NBA Game Picks & Analysis
Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets
Warriors vs. Rockets Preview
Thursday at Toyota Center, 8 p.m. EST
Our Pick: Rockets -1.5
The Houston Rockets (34-20) host the Golden State Warriors (27-27) in a Western Conference showdown. The Rockets look to strengthen their position in the top four of the West, while the Warriors are battling to stay in the play-in race.
Game Breakdown
Houston has been solid in conference play, boasting a 20-12 record against Western Conference opponents. Though they rank last in the West in assists per game (22.6), Fred VanVleet leads the team with 5.8 per contest. The Rocketsâ defense has been a bright spot, allowing just 108.7 points per game.
Golden State sits at 17-19 against the West and has been inconsistent, especially in close games. The Warriors average 112.1 points per game but struggle defensively, allowing 114.3 points per contest over their last 10 games. Stephen Curry remains their key offensive weapon, averaging 23.4 points and 6.1 assists.
The Rockets average 12.1 made three-pointers per game, just below the Warriors’ 13.4 allowed per contest. Alperen Sengun continues to be a dominant presence for Houston, averaging 19 points, 10.4 rebounds, and 4.9 assists.
Why the Rockets Will Cover -1.5
Houstonâs strong defense gives them the edge against a Warriors team that has struggled with consistency. The Rocketsâ ability to limit opponentsâ scoring, paired with their physicality inside, will force Golden State into difficult shots. With home-court advantage and Sengun controlling the paint, expect Houston to cover the -1.5 spread.
Sacramento Kings vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Kings vs. Pelicans Preview
Thursday at Smoothie King Center, 8 p.m. EST
Our Pick: Pelicans +8.5
The New Orleans Pelicans (12-42) look to snap a 10-game losing streak as they host the Sacramento Kings (28-26) in a Western Conference matchup.
Game Breakdown
New Orleans has struggled in conference play, holding a 6-26 record against Western opponents. Despite their poor record, they rank ninth in the NBA in fast break points (16.8 per game), with Trey Murphy III leading the way at 4.6 per contest.
Sacramento, sitting at 19-17 in the conference, has been inconsistent, especially in games decided by double digits, where they hold a narrow 12-11 record. The Kings are shooting 47.5% from the field, slightly below the 48.5% New Orleans allows.
The Pelicans average 12.2 made three-pointers per game, while the Kings allow 14.4 makes per game, a potential area New Orleans can exploit. Zion Williamson remains the focal point for the Pelicans, averaging 22 points over his last 10 games. For Sacramento, Domantas Sabonis continues to be dominant inside, averaging 20.4 points, 14.3 rebounds, and 6.3 assists.
Why the Pelicans Will Cover +8.5
Despite their losing streak, the Pelicans have been competitive, averaging 113.6 points per game over their last 10 outings. Sacramentoâs defense has been shaky, allowing 120.9 points per game in that same span. With home-court advantage and Zionâs ability to dominate inside, New Orleans has a strong chance to keep this game close and cover the +8.5 spread.
Miami Heat vs. Dallas Mavericks
Heat vs. Mavericks Preview
Thursday at American Airlines Center, 8:30 p.m. EST
Our Pick: Mavericks +1.5
The Dallas Mavericks (29-26) host the Miami Heat (25-27) in a matchup between two teams fighting for playoff positioning in their respective conferences.
Game Breakdown
Dallas has been solid at home with a 16-11 record and ranks ninth in the Western Conference in rebounding, averaging 44.3 boards per game. Miami, meanwhile, is just 13-16 on the road and struggles with turnovers, averaging 12.7 per game. The Heat are 12-10 when committing fewer turnovers than their opponent, making ball control a key factor in this game.
Both teams rely on the three-ball. The Mavericks make 13.1 three-pointers per game, while the Heat allow 13.8. Miami hits 14.1 threes per game, slightly more than the 13.1 Dallas surrenders.
Kyrie Irving has been on fire, coming off a 42-point performance in a win against Golden State. Heâs averaging 22.6 points over his last 10 games. For Miami, Bam Adebayo is putting up 16.7 points and 10.1 rebounds per game, while Nikola Jovic has been a key perimeter threat, averaging 2.6 threes per game in his last 10 contests.
Why the Mavericks Will Cover +1.5
Dallas has the home-court edge, and with Irving playing at an elite level, the Mavericks have a strong chance to outscore a Miami team that has struggled offensively, averaging just 104.2 points over their last 10 games. The Heatâs recent defensive lapsesâallowing 112.4 points per gameâgive Dallas a great opportunity to secure a win and cover the spread.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Preview
Thursday at Target Center, 8:30 p.m. EST
Our Pick: Thunder -9
The Oklahoma City Thunder (44-9) look to extend their seven-game win streak as they visit the Minnesota Timberwolves (30-25) in a Western Conference showdown.
Game Breakdown
Minnesota has been solid in conference play with a 22-14 record, averaging 111.4 points per game while outscoring opponents by 3.2 points. However, they face a tough challenge against an Oklahoma City team that boasts the best record in the West and an elite defense, allowing just 104.7 points per game.
The Thunder have dominated their division with a 7-1 record and thrive on limiting mistakes, going 36-9 when committing fewer turnovers than their opponents. Oklahoma City averages just 11.2 turnovers per game, making them one of the most efficient teams in the league.
Both teams rely on perimeter scoring. The Thunder hit 14.0 three-pointers per game, while the Timberwolves allow 12.6. Minnesotaâs Anthony Edwards continues to lead the way offensively, averaging 27.5 points per game, while Jalen Williams has stepped up for OKC, putting up 21.0 points and 5.5 rebounds.
Why the Thunder Will Cover -9
Oklahoma City is in elite form, winning eight of their last 10 while averaging 124.9 points. Their defense has also been dominant, holding opponents to just 108.3 points. With Minnesota missing key players like Donte DiVincenzo and Julius Randle, the Thunderâs depth and efficiency should allow them to control the game and cover the spread comfortably.
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Utah Jazz
Clippers vs. Jazz Preview
Thursday at Delta Center, 9 p.m. EST
Our Pick: Clippers -9.5
The Los Angeles Clippers (29-23) head to Salt Lake City to take on the struggling Utah Jazz (13-40) in a Western Conference matchup. The Clippers sit sixth in the West and continue to push for playoff positioning, while the Jazz remain near the bottom of the standings.
Game Breakdown
Utah has struggled mightily against conference opponents, going just 5-31 in the West. The Jazz allow 123.2 points per game over their last 10 contests and rank ninth in defensive rebounding, with Walker Kessler leading the way at 7.3 boards per game. Utah scores 112.2 points per game but struggles defensively, allowing opponents to shoot 47.8% from the field.
Meanwhile, the Clippers are 18-18 against the West, averaging 110.8 points per game while outscoring opponents by 2.9 points per game. They are led by James Harden, who averages 21.3 points and 5.7 rebounds, while Norman Powell has been a strong contributor from deep, hitting 2.2 three-pointers per game. Over their last 10 games, Los Angeles has posted a 5-4 record, averaging 116.1 points and shooting an efficient 48.6% from the field.
Why the Clippers Will Cover -9.5
The Clippersâ strong defense (allowing just 107.9 points per game) gives them a significant edge against a Utah team that struggles on both ends. With Harden and Powell leading the offense, and Utahâs defense continuing to leak points, expect Los Angeles to control the pace and cover the -9.5 spread comfortably.
