NBA Game Picks & Analysis
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Indiana Pacers
Grizzlies vs. Pacers Preview
Thursday at Bankers Life Fieldhouse, 7:00 p.m. EST
Our Pick: Pacers +2
The Indiana Pacers (30-23) host the Memphis Grizzlies (36-18) on Thursday after a thrilling overtime win over the Wizards. Although Memphis comes in favored by 2, we believe the Pacers will cover the +2 spread.
Game Breakdown
Indiana has been strong at home, posting a 14-9 record and holding a 15-14 mark in games decided by 10 or more points. The Pacers average 116.0 points per game, almost exactly matching the 115.8 points the Grizzlies allow. In contrast, Memphis is 15-12 on the road and is known for its defensive prowess, ranking second in the West with 34.5 defensive rebounds per game, led by Santi Aldama at 5.0 boards.
Key Performers
Tyrese Haliburton leads the Pacers with 17.8 points and 8.5 assists, providing consistent playmaking. Pascal Siakam has been in fine form recently, averaging 23.1 points over his last 10 games. For the Grizzlies, Santi Aldama contributes 12.8 points and 6.7 rebounds, while Jaren Jackson Jr. averages 24.8 points and 4.7 rebounds in recent outings.
Recent Form
Over their last 10 games, the Pacers are 6-4, averaging 119.7 points on 48.0% shooting, while the Grizzlies are 7-3, putting up 123.3 points on 49.0% from the field.
Why the Pacers Will Cover +2
With disciplined defense and efficient scoring at home, the Pacers can keep the game close. Their ability to limit turnovers and execute in tight contests will allow them to challenge the Grizzliesâ firepower. Despite Memphisâ offensive strengths, Indianaâs home advantage and balanced play make covering the +2 spread a solid bet.
Boston Celtics vs. Philadelphia 76ers
76ers vs. Celtics Preview
Philadelphia; Tuesday, 7 p.m. EST
Our Pick: 76ers +7
The Philadelphia 76ers (20-34) visit the Boston Celtics (39-16) in a tough Eastern Conference matchup at Wells Fargo Center. Boston is favored by -8, but we believe the 76ers will cover the +7 spread.
Game Overview
The Celtics are 28-9 against conference opponents and are known for their stingy defense, allowing just 108.1 points per game and holding opponents to 45.0% shooting. In contrast, the 76ers have struggled in conference play at 14-18, giving up 112.9 points per game and being outscored by an average of 3.8 points. Despite these numbers, the 76ers score 109.1 points per game, nearly matching what the Celtics allow, suggesting closer contests than the spread indicates.
Key Performers
For Philadelphia, Tyrese Maxey has been lighting it up recently, averaging 28.4 points over the last 10 games, while Kelly Oubre Jr. contributes 14.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 1.5 steals. On the Celtics side, Jayson Tatum is averaging 27 points along with 8.7 rebounds and 5.6 assists, and Kristaps Porzingis is chipping in 18.5 points in his recent outings.
Recent Form
In the last 10 games, the 76ers are 3-7, averaging 113.6 points, while the Celtics are 8-2, scoring 117.4 points per game. The 76ers have shown they can remain competitive in tight contests.
Why the 76ers Will Cover +7
Despite being underdogs, Philadelphiaâs resilience in close games and strong individual performances can keep the game within reach. With key players like Maxey carrying the offense and potential disruptions from Celtics injuries (Xavier Tillman Sr. and Jrue Holiday day to day), the 76ers have a good chance to stay close and cover the +7 spread.
Orlando Magic vs. Atlanta Hawks
Hawks vs. Magic Preview
Atlanta; Thursday, 7:30 p.m. EST
Our Pick: Hawks +1
The Atlanta Hawks (26-29) visit the Orlando Magic (27-29) in an Eastern Conference clash on Thursday. Despite being slight underdogs, we believe the Hawks will cover the +1 spread.
Game Overview
The Magic have struggled recently, while the Hawks have shown flashes of offensive prowess. Orlando ranks seventh in the East and is 6-3 against Southeast Division foes, averaging 11.3 offensive rebounds per game, led by Goga Bitadze at 2.7 rebounds. In contrast, Atlanta is 19-14 in conference play and ranks second in the league with 29.4 assists per game. Trae Young spearheads the Hawks, averaging 23.7 points and 11.5 assists. These numbers highlight Atlantaâs ability to create scoring opportunities.
Statistical Snapshot
The Hawks average 116.7 points per game, outscoring opponents by 11.3 points, while the Magic allow only 105.4. On the perimeter, the Hawks give up 13.2 three-pointers per game, just 0.7 more than the 13.1 the team makes. Additionally, the Magicâs field-goal percentage of 43.9% is 4.2 percentage points lower than the 48.1% allowed by their opponents.
Recent Form & Key Players
Over the last 10 games, the Hawks are 4-6, averaging 118.7 points on 47.7% shooting, while the Magic are 4-6, posting 106.8 points on 44.5%. Alongside Young, Zaccharie Risacher has been a spark from beyond. For the Magic, Franz Wagner leads with 25.1 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 4.9 assists.
Why the Hawks Will Cover +1
Given their strong assist numbers and ability to push the pace, the Hawksâ offensive creativity should keep the game close. With Young orchestrating play and the Magicâs defense struggling from the field, Atlanta is poised to cover the modest +1 spread.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Brooklyn Nets
Cavaliers vs. Nets Preview
Brooklyn; Thursday, 7:30 p.m. EST
Our Pick: Nets +13
The Cleveland Cavaliers (44-10) host the Brooklyn Nets (20-34) on Thursday in a highly anticipated Eastern Conference matchup. While Cleveland is heavy favorites at -13, the Nets have shown resilience and are coming off three straight wins, making them a tempting option to cover the +13 spread.
Game Overview
The Cavaliers have dominated Eastern opponents, going 29-7 in conference play, and are known for their inside scoring â averaging 51.0 points in the paint, led by Evan Mobleyâs 12.0 rebounds per game. They shoot an efficient 49.8% from the field, which is 2.0 percentage points higher than the 47.8% allowed by Netsâ opponents. In contrast, the Nets struggle in conference play at 11-23, but have a 5-4 record in close games decided by less than four points, hinting at their competitiveness despite the record.
Key Performers
For Brooklyn, Nic Claxton averages 10.1 points and 7.5 rebounds, while Keon Johnson has been on fire with 15.2 points over his last 10 games. On the Cavaliersâ side, Darius Garland leads with 21.6 points and 6.7 assists, and Donovan Mitchell adds 23.2 points, helping Cleveland maintain their offensive edge.
Recent Form & Matchup Notes
In the last 10 games, the Nets average just 99.1 points, while the Cavaliers post 126.4 points. With injuries affecting both teamsâBrooklyn missing Cam Thomas, Bojan Bogdanovic, DeâAnthony Melton, and Noah Clowney, and Cleveland dealing with Isaac Okoro, Dean Wade, and Ty Jerome on a day-to-day basisâthe game could be much closer than expected.
Why the Nets Will Cover +13
The Nets have proven they can keep games tight, as seen in their 5-4 record in close contests. Their recent winning streak and gritty performances suggest that despite Clevelandâs offensive firepower, the Nets can limit the margin. If the underdogs play with determination and capitalize on any defensive lapses from the Cavaliers, Brooklyn could keep the final score within 13 points, making the +13 spread a smart bet.
Chicago Bulls vs. New York Knicks
Knicks vs. Bulls Preview
New York; Thursday, 7:30 p.m. EST
Our Pick: Knicks -11.5
The New York Knicks (36-18) host the Chicago Bulls (22-33) in a crucial Eastern Conference matchup on Thursday. Fresh off a thrilling 149-148 overtime win over the Atlanta Hawks â with Karl-Anthony Towns scoring 44 points â the Knicks are looking to build momentum and cover the -11.5 spread.
Game Breakdown
New York has excelled against Eastern Conference foes, posting a 25-11 record while limiting opponents to just 112.5 points per game on 47.3% shooting. In contrast, Chicago is 17-20 in conference play and has struggled defensively, giving up 116.0 points per game. The Knicksâ average of 118.4 points per game gives them a slight edge over the Bulls, who also average 116.0 points, suggesting that the home teamâs defense will be key.
Key Performers
Karl-Anthony Towns leads the Knicks with 24.7 points, 13.4 rebounds, and 3.3 assists, while Jalen Brunson has been a consistent force, averaging 25.9 points over his last 10 games. For the Bulls, Coby White is averaging 18.2 points on 42.7% shooting, and Josh Giddey has been contributing with 1.9 made three-pointers per game over his recent stretch.
Recent Form & Injuries
Over their last 10 games, the Knicks are 8-2, averaging 124.5 points and showcasing solid defensive numbers. The Bulls, however, are 3-7 and have been outscored by opponents, struggling to keep close contests. Injuries have hit Chicago, with Lonzo Ball and Adama Sanogo listed as day-to-day, while New York manages minor issues.
Why the Knicks Will Cover -11.5
With a dominant home record, strong defensive performance, and high-powered offense led by Towns and Brunson, the Knicks are poised to control the game and win by a comfortable margin, making the -11.5 spread an attractive bet.
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Clippers vs. Bucks Preview
Thursday at Fiserv Forum, 8 p.m. EST
Our Pick: Bucks +3
The Los Angeles Clippers (31-23) travel to Milwaukee to take on the Milwaukee Bucks (29-24) in a key Western Conference matchup on Thursday night. After Norman Powell scored 41 points in their 120-116 overtime win over the Utah Jazz, the Clippers are riding high. However, we believe the Bucks will cover the +3 spread in what should be a close contest.
Game Overview
The Bucks have been strong at home with an 18-9 record against Western Conference opponents and an 11-12 record against teams over .500. Milwaukee averages 114.6 points per game and relies on its sharp perimeter shooting, connecting on 14.4 three-pointers per gameâslightly above the 13.3 allowed by the Clippers. Even though the Bucks are missing Giannis Antetokounmpo due to a calf injury, their core remains potent.
On the Clippersâ side, they are 12-13 on the road and have been efficient on offense, averaging 117.1 points per game over their last 10 games while shooting 48.2% from the field. Ivica Zubac is a key factor, averaging 15.2 points and 12.6 rebounds, while Norman Powell continues to contribute with 23.7 points per game.
Why the Bucks Will Cover +3
Despite the absence of their star, the Bucksâ strong home-court presence and disciplined defense should keep the game close. With Damian Lillard averaging 25.8 points and 7.5 assists, along with Gary Trent Jr.âs recent scoring surge, Milwaukeeâs balanced attack is expected to control the tempo. Their efficient three-point shooting and solid ball movement will likely limit the Clippersâ offensive bursts, enabling the Bucks to cover the modest +3 spread in a tightly contested game.
Charlotte Hornets vs. Denver Nuggets
Nuggets vs. Hornets Preview
Denver; Thursday, 9 p.m. EST
Our Pick: Nuggets -17.5
The Denver Nuggets (36-19) host the Charlotte Hornets (14-39) on Thursday, and the matchup looks heavily in favor of Denver, who are expected to cover the -17.5 spread. The Nuggets have been dominant at home, posting a 19-8 record, while the Hornets have struggled on the road, winning only 5 out of 19 games.
Denver is one of the most efficient teams in the West, shooting 51.0% from the fieldâabout 4.7 percentage points higher than what the Hornets allow. They also average 106.1 points per game, significantly lower than the 115.9 points per game that opponents score against the Hornets. The Nuggets boast strong ball movement as they lead the conference with 31.3 assists per game, with Nikola Jokic averaging 10.2 assists on top of his impressive stat line of 29.8 points, 12.6 rebounds, and 10.2 assists. Jamal Murray has also been reliable, averaging 23.4 points and six assists over his last 10 games.
On the other side, Charlotte has been inconsistent. Although LaMelo Ball averages 27.3 points and Miles Bridges puts up 22.3 points with 8.7 rebounds and 3.7 assists over his last 10, the Hornetsâ overall shooting has been a concern, posting only 41.6% in recent games.
Recent form clearly favors Denver, as they are 8-2 in their last 10 contests, averaging 125.8 points on 53.9% shooting, compared to the Hornetsâ 2-8 record and 100.1 points per game. With key players missing on both sides, Denverâs home-court advantage and offensive efficiency should allow them to cover the hefty -17.5 spread.
Phoenix Suns vs. San Antonio Spurs
Suns vs. Spurs Preview
Austin, Texas; Thursday, 9:30 p.m. EST
Our Pick: Suns -2.5
The Phoenix Suns (26-28) head to Austin to face the San Antonio Spurs (23-29) in a Western Conference clash. The Suns are looking to break a four-game road skid and are favored by -2.5. They have been 17-17 against Western opponents and excel when they limit turnoversâwinning 13-5 in such games while averaging 13.2 turnovers per match.
The Spurs, meanwhile, are 16-18 in conference play and have been 5-6 in contests decided by 3 points or fewer. San Antonio is shooting 46.1% from the field, just 0.1 percentage points below the 46.2% the Suns allow, which gives Phoenix a slight edge on defense. The Suns are shooting 47.4% from the fieldâ1.0% higher than the percentage the Spursâ opponents have achieved this season.
Key Performers
For Phoenix, Devin Booker leads the scoring with 26.2 points and 6.7 assists per game, while Kevin Durant adds 19.6 points and 3.5 assists over his last 10 games. On the Spursâ side, Victor Wembanyama is averaging 24.3 points, 11 rebounds, 3.7 assists, and 3.8 blocks, and Harrison Barnes has been steady from deep.
Recent Form & Injuries
Over their last 10 games, the Spurs are 3-7 (averaging 115.7 points, opponents 120.6), while the Suns are 3-7 (averaging 115.3 points, opponents 121.0). With key players for the SunsâGrayson Allen, Bradley Beal, and Bookerâlisted as day to day, the offensive firepower remains intact.
Why the Suns Will Cover -2.5
Despite recent struggles, Phoenixâs efficient shooting and strong performances from Booker and Durant should overcome the Spursâ challenges. Their ability to control turnovers and maintain a higher field-goal percentage on the road gives the Suns a clear advantage, making it likely theyâll cover the -2.5 spread.
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Lakers vs. Trail Blazers Preview
Thursday at Moda Center, Portland, OR, 10 p.m. EST
Our Pick: Lakers -2
The Los Angeles Lakers (32-21) visit the Portland Trail Blazers (23-32) on Thursday. Although the Blazers are trying to extend their six-game home win streak, we expect the Lakers to cover the -2 spread with their superior efficiency and recent form.
Game Overview
Portland has been competitive this season, holding a 14-27 record against Western Conference opponents and limiting scoring to 114.8 points per game on 47.6% shooting. However, the Blazersâ overall field-goal percentage sits at 45.1%, leaving room for improvement. In contrast, the Lakers are 20-12 in conference play and rank sixth in defensive efficiency, holding opponents to just 112.2 points per game on 46.5% shooting. The Lakers also make 12.4 three-pointers per gameâonly slightly lower than what the Blazers allow.
Key Performers
For the Trail Blazers, Anfernee Simons is averaging 18.6 points with five assists, while Deni Avdija has been contributing 15.6 points over his last 10 games. On the Lakersâ side, LeBron James is leading the charge, averaging 26.5 points while maintaining solid efficiency, and Anthony Davis provides strong interior defense and scoring. Their complementary play has helped the Lakers average 119.2 points per game over their last 10, while shooting an impressive 51.2%.
Why the Lakers Will Cover -2
With a dominant home record and a high-powered offense led by LeBron and Davis, the Lakers are well-positioned to control the game. Their superior defensive numbers and ability to limit opponent scoring give them a clear edge. Expect Los Angeles to overcome any resistance from Portland and cover the modest -2 spread on Thursday night.
