NBA Game Picks & Analysis
Golden State Warriors vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Warriors vs. Bucks Preview
Monday at Fiserv Forum, 8 p.m. EST
Our Pick: Bucks: +7
The Golden State Warriors visit the Milwaukee Bucks at Fiserv Forum on Monday. Golden State just lost to the Lakers, defeated the Bulls, and faces the Mavericks, Rockets, and Kings next. This season, the Warriors average 111.9 points on 44.5% shooting while allowing 111.9 points on 46.2% shooting. Jimmy Butler leads the scoring at 25 points, while Stephen Curry adds 23 points and 6.1 assists. Jonathan Kuminga is another double-digit scorer, and Buddy Hield collects 3.3 rebounds. The Warriors connect on 36.3% from deep and 72.4% from the line, allowing 35.9% three-point shooting to opponents and grabbing 46 rebounds per game.
Meanwhile, Milwaukee looks to bounce back after losing to the Hawks, beating the 76ers, and preparing for matchups against the Timberwolves, Clippers, and Wizards. The Bucks post 114.6 points on 48% shooting, allowing 112.9 points on 45.4% shooting. Giannis Antetokounmpo leads the charge with 31.8 points and 12.2 rebounds, followed by Damian Lillard at 25 points and 4.7 rebounds. Bobby Portis chips in as the third double-digit scorer, while Brook Lopez hauls in 4.6 boards. Milwaukee hits 38.8% from three and 73.8% from the charity stripe, surrendering 35.7% from beyond the arc and grabbing 44.1 rebounds.
Why the Bucks Will Cover +7
Milwaukee benefits from a strong home-court presence at Fiserv Forum and can capitalize on Golden Stateâs inconsistent performances. Even without Antetokounmpo (calf), the Bucks rely on balanced scoring, solid three-point shooting, and defensive intensity to stay competitive. The Warriors have also stumbled as favorites against Central Division teams, and the Bucks boast a history of covering at home. Expect Milwaukee to ride its depth, share the ball effectively, and keep this matchup within single digits.
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Pelicans vs. Thunder Preview
Monday at Paycom Center, 8 p.m. EST
Our Pick: Thunder +17.5
The New Orleans Pelicans (12-39) visit the Oklahoma City Thunder (41-9) on Monday night, aiming to break a frustrating stretch on the road. New Orleans dropped consecutive matchups to the Kings and Nuggets, and faces a challenging schedule ahead with the Mavericks, Spurs, and Suns. Zion Williamson headlines the Pelicansâ offense with 24.3 points and 7.6 rebounds, while Trey Murphy III posts 22.6 points. New Orleans shoots 34.9% from deep, yet concedes 118.9 points, leading to a -8.7 net ratingâsecond-worst in the league.
Oklahoma City stands atop the Western Conference, coming off wins over the Grizzlies and Raptors. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander powers the Thunder at 32.7 points and 6 assists, supported by Jalen Williams (21.2 points, 5.5 rebounds). OKC averages 117.9 points and hits 35.6% from beyond the arc. Defensively, the Thunder allow only 104.8 points on 43% shooting, highlighted by a league-best 11.0 steals per game and limiting opponents to 33.1% from three.
Despite the Pelicansâ recent road woes (four road wins overall), thereâs a case for them to cover the +17.5 spread. Underdogs have covered in six of the Pelicansâ last eight contests at Paycom Center, and New Orleans has won three of its previous four games there following a road loss. With Brandon Boston questionable for OKC and the Thunder missing multiple players, the Pelicans can keep things closer than expected if Zion and Trey Murphy III find an early rhythm. While Oklahoma City boasts the NBAâs top cover rate, the sizable number offers enough room for a determined Pelicans squad to slip under that +17.5 margin.
Sacramento Kings vs. Dallas Mavericks
Kings vs. Mavericks Preview
Monday at American Airlines Center, 8:30 p.m. EST
Our Pick: Mavericks +1
The Dallas Mavericks (28-25) welcome the Sacramento Kings (26-26) for a pivotal Western Conference showdown. Dallas holds eighth place in the West with a 20-17 record against conference foes, averaging 115.5 points and outscoring opponents by 2.2 per game. Anthony Davis anchors the Mavericks with 25.7 points, 12 rebounds, and 2.2 blocks, while Kyrie Irving adds 21.4 points over his last 10 contests. Overall, Dallas shoots 48.4% in that span, though it concedes 120.0 points per outing.
Sacramento ranks ninth and stands at 17-17 in West matchups. Domantas Sabonis steers the Kingsâ offense, contributing 20.5 points, 14.3 rebounds, and 6.2 assists, complemented by DeMar DeRozanâs 21.2 points and 3.1 assists over his last 10. Sacramento scores 114.2 points in its most recent 10 contests, but has surrendered 121.9 while shooting 46.8%. The Kings also give up 115.4 points per game on the season, leaving little margin for error.
Dallas and Sacramento match up closely on offense, with both teams hovering around 115 points per contest. The Mavericks allow slightly more three-point attempts, but also limit makes effectively, giving up fewer than the 12.3 triples the Kings average. Injuries could play a role, as Dallas lists Anthony Davis (groin) and Dwight Powell (hip) as day to day. The Kings currently have no players on their injury report.
Why the Mavericks Will Cover +1
The home-court advantage, combined with Davisâs inside presence and Irvingâs scoring, should help Dallas keep pace and exploit the Kingsâ defensive lapses. If the Mavericks maintain their recent offensive efficiency and clamp down in crunch time, theyâll likely edge Sacramento and cover the slim one-point spread.
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Denver Nuggets
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Preview
Monday at Ball Arena, 9 p.m. EST
Our Pick: Nuggets -9.5
The Denver Nuggets (34-19) carry a six-game winning streak into Mondayâs clash with the Portland Trail Blazers (23-30). Denver sits third in the Western Conference and holds a 20-12 mark against conference foes. One of the Nuggetsâ strengths is ball movement, leading the West with 31.2 assists per game behind Nikola Jokicâs 10.3. Jamal Murray contributes 20.4 points and 6.1 assists, while Jokic averages 28.0 points over his last 10 contests. Denver also leads the league in efficient scoring, hitting 50.7% from the field.
Portland ranks 13th in the West and 4-6 within its division. The Blazers struggle to generate offense, averaging just 108.8 points on 45.0% shootingâlowest in the conference. Deandre Ayton provides solid production at 56.6% shooting, and Anfernee Simons adds a strong perimeter presence, knocking down 3.3 three-pointers over his last 10 games. However, Portland faces a daunting task against Denverâs high-powered offense, which has posted 121.6 points during the Nuggetsâ 7-3 stretch.
On the defensive side, Denver allows 115.7 points and has outscored opponents in that span by a narrow margin. Nevertheless, Portlandâs primary challenge is scoring efficiency on the road, and the Blazersâ 102.8 points allowed over their last 10 may not hold up against a loaded Nuggets lineup. Injuries could factor in, with Michael Porter Jr. (hamstring) listed as day to day for Denver and Robert Williams III (knee) day to day for Portland.
Why the Nuggets Will Cover -9.5
Denverâs robust ball movement, led by Jokic, can exploit Portlandâs lackluster offense and generate high-percentage shots. The Nuggetsâ home-court advantage and recent winning streak bolster their confidence. Expect Denver to establish a comfortable margin and maintain it throughout, covering the 9.5-point spread on Monday night.
Utah Jazz vs. Los Angeles Kings
Jazz vs. Lakers Preview
Monday at Crypto.com Arena, 10:30 p.m. EST
Our Pick: Jazz +12
The Los Angeles Lakers (31-19) return home following a 124-117 road win over Indiana in which Austin Reaves erupted for 45 points. Los Angeles stands fourth in the Western Conference with a 19-11 record versus conference foes and a 12-13 mark in games decided by 10 or more points. The Lakers average 12.1 made three-pointers per contestâ2.3 fewer than opponents typically convert against Utahâand shoot a robust 52.2% from the field over their last 10 outings. Reaves hits 44.8% of his shots for 19.1 points, while LeBron James adds 24.4 points in his last 10 games.
The Utah Jazz (12-38) continue searching for answers, carrying a 4-29 record in the West. Keyonte George paces the backcourt with 16.5 points and 5.8 assists, while John Collins contributes 11.8 points over his last 10. Utah averages 16.6 turnovers per game but benefits when it commits fewer errors than its opponents. The Jazz score 113.5 points on 45.8% shooting in their last nine contests, though theyâve allowed 122.9 in the same span. Injuries add to the challenge, with Lauri Markkanen (back) and Collin Sexton (ankle) sidelined.
Why the Jazz Will Cover +12
Utah may be undermanned, but it still boasts inside-out potential with Collins near the rim and George creating shots. The Lakers have dealt with injuries and occasionally let weaker teams hang around, as indicated by their nearly .500 record in double-digit games. If the Jazz limit turnovers, maintain decent shooting, and take advantage of any defensive lapses, they can keep the final margin under 12 points on Monday night.
