22 record in Western Conference games. Los Angeles is known for its disciplined defense, allowing just 108.6 points per game while holding opponents to 46.1% shooting.
MATCHUP INSIGHTS:
Oklahoma City shines in the paint, averaging 51.0 points there, led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is a key offensive force. The Thunder’s shooting efficiency of 48.1% from the field is 2.0% higher than what the Clippers allow. Although the Clippers score about 111.7 points per game, the Thunder have shown the ability to control pace and limit scoring, allowing only 107.0 points per game. These factors make it likely that the Thunder will cover the -2 spread.
TOP PERFORMERS:
For the Clippers, Ivica Zubac is averaging 16.4 points at 62.5% shooting. The Thunder rely on James Harden, who is averaging 26.7 points in his last 10 games, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, scoring 32.9 points per game with strong overall contributions.
INJURIES:
The Clippers are without Jordan Miller (hamstring). For the Thunder, Jalen Williams, Ousmane Dieng, and Luguentz Dort are day-to-day, while Nikola Topic is out for the season and Ajay Mitchell is out (toe).
