NBA Game Picks & Analysis
Memphis Grizzlies vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Grizzlies vs. Pelicans Preview
New Orleans; Sunday, 7 p.m. EDT
Our Pick: Grizzlies -11
BOTTOM LINE:
The Memphis Grizzlies (39-24) host the New Orleans Pelicans (17-47) on Sunday night. Despite the Pelicans’ efforts to end their three-game slide, we expect the Grizzlies to cover the -11 spread, thanks to their superior overall play and consistency.
GAME OVERVIEW:
The Pelicans have struggled in conference play, posting an 11-31 record and a dismal 5-31 mark against opponents over .500. Their offensive inefficiency is further highlighted by averaging only 12.2 made 3-pointers per game. In contrast, the Grizzlies are 9-5 against division foes and rank sixth in the league with 29.0 assists per game, led by Desmond Bane averaging 5.5 assists. With an efficient shooting percentage of 48.3%—almost on par with what the Pelicans’ opponents post—the Grizzlies have a significant edge on both ends of the floor.
KEY PERFORMERS:
For New Orleans, Trey Murphy III is a bright spot, shooting 45.7% and averaging 21.6 points, while CJ McCollum adds value with an average of 2.8 made 3-pointers over his last 10 games. For Memphis, Desmond Bane leads the team with 18.7 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 5.5 assists, and Ja Morant contributes 16.5 points and five assists per game over his recent stretch.
RECENT FORM & INJURIES:
In the last 10 games, the Pelicans are 5-5, averaging 115.5 points per game, while the Grizzlies are 3-7, averaging 120.2 points per game. With key Pelicans players—Herbert Jones and Dejounte Murray—out for the season, the Grizzlies’ efficiency and depth should allow them to cover the -11 spread comfortably.
Utah Jazz vs. Philadelphia 76ers
76ers vs. Jazz Preview
Philadelphia; Sunday, 7:30 p.m. EDT
Our Pick: 76ers -6.5
BOTTOM LINE:
The Philadelphia 76ers (21-41) host the struggling Utah Jazz (15-48) on Sunday. With a strong home-court presence and solid overall play, the 76ers are expected to cover the -6.5 spread.
GAME OVERVIEW:
Despite an overall tough season, the 76ers have shown flashes of defensive toughness at home, even though they are 11-21 on their own court. They allow 114.0 points per game and have been outscored by an average of 5.0 points per game. In contrast, the Jazz are 7-24 on the road and have a dismal 5-8 record in games decided by 3 points or fewer. Utah’s offensive numbers are underwhelming, averaging 112.4 points per game—just 1.6 points fewer than what the 76ers give up, but this small margin masks their overall struggles.
OFFENSIVE & DEFENSIVE MATCHUPS:
Philadelphia’s shooting efficiency is notable, posting a 45.4% field-goal percentage, which is 2.1 percentage points lower than the 47.5% the Jazz allow to their opponents. Both teams are similar from beyond the arc, with the Jazz averaging about 14.0 made 3-pointers per game compared to the 76ers’ opponents. However, the 76ers’ edge comes from their ability to control the game and limit turnovers.
KEY PERFORMERS:
Tyrese Maxey leads Philadelphia with averages of 26.3 points, 6.1 assists, and 1.8 steals per game, while Kelly Oubre Jr. adds 18.9 points over his last 10 games. For Utah, Walker Kessler provides 11.6 points, 12.4 rebounds, and 2.4 blocks, and Keyonte George contributes 15.8 points with 5.7 assists.
RECENT FORM & INJURIES:
In their last 10 games, the 76ers are 1-9 (averaging 106.6 points), while the Jazz are 2-8 (averaging 113.5 points). With key players healthy for Philadelphia and Utah’s numerous injury issues, the 76ers should cover the -6.5 spread and secure a home win.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Cavaliers vs. Bucks Preview
Milwaukee; Sunday, 8 p.m. EDT
Our Pick: Cavaliers -7
BOTTOM LINE:
The Cleveland Cavaliers (53-10) host the Milwaukee Bucks (36-26) on Sunday night. With a dominant season and a 13-game win streak on the road, the Cavaliers are expected to cover the hefty -16 spread.
GAME OVERVIEW:
Cleveland has been nearly unstoppable, especially against Central Division opponents, where they boast a 10-1 record. The Cavs average an impressive 123.1 points per game—3.2 points more than the 120.4 points the Bucks allow—thanks in large part to their relentless scoring in the paint, where they post 51.0 points per game. Evan Mobley has been a key factor, averaging 11.9 rebounds, which reinforces Cleveland’s interior dominance. Meanwhile, the Bucks, though competitive in conference play (26-17), struggle in close contests, holding a 5-7 record in games decided by 3 points or fewer.
KEY PERFORMERS:
On the Cavaliers side, Donovan Mitchell has been lighting it up, averaging 23.7 points over his last 10 games, while Mobley’s contributions on both ends of the floor are invaluable. For the Bucks, while Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo provide solid scoring—averaging 25.5 and 24.3 points respectively—the overall team balance and consistency have lagged behind Cleveland’s explosive offense. Notably, the Cavaliers average 16.1 made 3-pointers per game—2.5 more than what the Bucks concede—illustrating their potent perimeter game.
RECENT FORM & INJURIES:
Over the last 10 games, the Cavaliers are 10-0, averaging 125.9 points per game, compared to the Bucks’ 8-2 record with 116.6 points per game. With no significant injuries on Cleveland’s side and key Bucks players like Pete Nance and Gary Trent Jr. day-to-day, the Cavaliers’ high-powered offense and strong rebounding should enable them to cover the -16 spread comfortably.
San Antonio Spurs vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Preview
Minneapolis; Sunday, 8 p.m. EDT
Our Pick: Timberwolves -11.5
BOTTOM LINE:
The Minnesota Timberwolves (36-29) host the San Antonio Spurs (26-35) on Sunday night, and we expect the Timberwolves to cover the -11.5 spread. With a balanced offense and strong recent performances, Minnesota should extend its win streak and outplay San Antonio.
GAME OVERVIEW:
The Timberwolves have been solid against Western Conference opponents, posting a 25-18 record on the road and averaging 112.4 points per game, outscoring opponents by 3.4 points on average. In contrast, the Spurs, at 18-23 in conference play, struggle with turnovers, averaging 13.3 per game and winning only 16 of 28 such contests. Offensively, the Timberwolves’ efficient scoring—while giving up just 109.0 points per game—compares favorably to the Spurs, who allow 115.4 points. These numbers indicate that Minnesota’s overall team performance should create a comfortable margin.
KEY PERFORMERS:
For the Timberwolves, Anthony Edwards is leading the charge with 27.2 points, six rebounds, and 4.6 assists per game, while Julius Randle’s contributions further bolster the offense. On the Spurs side, De’Aaron Fox is averaging 23.6 points with 6.3 assists, and Stephon Castle adds 16.8 points per game, though their impact is less consistent.
RECENT FORM & INJURIES:
In the last 10 games, the Timberwolves are 6-4, averaging 117.6 points per game, while the Spurs are 3-7, averaging 115.8 points. With key injuries on the Spurs—Victor Wembanyama is out for the season and Charles Bassey is day-to-day—the Timberwolves’ scoring depth and efficiency give them a strong advantage to cover the -11.5 spread.
Detroit Pistons vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Pistons vs. Trail Blazers Preview
Portland, Oregon; Sunday, 9 p.m. EDT
Our Pick: Pistons -3
BOTTOM LINE:
The Detroit Pistons (35-29) visit the Portland Trail Blazers (28-36) on Sunday, and we expect Detroit to cover the -3 spread. Despite playing on the road, the Pistons’ balanced offense and efficiency give them a clear advantage.
GAME OVERVIEW:
The Trail Blazers have been competitive at home, posting a 16-14 record and excelling in close games (6-3 in contests decided by less than 4 points). However, they face a tough challenge from a Pistons team that has proven itself on the road with an 18-15 record and a solid 7-6 mark in one-possession games. Detroit scores an average of 121.7 points per game over its last 10 outings—about 5.9 points more than what the Blazers allow—while shooting an impressive 51.2% from the field.
KEY PERFORMERS:
For the Pistons, Cade Cunningham has been a standout, averaging 26.8 points and 4.8 rebounds over the last 10 games, while Tobias Harris consistently contributes 13.8 points and 6.0 rebounds. The Trail Blazers rely on Anfernee Simons, who is averaging 22.2 points and 3.1 rebounds, and Shaedon Sharpe, who contributes 17.7 points per game.
RECENT FORM & INJURIES:
In their last 10 games, the Pistons have averaged 121.7 points per game, demonstrating their potent offense and strong overall shooting at 51.2%. Conversely, the Trail Blazers average 118.3 points per game, with a slightly lower shooting efficiency of 46.6%. With key players like Jaden Ivey out for Detroit and several injury concerns for Portland, the Pistons’ superior offensive output and consistency make covering the -3 spread an attractive bet.
Sacramento Kings vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Clippers vs. Kings Preview
Inglewood, California; Sunday, 9:30 p.m. EDT
Our Pick: Clippers -6
BOTTOM LINE:
The Los Angeles Clippers (33-29) host the Sacramento Kings (33-29) on Sunday night, and we expect the Clippers to cover the -6 spread. Fresh off a 123-115 win, the Clippers are poised to use their depth and efficiency to overcome a struggling Kings side.
GAME OVERVIEW:
The Clippers have been competitive within their division, holding a 6-7 record in close games. They excel in transition, averaging 16.4 fast break points per game, with Norman Powell leading the charge at 4.9. In contrast, the Kings are 4-7 in division contests and rank ninth in the West defensively, allowing 115.0 points per game and holding opponents to 46.6% shooting. Additionally, the Clippers shoot 47.1% from the field—slightly higher than the Kings’ allowed rate—giving them a subtle edge on offense.
KEY PERFORMERS:
James Harden has been instrumental for Los Angeles, averaging 25.5 points and 6.3 rebounds over his last 10 games. Derrick Jones Jr. also contributes solidly, averaging 10.4 points and 3.5 rebounds. On the Kings’ side, DeMar DeRozan averages 22.2 points and 4 assists, while Zach LaVine puts up 24.7 points per game. However, their offensive output has been inconsistent.
RECENT FORM & INJURIES:
In the last 10 games, the Clippers are 4-6, averaging 113.2 points per game, while the Kings are 7-3, averaging 120.9 points. With key Kings players sidelined—Domantas Sabonis is out with a hamstring injury and Malik Monk is day-to-day—the Clippers’ balanced attack and defensive efficiency should allow them to cover the -6 spread and secure a comfortable win.
