NBA Game Picks & Analysis
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Atlanta Hawks
Hawks vs. 76ers Preview
Atlanta; Monday, 7:30 p.m. EDT
Our Pick: Hawks -12
BOTTOM LINE:
The Atlanta Hawks (30-34) host the Philadelphia 76ers (22-41) on Monday night. Despite Philadelphia’s recent struggles on the road, the Hawks’ high-powered offense and dominant rebounding give them the edge to cover a steep -12 spread.
GAME OVERVIEW:
The 76ers have been on a six-game road skid, struggling with consistency as they give up 114.1 points per game and are outscored by an average of 4.8 points. In contrast, the Hawks have shown more resilience against Eastern Conference opponents, posting a 22-18 record. Atlanta’s interior presence is bolstered by strong offensive rebounding—ranking third in the East with an average of 11.9 offensive boards per game, led by Clint Capela averaging 3.2 boards. This advantage, combined with efficient perimeter play, makes the Hawks a tough matchup.
KEY PERFORMERS:
Trae Young leads the Hawks with averages of 23.8 points and 11.5 assists, driving the team’s offense and creating opportunities. Caris LeVert has been in good form, adding 17.5 points over the last 10 games. For the 76ers, Kelly Oubre Jr. contributes 15.1 points with 6.2 rebounds, while Quentin Grimes brings 18.9 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 3.6 assists over his recent outings.
RECENT FORM & INJURIES:
Over the last 10 games, the Hawks are 4-6, averaging 122.2 points per game, while the 76ers are 2-8, averaging just 108.9 points. With key 76ers players—Jared McCain, Joel Embiid, and others—sidelined, and several Hawks’ injuries either minor or day-to-day, Atlanta’s offensive firepower and defensive rebounding should enable them to cover the -12 spread and secure a home win.
Utah Jazz vs. Boston Celtics
Celtics vs. Jazz Preview
Boston; Monday, 7:30 p.m. EDT
Our Pick: Celtics -17
BOTTOM LINE:
The Boston Celtics (46-18) host the struggling Utah Jazz (15-49) on Monday night, and we expect the Celtics to cover the -17 spread. With dominant home-court play and strong recent form, Boston is poised to win comfortably.
GAME OVERVIEW:
The Celtics have been impressive at home, posting a 22-11 record and showing solid interior scoring with an average of 117.0 points per game. They rank sixth in the Eastern Conference for offensive rebounds, averaging 11.0 per game, which gives them an edge in second-chance opportunities. Meanwhile, the Jazz are 7-25 on the road and have been outscored in recent games. Despite Utah’s decent rebounding—ranking fourth in the league at 45.9 rebounds per game—their overall offensive efficiency is lacking. The Celtics’ balanced attack and efficient shooting (46.2% from the field) contrast with the Jazz’s struggles, as the latter shoot only 45.8% and allow opponents to knock down extra 1.2% from the field.
KEY PERFORMERS:
Jayson Tatum leads the Celtics with 27.2 points, 8.9 rebounds, and 5.8 assists per game. Derrick White has been in fine form recently, averaging 19.0 points and 4.7 rebounds over the past 10 games. For the Jazz, Keyonte George averages 16.8 points and 5.9 assists, while Kyle Filipowski adds 16.2 points per game.
RECENT FORM & INJURIES:
Over the last 10 games, the Celtics are 8-2, averaging 115.4 points, while the Jazz are 2-8, averaging 114.1 points. With significant injuries on the Jazz side—Walker Kessler, Jordan Clarkson, and others sidelined—the Celtics’ superior home performance and depth should allow them to cover the -17 spread and secure a dominant win.
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Brooklyn Nets
Lakers vs. Nets Preview
New York; Friday, 7:30 p.m. EDT
Our Pick: Lakers -6.5
BOTTOM LINE:
The Los Angeles Lakers (40-22) face the struggling Brooklyn Nets (21-42) on Friday night. Despite playing on the road, the Lakers are expected to cover the -6 spread thanks to their overall offensive firepower and the Nets’ defensive lapses.
GAME OVERVIEW:
Brooklyn has struggled at home, posting a 9-21 record and losing to teams with winning records. The Nets average just 105.1 points per game, while allowing 111.1 points on defense. On the other hand, the Lakers, although 15-15 on the road and 3-4 in close games, have shown the ability to put up strong numbers. With a balanced attack, the Lakers shoot 48.0% from the field – matching the Nets’ opponents’ average – and have the firepower to exploit Brooklyn’s weaknesses.
KEY PERFORMERS:
For the Nets, Nic Claxton leads with 10.1 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 2.2 assists per game. Cameron Johnson has been averaging 16.3 points and 3.7 rebounds over the last 10 games. For the Lakers, even with some key injuries, the team’s depth has been evident. While LeBron James is out, young stars like Rui Hachimura (averaging 13.3 points and 5.2 rebounds) and emerging playmakers continue to step up. Their overall offensive production has been strong in recent games.
RECENT FORM:
In the last 10 games, the Nets have struggled (2-8), averaging 105.2 points per game, while the Lakers have been impressive (8-2), averaging 111.2 points and dominating on defense. With the Nets’ defense faltering and the Lakers’ scoring efficiency intact, Los Angeles is well-positioned to cover the -6 spread and secure a solid win.
INJURIES:
Nets: Cameron Johnson is day-to-day (knee), and De’Anthony Melton is out for the season.
Lakers: Jaxson Hayes is day-to-day (knee), LeBron James is out (leg), Maxi Kleber is out (foot), and Rui Hachimura is day-to-day (knee).
Charlotte Hornets vs. Miami Heat
Heat vs. Hornets Preview
Miami; Monday, 7:30 p.m. EDT
Our Pick: Heat -9
BOTTOM LINE:
The Miami Heat (29-34) host the struggling Charlotte Hornets (15-48) on Monday night, and we expect the Heat to cover the -9 spread. With a solid defensive presence and efficient scoring, Miami looks poised to capitalize on Charlotte’s inefficiencies.
GAME OVERVIEW:
The Heat have been competitive in Eastern Conference games, posting an 18-21 record and holding opponents to 110.9 points on average. They’ve managed to win close contests and are backed by strong interior play and balanced offense. In contrast, the Hornets have been overmatched on the road, struggling in conference play with an 8-32 record and giving up 113.0 points per game—getting outscored by an average of 7.7 points. The Heat’s shooting efficiency, at 45.8% from the field, is slightly lower than the 46.5% allowed by the Hornets, but Miami’s defensive rebounding and transition offense give them a significant edge.
KEY PERFORMERS:
Bam Adebayo leads the Heat with averages of 17.7 points, 10.0 rebounds, and 4.3 assists, anchoring the defense and scoring inside. Tyler Herro, despite recent struggles at 41.9% from beyond the arc, has been a reliable scoring option, averaging 21.3 points per game over the last 10. For the Hornets, Mark Williams is a bright spot, shooting an efficient 58.5% while averaging 15.5 points, though the team’s overall performance remains poor.
RECENT FORM & INJURIES:
In the last 10 games, the Heat are 4-6, averaging 111.3 points per game, while the Hornets are 1-9 and averaging just 101.2 points per game. With key Heat players healthy and significant injury issues hampering Charlotte, Miami’s superior efficiency and defensive intensity should allow them to cover the -9 spread and secure a comfortable win.
Washington Wizards vs. Toronto Raptors
Raptors vs. Wizards Preview
Toronto; Monday, 7:30 p.m. EDT
Our Pick: Raptors -7
BOTTOM LINE:
The Toronto Raptors (21-43) host the Washington Wizards (13-49) on Monday night, and we expect the Raptors to cover the -7 spread. Despite both teams struggling, Toronto’s superior playmaking and defensive edge should help them take control.
GAME OVERVIEW:
The Raptors have had a tough season in Eastern Conference play, but they still show flashes of potential. They rank eighth in rebounding and average 28.3 assists per game, thanks largely to Scottie Barnes, who averages 6.1 assists per contest. On the road, the Wizards have been even worse, posting a 13-49 record and struggling to create scoring opportunities. Offensively, the Wizards are inefficient, shooting just 44.0% from the field, while the Raptors are a bit better at 46.3%. In addition, the Wizards allow an average of 14.3 made 3-pointers per game, compared to the Raptors’ opponents who only knock down 11.5 per game—a significant defensive advantage.
KEY PERFORMERS:
Scottie Barnes leads the Raptors with averages of 19.8 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 6.1 assists, providing the creative spark the team needs. Immanuel Quickley adds value with his consistent 3-point shooting off the bench. For the Wizards, Jordan Poole is the primary scoring option at 21.3 points per game, while Corey Kispert provides additional shooting, though overall production remains inconsistent.
RECENT FORM & INJURIES:
Over the last 10 games, the Raptors have shown resilience despite a rough record, and their offensive rhythm is starting to click. Meanwhile, key Wizards players such as Saddiq Bey and Malcolm Brogdon are sidelined, weakening their lineup further. With these factors in play, the Raptors are well-positioned to cover the -7 spread and secure a much-needed home win.
Indiana Pacers vs. Chicago Bulls
Pacers vs. Bulls Preview
Chicago; Monday, 8 p.m. EDT
Our Pick: Pacers -6
BOTTOM LINE:
The Indiana Pacers (35-27) travel to Chicago (26-38) looking to break their three-game road losing streak. We expect the Pacers to cover the -6 spread thanks to their strong transition game and efficient shooting.
GAME OVERVIEW:
The Bulls have struggled in division matchups, going just 3-11, despite being led by Nikola Vucevic who averages 19.1 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 3.4 assists. In contrast, the Pacers have posted a 20-19 record against Eastern Conference opponents and are known for their fast-break efficiency, averaging 17.0 fast break points per game, with Bennedict Mathurin contributing 4.0 assists per contest.
Defensively, the Bulls allow an average of 115.3 points per game, while the Pacers shoot an efficient 49.1% from the field—2.0% higher than what the Bulls’ opponents have managed. This slight edge in shooting efficiency and overall scoring margin gives Indiana a key advantage.
KEY PERFORMERS:
For the Bulls, besides Vucevic, Coby White adds value with his 3-point shooting, averaging 2.7 makes per game over the last 10 games. On the Pacers’ side, Tyrese Haliburton leads with 18.5 points per game and provides steady play, while Myles Turner contributes by knocking down 2.6 3-pointers per game in the past 10 games.
RECENT FORM:
In their last 10 games, the Bulls have averaged 119.0 points, but their defense has been porous, giving up 120.7 points. Meanwhile, the Pacers are 6-4, averaging 121.5 points while holding opponents to 115.3 points per game.
INJURIES:
For the Bulls, Ayo Dosunmu is out for the season, with Nikola Vucevic and Patrick Williams day-to-day, while Lonzo Ball remains limited. The Pacers are dealing with Haliburton (day-to-day, hip) and Isaiah Jackson (out for season).
With these factors in mind, the Pacers’ balanced offense and improved defense should allow them to cover the -6 spread in this matchup.
Orlando Magic vs. Houston Rockets
Rockets vs. Magic Preview
Houston; Monday, 8 p.m. EDT
Our Pick: Rockets -4.5
BOTTOM LINE:
The Houston Rockets (39-25) host the Orlando Magic (30-35) in a non-conference battle where the Rockets are expected to cover the -4.5 spread. With strong home performance and elite rebounding, Houston is well-equipped to exploit Orlando’s struggles.
GAME OVERVIEW:
Houston is 21-10 at home and leads the league in offensive rebounding, averaging 14.6 boards per game, with N’Faly Dante contributing 4.0 rebounds on average. The Rockets also post an efficient 3-point game, hitting 12.2 per contest, slightly above what the Magic allow. In contrast, Orlando is 12-19 on the road and has a poor record in close games, losing 4 out of 7 one-possession contests. These factors give the Rockets a significant edge in controlling the game and covering the spread.
KEY PERFORMERS:
Jalen Green has been a dynamic force for Houston, averaging 21.1 points and 3.2 assists, while Alperen Sengun adds 19.0 points per game over the last 10 games. For the Magic, Franz Wagner leads with 24.7 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 4.7 assists, and Paolo Banchero has been scoring at a high clip with 28.0 points in his last 10 games.
RECENT FORM:
Over the last 10 games, the Rockets are averaging 114.0 points, 49.3 rebounds, and solid defensive numbers, whereas the Magic have struggled, putting up only 107.6 points per game. Houston’s ability to dominate the boards and control turnovers should help them cover the -4.5 spread.
INJURIES:
The Rockets have minor concerns with Reed Sheppard out due to a thumb injury and Amen Thompson and Fred VanVleet listed as day-to-day. The Magic are missing key contributors with Jalen Suggs and Moritz Wagner out for the season.
With these advantages, the Rockets look set to cover the -4.5 spread and secure a win in this matchup.
Phoenix Suns vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Grizzlies vs. Suns Preview
Memphis, Tennessee; Monday, 8 p.m. EDT
Our Pick: Grizzlies -4
BOTTOM LINE:
The Memphis Grizzlies (40-24) look to snap a four-game home skid as they host the Phoenix Suns (30-34) in Western Conference action. We expect the Grizzlies to cover the -4 spread, thanks to their strong rebounding and efficient scoring.
GAME OVERVIEW:
Memphis is 23-16 in conference games and ranks second in the NBA in total rebounds, averaging 47.9 per game with Zach Edey contributing 7.9 boards. This robust rebounding advantage often leads to second-chance points, a key factor in covering the spread. Meanwhile, the Suns have struggled on the defensive glass, ranking fifth in defensive rebounding at 33.7 per game, led by Nick Richards (6.0 rebounds per game). Offensively, the Suns average 114.4 points per game, slightly below the 116.7 points the Grizzlies allow, indicating that Memphis can outscore Phoenix in close contests.
KEY PERFORMERS:
For Memphis, Desmond Bane has been steady, averaging 18.9 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 5.5 assists, while Ja Morant has put up 19.7 points over the last 10 games. On the Suns’ side, Kevin Durant leads with 26.8 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 4.3 assists, and Devin Booker adds 25.0 points per game over the past 10 games.
RECENT FORM:
In the last 10 games, the Grizzlies are averaging 119.5 points per contest, while the Suns are giving up 124.5 points on average. This defensive edge for Memphis, along with its rebounding prowess, should allow them to control the pace and cover the -4 spread.
INJURIES:
The Grizzlies are without Jaren Jackson Jr. (ankle), Luke Kennard (back), Santi Aldama (calf), and Zyon Pullin (knee). The Suns have Monte Morris (day-to-day, back) and Cody Martin (day-to-day, abdomen) on the injury report.
With these factors in play, the Grizzlies are well-positioned to cover the spread and secure a win in this matchup.
Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Thunder vs. Nuggets Preview
Oklahoma City; Monday, 8 p.m. EDT
Our Pick: Thunder -10.5
BOTTOM LINE:
The Oklahoma City Thunder (53-11) host the Denver Nuggets (41-23) on Monday night. Despite a recent tough loss to Denver, the Thunder are expected to cover the -6 spread, thanks to their superior ball control and efficient scoring.
GAME OVERVIEW:
Oklahoma City has been dominant against Northwest Division opponents, posting an 11-3 record in these matchups. The Thunder excel in winning the turnover battle, averaging 11.1 turnovers per game and boasting a 44-10 record when outdueling opponents on this front. In contrast, the Nuggets, though strong with 24-14 conference play, struggle defensively by allowing an average of 116.5 points per game. The Thunder’s offense is potent, scoring 119.6 points per game—3.1 more than the Nuggets give up—while their ability to force turnovers disrupts Denver’s rhythm.
KEY PERFORMERS:
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads the Thunder with an impressive 32.9 points per game, shooting 52.5% from the field, while Jalen Williams provides valuable support from beyond the arc. On the Nuggets’ side, Jamal Murray has been a consistent scoring threat, averaging 21.3 points per game, though his production has slightly dipped over the past 10 games.
RECENT FORM:
Over their last 10 games, the Thunder have gone 9-1, averaging 128.9 points, 46.1 rebounds, and 30.3 assists per game, showcasing their offensive firepower and defensive intensity. In comparison, the Nuggets have been less consistent, posting a 6-4 record with lower overall efficiency.
INJURIES:
The Thunder are missing Nikola Topic (ACL, season–ending) and Ajay Mitchell (toe). The Nuggets are without Aaron Gordon (day-to-day, calf), DaRon Holmes II (achilles, season–ending), and Julian Strawther (knee). These injury concerns further tilt the matchup in favor of the Thunder covering the -10.5 spread.
Dallas Mavericks vs. San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio Spurs vs. Dallas Mavericks Preview
San Antonio; Monday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Our Pick: Spurs -6.5
BOTTOM LINE:
Dallas comes into tonight’s game on a five-game losing streak, while the San Antonio Spurs aim to snap that trend and cover the -6.5 spread. Despite their struggles, the Spurs have key advantages that make them a strong play.
GAME OVERVIEW:
The Spurs are 18-24 in Western Conference games and have been competitive in close contests. Although they hold a 14-24 record in blowouts, they are poised to exploit weaknesses on the road. The Mavericks, 7-5 against Southwest Division opponents, rank seventh in the West in defensive efficiency, allowing only 114.2 points per game and forcing opponents to shoot just 46.3%. Offensively, the Spurs average 113.4 points per game—just slightly lower than the Mavericks’ scoring output—while the Mavericks’ 13.1 made 3-pointers per game are 0.8 lower than what the Spurs give up. These subtle differences suggest that San Antonio can control the pace and keep the margin within their favor.
TOP PERFORMERS:
For the Spurs, De’Aaron Fox is averaging 23.6 points, 6.2 assists, and 1.5 steals per game, while Harrison Barnes has been a steady presence off the bench with 2.2 made 3-pointers over the last 10 games. On the Mavericks’ side, Klay Thompson contributes 14.3 points per game with solid rebounding, and Naji Marshall has been putting up 15.8 points and 8.4 rebounds in recent games.
RECENT FORM:
Over their last 10 games, the Spurs are averaging 115.7 points per contest, while the Mavericks have struggled, scoring only 108.2 points per game.
INJURIES:
The Spurs are without Charles Bassey (knee) and star Victor Wembanyama, who is out for the season due to illness. The Mavericks are dealing with several injuries, including Jaden Hardy (ankle) and Kyrie Irving (out for season with a knee injury).
With these factors in mind, the Spurs look set to cover the -6.5 spread against a struggling Mavericks team.
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Golden State Warriors
Golden State Warriors vs. Portland Trail Blazers Preview
San Francisco; Monday, 10 p.m. EDT
Our Pick: Warriors -12
BOTTOM LINE:
The Golden State Warriors aim to cover the -12 spread as they host the Portland Trail Blazers. With the Warriors’ recent dominance and superior playmaking, they look to extend their winning streak after a strong performance led by Stephen Curry.
GAME OVERVIEW:
The Warriors are 20-19 in Western Conference games and rank third in the NBA with 29.1 assists per game, led by Curry averaging 6.2 assists. On the defensive side, Golden State is forcing opponents to struggle with 15.2 made 3-pointers per game, which is 2.3 more than the Trail Blazers allow. In contrast, the Trail Blazers are 15-29 in conference play and rank ninth in the West with 44.0 rebounds per game, led by Donovan Clingan averaging 7.1 rebounds. Offensively, the Trail Blazers are averaging 12.5 made 3-pointers per game—slightly below what the Warriors give up.
TOP PERFORMERS:
Stephen Curry is averaging 24.5 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 6.2 assists, proving his all-around value. Jimmy Butler adds 14.8 points and 4.4 rebounds, contributing consistently over the last 10 games. For Portland, Anfernee Simons is putting up 19.3 points and 4.9 assists, while Shaedon Sharpe averages 19.8 points.
RECENT FORM:
Over their last 10 games, the Warriors are 9-1, averaging 120.0 points per game with excellent rebounding and playmaking. The Trail Blazers are 5-5, averaging 117.4 points per game.
INJURIES:
The Warriors are without Brandin Podziemski (day-to-day back) and Jonathan Kuminga (day-to-day ankle). The Trail Blazers miss Deandre Ayton (calf), Matisse Thybulle (ankle), Dalano Banton (day-to-day personal), Deni Avdija (quad), and Robert Williams III (knee).
With superior playmaking and strong recent form, the Warriors are well-positioned to cover the -12 spread.
New York Knicks vs. Sacramento Kings
New York Knicks vs. Sacramento Kings Preview
Sacramento, California; Monday, 10:30 p.m. EDT
Our Pick: Knicks -2.5
BOTTOM LINE:
The New York Knicks enter this matchup against the Sacramento Kings after a three-game skid, and they look to cover the -2.5 spread with strong road play.
GAME OVERVIEW:
The Kings are 16-14 at home and rank sixth in the Western Conference with 26.9 assists per game, led by Domantas Sabonis averaging 6.2 assists. On the road, the Knicks are 19-12 and have excelled in close games, holding a 6-1 record in contests decided by 3 points or fewer.
OFFENSIVE & DEFENSIVE STATS:
The Kings are shooting 47.8% from the field, which is slightly higher than the 47.3% that the Knicks allow. In contrast, the Knicks are shooting 48.8% from the field—2.1% higher than what the Kings’ opponents have managed this season. These differences highlight New York’s ability to perform well on the road, even when facing tough defensive teams like Sacramento.
TOP PERFORMERS:
For the Kings, Zach LaVine is averaging 23.9 points and 4.4 assists, while DeMar DeRozan has been consistent with 24.4 points over the last 10 games. The Knicks are led by Karl-Anthony Towns, who averages 24.2 points and 13.3 rebounds, and OG Anunoby, who has been knocking down 3-pointers.
RECENT FORM:
Over their last 10 games, the Kings average 119.0 points per game, while the Knicks average 111.8. The Knicks’ ability to win close games and their efficient shooting on the road should help them cover the -2.5 spread.
INJURIES:
The Kings are without Jae Crowder (back), Domantas Sabonis (hamstring), and Malik Monk (toe). The Knicks are missing Ariel Hukporti (knee), with Jalen Brunson and Mitchell Robinson listed as day-to-day.
Given their competitive edge in tight games and strong shooting efficiency on the road, the Knicks are well-positioned to cover the -2.5 spread.
