NBA Game Picks & Analysis
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Charlotte Hornets
Cavaliers vs. Hornets Preview
Charlotte, North Carolina; Friday, 7 p.m. EST
Our Pick: Cavaliers -16
BOTTOM LINE:
The Cleveland Cavaliers (52-10) host the Charlotte Hornets (14-47) on Friday night. Riding a dominant conference record and explosive scoring, the Cavaliers are expected to cover the -16 spread against a struggling Hornets team.
GAME OVERVIEW:
Cleveland has been nearly unstoppable in Eastern Conference play, boasting a 35-7 record. The Cavaliers average 126.9 points per game over their last 10 contests while shooting 48.9% from the field and limiting opponents to just 109.1 points. In contrast, the Hornets have been severely outmatched, going 7-31 in conference games and struggling in close contests, with a 6-6 record in one-possession games. Although Charlotteâs 13.3 made 3-pointers per game nearly matches the 13.2 the Cavs give up, Clevelandâs overall offensive firepower is much greater, averaging 16.2 made 3-pointers per gameâ2.4 more than the Hornets allow.
KEY PERFORMERS:
For the Hornets, Miles Bridges is a bright spot, averaging 20.3 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 3.8 assists, while LaMelo Ball contributes 11.8 points and 3.3 assists over his last 10 games. On the Cavaliersâ side, Donovan Mitchell leads the charge with 24.4 points and 4.3 rebounds, and DeâAndre Hunter has been reliable from beyond, averaging 2.5 made 3-pointers over his recent stretch.
RECENT FORM & INJURIES:
In their last 10 games, the Hornets are 1-9, scoring just 97.6 points per game on 39.6% shooting, while the Cavaliers are 10-0, averaging 126.9 points with strong defensive numbers. With key Hornets playersâGrant Williams, Brandon Miller, and Tre Mannâout for the season, the Cavaliersâ overwhelming firepower and consistency make covering the -16 spread a smart bet.
Utah Jazz vs. Toronto Raptors
Raptors vs. Jazz Preview
Toronto; Friday, 7:30 p.m. EST
Our Pick: Raptors -6
BOTTOM LINE:
The Toronto Raptors (20-42) host the Utah Jazz (15-47) on Friday night. Despite their struggles this season, we expect the Raptors to cover the -6 spread thanks to improvements in rebounding and perimeter efficiency on their home court.
GAME OVERVIEW:
The Raptors have managed a 13-19 record at home and rank eighth in the Eastern Conference in rebounding, averaging 43.9 boards per game with Jakob Poeltl contributing 9.8 rebounds. On the offensive side, Toronto averages 11.4 made 3-pointers per gameâ3.3 fewer than the 14.7 the Jazz allow. The Jazz, 7-23 on the road, are known for their long-range shooting, hitting 14.0 threes per game, and shoot 45.9% overall, 1.2 percentage points lower than the 47.1% that the Raptorsâ opponents typically post. However, the Raptors’ overall improved efficiency and home advantage should enable them to control the game.
KEY PERFORMERS:
RJ Barrett is leading the Raptors with 21.7 points per game, while Immanuel Quickley has been in strong form, averaging 19.4 points over his last 10 games. For Utah, Walker Kessler averages 11.5 points, 12.1 rebounds, and 2.3 blocks, and Keyonte George is contributing 16 points along with 5.9 assists per game over his last 10 contests.
RECENT FORM & INJURIES:
Over the last 10 games, the Raptors are 4-6, averaging 106.4 points per game on 44.7% shooting, while the Jazz are 3-7, averaging 115.7 points per game on 47.0%. With significant injuries affecting Utah (Taylor Hendricks out for season, among others) and the Raptors gradually improving their performance at home, Toronto is well-positioned to cover the -6 spread and keep the game within reach.
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Dallas Mavericks
Grizzlies vs. Mavericks Preview
Dallas; Friday, 7:30 p.m. EST
Our Pick: Mavericks -10
BOTTOM LINE:
The Memphis Grizzlies (38-24) host the Dallas Mavericks (32-31) on Friday night. Despite losing four straight games, the Grizzlies are expected to cover the -10 spread thanks to their efficient play, strong assist numbers, and a favorable matchup on the defensive end.
GAME OVERVIEW:
The Mavericks have been 7-4 against the rest of their division, averaging 114.6 points per game while shooting 47.4% from the field. However, they struggle with consistency, especially on the road. The Grizzlies, 8-5 against division opponents, average 117.0 points per game, which is 2.4 points more than what the Mavericks allow. Defensively, Memphis excels at generating assists, ranking sixth in the NBA with 29.0 per game led by Desmond Bane, who averages 5.4 assists.
KEY PERFORMERS:
For the Mavericks, Kyrie Irving has been a key scorer, averaging 24.7 points and 4.6 assists, while Klay Thompson contributes 14.6 points over his last 10 games. On the Grizzliesâ side, Desmond Bane is leading with 18.5 points, six rebounds, and 5.4 assists, and Jaylen Wells adds 2.2 made 3-pointers per game over his recent 10-game stretch.
RECENT FORM & INJURIES:
In their last 10 games, the Mavericks are 4-6, averaging 109.4 points per game, whereas the Grizzlies are 3-7, averaging 119.9 points per game. With key Mavericks players (such as Kyrie Irving, Anthony Davis, and others) sidelined or day-to-day, the Grizzliesâ superior offensive output and better spacing on defense should allow them to cover the -10 spread comfortably.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Miami Heat
Timberwolves vs. Heat Preview
Miami; Friday, 8 p.m. EST
Our Pick: Timberwolves -5.5
BOTTOM LINE:
The Minnesota Timberwolves (35-29) visit the Miami Heat (29-32) on Friday night, and we expect the Timberwolves to cover the -5.5 spread thanks to their rising offensive production and recent improvements on the road.
GAME OVERVIEW:
The Heat have a respectable 15-12 home record and rank sixth in the league with 34.1 defensive rebounds per game, led by Bam Adebayoâs 7.4 boards. However, the Timberwolves, at 18-15 on the road, have been steadily scoring 112.5 points per game and outscoring opponents by an average of 3.4 points. Although the Heat allow 13.9 made 3-pointers per gameâ1.3 more than the 12.6 that the Timberwolves give upâthe overall team performance and offensive rhythm of Minnesota should tip the scales in their favor.
KEY PERFORMERS:
For Miami, Bam Adebayo is a key contributor, averaging 17.5 points, 10 rebounds, and 4.3 assists, while Tyler Herro has been delivering 22.4 points and six assists in his last 10 games. On the Timberwolves side, Julius Randle is averaging 18.9 points with 7.2 rebounds, and Anthony Edwards has been in top form, putting up 24.3 points and 6.0 rebounds per game over the last 10 games.
RECENT FORM & INJURIES:
In their last 10 games, the Heat are 4-6, averaging 111.4 points per game, whereas the Timberwolves are 5-5, averaging 117.1 points per game. Injuries have affected MiamiâTyler Herro is day-to-day with illness, while others like Dru Smith and Nikola Jovic are outâgiving the Timberwolves an added advantage.
WHY THE TIMBERWOLVES WILL COVER -5.5:
With strong scoring from Edwards and Randle, and improved efficiency on the road, the Timberwolves should win by at least six points, making the -5.5 spread an attractive bet.
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Thunder vs. Trail Blazers Preview<
Oklahoma City; Friday, 8 p.m. EST
Our Pick: Thunder -3
BOTTOM LINE:
The Oklahoma City Thunder (51-11) host the Portland Trail Blazers (28-35) on Friday night, and we expect the Thunder to cover the -3 spread. After Shai Gilgeous-Alexanderâs 41-point performance in their 120-103 win over the Grizzlies, Oklahoma City looks set to control the game.
GAME OVERVIEW:
The Thunder have been impressive in conference play, holding a 30-10 record and winning games by large margins (40-2 in contests decided by 10 or more points). They average 119.6 points per game, which is 5.1 points more than the 114.5 allowed by the Trail Blazers. In contrast, Portland has struggled on the road, posting a 5-8 record against Northwest Division opponents and winning only 6 out of 9 games decided by 3 points or fewer. The Trail Blazers shoot 45.5% from the field, which is 2.0% higher than the 43.5% that opponents of the Thunder have managed.
KEY PERFORMERS:
For the Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is leading the charge with averages of 32.8 points, 5.1 rebounds, 6.2 assists, and 1.8 steals, while Jalen Williams adds 22.8 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 5.7 assists over his last 10 games. On the Trail Blazers side, Shaedon Sharpe is averaging 17.7 points on 45.2% shooting, and Anfernee Simons contributes with 3.2 made 3-pointers per game over his recent 10-game stretch.
RECENT FORM & INJURIES:
Over their last 10 games, the Thunder are 8-2, averaging 127.1 points per game on 49.4% shooting, compared to the Trail Blazersâ 5-5 record at 121.1 points per game on 47.8%. With key injuries affecting both teams, Oklahoma Cityâs balanced scoring and strong rebounding should allow them to cover the -3 spread and secure the win.
Phoenix Suns vs. Denver Nuggets
Nuggets vs. Suns Preview
Denver; Friday, 10 p.m. EST
Our Pick: Nuggets -6.5
BOTTOM LINE:
The Denver Nuggets (40-22) host the Phoenix Suns (29-33) on Friday night, and we expect the Nuggets to cover the -6.5 spread. With dominant interior play and efficient offense, Denver should control the game.
GAME OVERVIEW:
The Nuggets have been excellent against Western Conference opponents, posting a 23-13 record. They lead the NBA with 59.1 points in the paint, and Nikola Jokic averages 16.6 points in the paint. In contrast, the Suns are 19-21 in conference play, scoring 113.8 points per game while shooting 47.7% from the field. Defensively, Denver is solid, making 12.0 three-pointers per gameâonly 1.9 fewer than the 13.9 per game the Suns allowâwhile the Suns themselves average 14.2 threes, slightly more than the 12.0 the Nuggets give up.
KEY PERFORMERS:
For the Nuggets, Jokic leads with averages of 28.8 points, 12.8 rebounds, 10.4 assists, and 1.8 steals. Jamal Murray has been in great form too, averaging 27.2 points over his last 10 games. On the Suns side, Tyus Jones is contributing 10.4 points while shooting 44.6%, and Royce OâNeale adds with 2.9 made three-pointers per game over the last 10.
RECENT FORM & INJURIES:
In their last 10 games, the Nuggets are 7-3, averaging 121.9 points on 50.7% shooting, while the Suns are 3-7, averaging 116.8 points on 49.7%. With key injuries affecting both teams â the Nuggets are without DaRon Holmes II (out for season) and Julian Strawther (out with a knee injury), while the Suns have Bradley Beal and Cody Martin listed as day-to-day â Denverâs overall efficiency and interior dominance should allow them to cover the -6.5 spread and win comfortably.
San Antonio Spurs vs. Sacramento Kings
Kings vs. Spurs Preview
Sacramento, California; Friday, 10 p.m. EST
Our Pick: Kings -6.5
BOTTOM LINE:
The Sacramento Kings (32-29) host the San Antonio Spurs (26-34) on Friday night, and we expect the Kings to cover the -6.5 spread. With efficient scoring and strong defensive rebounding, Sacramento looks poised to win by double digits.
GAME OVERVIEW:
The Kings are 22-20 in Western Conference play and rank third with 33.8 defensive rebounds per game, led by Domantas Sabonis (averaging 10.2 boards) when healthy. Although Sabonis is currently out with a hamstring injury, the Kings have found scoring from other key players. They average 116.8 points per game, which is 1.6 points more than the 115.2 points the Spurs allow. In contrast, the Spurs, with an 18-22 conference record, are a less consistent unit, averaging 113.3 points per gameâ1.8 fewer than the 115.1 points the Kings give up. The Kingsâ overall shooting efficiency, combined with solid bench play, should allow them to extend their advantage.
KEY PERFORMERS:
DeMar DeRozan is leading the Kings with 22.2 points per game while shooting 48.7%, and Zach LaVine has been reliable from beyond, averaging 3.2 made 3-pointers over his last 10 games. For the Spurs, Victor Wembanyama is a dominant presence, averaging 24.3 points, 11 rebounds, 3.7 assists, and 3.8 blocks, while DeâAaron Fox contributes 19.6 points and 4.4 rebounds over his recent 10 games.
RECENT FORM & INJURIES:
In their last 10 games, the Kings are 7-3, averaging 120.5 points, 47.0 rebounds, and 27.9 assists per game, compared to the Spursâ 4-6 record, averaging 115.8 points. With key injuries impacting both teamsâSpursâ Charles Bassey (day-to-day, knee) and Victor Wembanyama (out for season) and the Kingsâ Malik Monk (day-to-day, toe)âthe Kingsâ depth and offensive firepower should allow them to cover the -6.5 spread.
New York Knicks vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Knicks vs. Clippers Preview
New York; Friday, 10:30 p.m. EST
Our Pick: Knicks +7
BOTTOM LINE:
The New York Knicks (40-21) host the Los Angeles Clippers (33-29) on Friday night. With their impressive road form and balanced attack, the Knicks are expected to cover the -7 spread, despite the Clippersâ recent scoring outbursts.
GAME OVERVIEW:
The Knicks have been strong on the road, posting a 19-10 record and allowing only 112.9 points per game. Their efficient offense and solid defensive rotations have helped them maintain a high shooting percentage of 49.3%. In contrast, the Clippers are 20-10 at home but have been involved in several close contests. While the Clippers average 110.9 points per game, the Knicks have the firepower to outscore opponentsâaveraging 117.9 pointsâand to restrict their rivals. The Knicksâ ability to limit opponent shooting is evident, as they give up slightly fewer threes than the Clippers allow.
KEY PERFORMERS:
For New York, Karl-Anthony Towns leads with averages of 24.5 points, 13.4 rebounds, and strong interior play. Jalen Brunson, known for his clutch performances, is contributing 27.7 points and 3.2 rebounds in his recent outings. On the Clippersâ side, while James Harden is averaging 22.1 points, 8.6 assists, and 5.8 rebounds, and Ivica Zubac is a consistent presence with 18.3 points, the overall balance of the Knicks gives them the edge.
RECENT FORM & INJURIES:
The Knicks are 7-3 in their last 10 games, averaging 118.3 points per game. In contrast, the Clippers are 4-6, averaging 113.2 points. With key injuries hampering the ClippersâBen Simmons (knee) and Norman Powell (hamstring) unavailableâthe Knicksâ superior efficiency and scoring depth should allow them to cover the +7 spread comfortably.
