NBA Game Picks & Analysis
New York Knicks vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Preview
Cleveland; Friday, 7 p.m. EST
Our Pick: Knicks +8.5
The Cleveland Cavaliers (45-10) host the New York Knicks (37-18) in a high-stakes Eastern Conference matchup on Friday night. While Cleveland is heavily favored at -8.5, we believe the underdog Knicks will cover the +8.5 spread.
Game Overview
Cleveland has been dominant against Eastern Conference teams, going 30-7, and is 3-3 in games decided by three points or fewer. They are known for scoring inside, averaging 51.0 points in the paint, with solid contributions from Donovan Mitchell (24 points and 4.8 assists) and Evan Mobley (19.3 points, 10.9 rebounds, 3.4 assists, and 2.2 blocks over the last 10 games). The Cavaliers shoot 49.6% from the field, which is 2.4 percentage points higher than the 47.2% their opponents allow.
The Knicks, meanwhile, are 26-11 in conference games and rank second in the East for points scored in the paint at 54.0 per game, led by Karl-Anthony Towns who averages 24.9 points, 13.5 rebounds, and 3.3 assists. Jalen Brunson adds support from the perimeter, although the Knicks make 12.8 three-pointers per gameâonly slightly below what the Cavaliers allow.
Recent Form & Injuries
In their last 10 games, the Cavaliers are 9-1, averaging 124.3 points on 49.5% shooting, while the Knicks are 8-2, posting 125.9 points at 49.6%. With injuries lingering for Clevelandâs Dean Wade (day to day) and for the Knicksâ Josh Hart (day to day) and OG Anunoby (day to day), the matchup is closer than the spread suggests.
Why the Knicks Will Cover +8.5
Despite the Cavaliers’ overall strength, the Knicksâ efficient scoring in the paint and competitive recent form provide them with a strong chance to keep the game within 8.5 points. Expect New Yorkâs balanced offense and resilience to force a tight contest, allowing them to cover the spread.
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Orlando Magic
Grizzlies vs. Magic Preview
Orlando, Florida; Friday, 7 p.m. EST
Our Pick: Magic +3
The Memphis Grizzlies (36-19) head to Orlando to face the struggling Orlando Magic (28-29) in a non-conference matchup. While Memphis is favored by -? (original spread: Grizzlies -2.5), we believe the Magic will cover the +3 spread, thanks to their home-court advantage and potential to upset expectations.
Game Overview
The Magic have been solid at home with a 17-10 record and have shown they can compete in close contests, posting a 3-3 record in games decided by 3 points or fewer. In contrast, the Grizzlies are 15-13 on the road and average a high 123.1 points per game, outscoring opponents by 7.1 points. However, Orlandoâs defensive numbers on the perimeter give them a spark: the Magic shoot 44.0% from the field, which is 1.2 percentage points lower than the 45.2% allowed by Memphis.
Key Performers
Franz Wagner leads Orlando with 25.1 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 4.9 assists, while Paolo Banchero has been impressive with 21.4 points over his last 10 games. For the Grizzlies, Jaren Jackson Jr. is averaging 22.9 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 1.6 blocks, and Desmond Bane contributes 16.5 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 3.9 assists in his recent stretch.
Recent Form & Injuries
Over their last 10 games, the Magic are 4-6, scoring 106.1 points on 44.6% shooting, compared to the Grizzliesâ 6-4 record with 120.7 points per game. With key absences for Orlando (Moritz Wagner out for season; Jalen Suggs day-to-day) and a missing Cam Spencer for Memphis, the matchup is wide open.
Why the Magic Will Cover +3
Despite their struggles on the road overall, the Magicâs ability to stay competitive in close games and perform well at home suggests they can keep the margin tight. Expect Orlandoâs efficient defense and balanced scoring to limit the Grizzliesâ firepower, allowing the Magic to cover the modest +3 spread.
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Washington Wizards
Bucks vs. Wizards Preview
Washington; Friday, 7 p.m. EST
Our Pick: Bucks -5.5
The Milwaukee Bucks (30-24) host the Washington Wizards (9-45) on Friday in an Eastern Conference matchup that many expect to be a comfortable win for Milwaukee. Although the official spread is -7, we believe the Bucks will cover a more conservative -5.5 spread due to Washingtonâs struggles and the Bucksâ overall consistency.
Game Overview
The Wizards have been among the worst in conference play, holding a 7-23 record and allowing a league-high 122.0 points per game on 47.6% shooting. They also average 13.0 made three-pointers per game, slightly below the 13.9 that the Bucks give up. Meanwhile, the Bucks have been solid against Eastern Conference opponents, posting a 23-16 record and a balanced performance even against teams with winning records (12-12). The Bucks average 114.6 points per game, slightly outscoring opponents by 1.4 points.
Key Performers
For Washington, Bilal Coulibaly is averaging 12.4 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 3.5 assists, while Jordan Poole has been hot, putting up 20.5 points over his last 10 games. Milwaukee is led by Giannis Antetokounmpo, who averages 31.5 points, 12.1 rebounds, and 5.8 assists, with Damian Lillard adding 2.7 made three-pointers per game recently.
Recent Form
Over their last 10 games, the Wizards are 3-7, averaging 112.0 points on 44.7% shooting, while the Bucks are 4-6, scoring 113.2 points on 45.6%. Despite the slight dip in recent form, Milwaukeeâs overall performance, especially on defense, remains strong.
Why the Bucks Will Cover -5.5
With Washington allowing a high number of points and struggling to defend the perimeter, the Bucksâ offensive firepowerâled by Giannis and supported by Lillardâshould create a sufficient margin. Expect Milwaukeeâs efficient scoring and disciplined defense to overcome any recent fluctuations, making it likely theyâll cover the modest -5.5 spread on Friday night.
Miami Heat vs. Toronto Raptors
Raptors vs. Heat Preview
Toronto; Friday, 7:30 p.m. EST
Our Pick: Raptors +3
The Miami Heat (25-28) visit the Toronto Raptors (17-38) in an Eastern Conference matchup that could be much closer than the spread suggests. Despite Miamiâs recent 118-113 overtime loss to the Dallas Mavericksâwhere Tyler Herro scored 40âToronto looks to keep the game competitive. We believe the Raptors will cover the +3 spread.
Team Overview
The Raptors have struggled in conference play, holding an 11-24 record and a 9-30 mark against teams above .500. Despite these challenges, they average around 110.6 points per game and have shown flashes of competitiveness. On the road, the Heat are 14-16 and are known for their stingy defense, allowing only 110.7 points while holding opponents to 46.2% shooting.
Key Performers
For Toronto, Scottie Barnes leads the charge, averaging 20.1 points on 44.7% shooting, while Immanuel Quickley has been a spark from beyond with 1.5 made three-pointers in his last 10 games. For Miami, Tyler Herro continues to shine, averaging 23.9 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 5.5 assists, with Nikola Jovic adding support from the perimeter.
Recent Form & Injuries
Over their last 10 games, the Raptors are 4-6, scoring 107.2 points on 44.7% shooting, while the Heat are also 4-6, posting 105.9 points on 44.6%. Key injuries hamper both teams, with the Raptors missing Brandon Ingram and P.J. Tucker, and the Heat sidelining Dru Smith and others.
Why the Raptors Will Cover +3
Even as underdogs, Torontoâs resilience and ability to grind out close gamesâcombined with their home-court advantageâshould keep the final margin within 3 points. Expect the Raptors to battle hard, making the +3 spread a solid bet.
Detroit Pistons vs. San Antonio Spurs
Pistons vs. Spurs Preview
Austin, Texas; Friday, 8:30 p.m. EST
Our Pick: Pistons -4
The Detroit Pistons (29-26) host the San Antonio Spurs (24-29) on Friday in a crucial non-conference matchup. Detroit looks to extend its four-game win streak on the road, while the Spurs aim to bounce back at home.
Game Overview
The Spurs are 14-13 at home and rank eighth in the league with 34.0 defensive rebounds per game, led by Victor Wembanyama who averages 9.2 rebounds. In contrast, the Pistons are 15-13 on the road, although they are 12-19 against opponents with a winning record. Both teams are evenly matched from beyond the arcâthe Spurs make 13.8 threes per game, which is the same number the Pistons give up, while Detroit itself averages 13.0 threes, slightly fewer than what the Spurs allow.
Key Performers
For San Antonio, Wembanyama is a standout, averaging 24.3 points, 11 rebounds, 3.7 assists, and 3.8 blocks. Stephon Castle has been productive as well, averaging 17.6 points and 3.1 assists over his last 10 games. On the Pistonsâ side, Tobias Harris is scoring 13.5 points and grabbing 5.9 rebounds, while Cade Cunningham leads with 25.2 points and 5.1 rebounds over his recent 10-game stretch.
Recent Form & Injuries
Over their last 10 games, the Spurs are 4-6 (averaging 117.9 points) and the Pistons are 6-4 (averaging 119.6 points). With Jaden Ivey out for Detroit and key Spurs players like Victor Wembanyama out for the season, the Pistonsâ consistent offense and rebounding give them the edge.
Why the Pistons Will Cover -4
Despite a tough schedule, Detroitâs efficient play and strong recent performance should allow them to control the game, keeping the margin within a four-point spread.
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Dallas Mavericks
Pelicans vs. Mavericks Preview
Dallas; Friday, 8:30 p.m. EST
Our Pick: Mavericks -5.5
The New Orleans Pelicans (13-42) host the Dallas Mavericks (30-26) after CJ McCollum scored 43 points in New Orleansâ 140-133 overtime win over the Sacramento Kings. Despite the Pelicansâ recent spark, the Mavericks are favored to cover the -5.5 spread.
Game Overview
Dallas has been solid against division opponents, going 6-4, and ranks seventh in the West in limiting opponent scoringâallowing only 113.5 points per game on 45.9% shooting. Meanwhile, the Pelicans have struggled, posting a 1-8 record against teams in their division and turning the ball over at an average of 13.6 times per game. The Mavericks make 13.1 three-pointers per game, just slightly below the 14.5 the Pelicans allow, and they hold an edge in overall shooting efficiency.
Key Performers
Kyrie Irving leads Dallas with averages of 24.6 points and 4.8 assists, while Klay Thompson has been a reliable three-point shooter, averaging 3.3 makes per game over the last 10. For New Orleans, Trey Murphy III is averaging 22.4 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 3.6 assists, and CJ McCollum contributes with 2.8 threes per game.
Recent Form & Injuries
Over the last 10 games, the Mavericks are 6-4, averaging 118.6 points on 48.9% shooting, while the Pelicans are 1-9, scoring 115.0 points on 46.3%. With significant injuries on the Pelicansâ sideâincluding Dejounte Murray and Herbert Jones out for the seasonâand key Mavericks players managing minor issues, Dallasâ overall depth and efficiency should prevail.
Why the Mavericks Will Cover -5.5
Dallasâ strong offensive production and disciplined defense, especially on the perimeter, are expected to create a comfortable margin, allowing them to cover the modest 5.5-point spread in this matchup.
