NBA Game Picks & Analysis
San Antonio Spurs vs. Orlando Magic
Spurs vs. Magic Preview
Saturday at Amway Center, 7 p.m. EST
Our Pick: Magic -3
The Orlando Magic (25-28), eighth in the Eastern Conference, host the San Antonio Spurs (22-27), who stand 12th in the Western Conference. Orlando has a 15-9 record on its home floor and excels at creating second chances, ranking fifth in the East with 11.3 offensive rebounds per game. Goga Bitadze leads the way in that category, pulling down 2.7 offensive boards. Meanwhile, the Magic shoot 43.8% from the fieldâslightly below the 46.3% that San Antonio typically allows.
The Spurs, sporting a 9-14 mark on the road, enter the matchup with an 11-18 record against winning teams. Victor Wembanyama remains the focal point, averaging 24.4 points, 10.9 rebounds, and an impressive 3.9 blocks. Rookie guard Stephon Castle adds 17.2 points and 3.6 assists over his last 10 contests. However, San Antonioâs defense has been a concern, giving up 123.5 points per game in that span.
Orlando has endured recent offensive struggles, going 2-8 in its last 10 outings while scoring just 102.0 points per game on 41.9% shooting. Franz Wagner stands out as a bright spot, posting 24.8 points, 5.4 rebounds, 5.1 assists, and 1.5 steals. Tristan da Silva also chips in 1.4 made three-pointers over his last 10 appearances, providing a perimeter lift.
Why the Magic Will Cover -3
Although Orlandoâs scoring has dipped, the Spursâ defense currently surrenders too many points, giving the Magic a clear pathway to success. If Wagner continues his strong offensive production and the Magic exploit second-chance opportunities off offensive rebounds, they should generate enough separation to win and cover the three-point spread at home.
Atlanta Hawks vs. Washington Wizards
Hawks vs. Wizards Preview
Saturday at Capital One Arena, 7 p.m. EST
Our Pick: Hawks -7
The Washington Wizards (9-42) host the Atlanta Hawks (24-28) on Saturday night, aiming to rebound after a 134-124 setback against Cleveland where Jordan Poole dropped 45 points. The Wizards stand at the bottom of the Eastern Conference, allowing a league-high 121.5 points per game on 47.6% shooting. Despite these defensive concerns, they have a 5-3 record against Southeast Division rivals. Bilal Coulibaly contributes 12.6 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 3.5 assists, while Poole averages 18.4 points over his last 10 contests.
Atlanta, sitting ninth in the East, is 4-2 against division foes and has a 10-15 record in games decided by double digits. Dyson Daniels provides 13.8 points and 5.4 rebounds per game, while Vit Krejci hits 2.3 three-pointers in his past 10 outings. The Hawks average 111.9 points over their last 10 but have allowed 118.8 in that same span. Still, Washingtonâs porous defense could present Atlanta with opportunities to break out offensively.
The Wizards make 12.8 threes per contest, which is slightly below the 14.4 long-range shots the Hawks yield. Meanwhile, Washingtonâs 116.1 points per game fall short of the 121.5 they concede, often leading to high-scoring affairs.
Why the Hawks Will Cover -7
Facing a Wizards team that gives up the most points in the NBA provides a prime chance for Atlanta to find a rhythm. If the Hawks limit turnovers and exploit Washingtonâs defensive lapses, they should be able to build a comfortable lead. Expect Atlantaâs balanced scoring and division familiarity to fuel a decisive victory that covers the seven-point spread.
Golden State Warriors vs. Chicago Bulls
Warriors vs. Bulls Preview
Saturday at United Center, 8 p.m. EST
Our Pick: Bulls +5.5
The Chicago Bulls (22-30) welcome the Golden State Warriors (25-25) to the United Center for a non-conference clash. Despite a 10-16 home record, Chicago stands third in the NBA in assists with 29.1 per game, fueled by Josh Giddeyâs 6.6. Meanwhile, Nikola Vucevic has been an offensive focal point lately, putting up 15.1 points over his last 10 contests.
On the other side, Golden State enters 11th in the West, carrying a 10-12 road record. The Warriors pride themselves on rebounding, ranking third in the conference at 46.1 boards per game, largely thanks to Kevon Looneyâs 7.0. Stephen Curry delivers 18.3 points over his last 10 outings, although he has also been dealing with injuries this season.
Chicago shoots 46.7% from the fieldâslightly above the 46.2% opponents typically shoot against Golden State. Despite scoring 111.5 points per game, the Bulls give up 120.1, indicating a need for a stronger defensive effort. Over the last 10 games, the Bulls stand at 4-6, averaging 112.8 while surrendering 117.9. Golden State has gone 5-5 in the same stretch, tallying 113.0 points but allowing 115.8.
Why the Bulls Will Cover +5.5
Facing a Warriors team thatâs been inconsistent on the road, Chicago can leverage its strong passing game and home-court advantage to keep this game close. If Giddey and Vucevic find a rhythm and the Bulls limit defensive lapses, they can stay within the 5.5-point spread. A focused effort at home could produce a tight finish, with Chicago covering the line.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Thunder vs. Grizzlies Preview
Saturday at FedExForum, 8 p.m. EST
Our Pick: Grizzlies +2
A battle of Western Conference heavyweights takes center stage as the Memphis Grizzlies (35-16) host the Oklahoma City Thunder (41-9). Memphis enters 19-12 in conference play, averaging 123.8 points while outscoring opponents by 8.4 per game. Jaren Jackson Jr. anchors the offense with 23.4 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 1.6 blocks, while Desmond Bane chips in 16.7 points over his last 10 games. The Grizzlies have been on a tear lately, posting a 9-1 record in their past 10 outings and putting up 126.8 points per contest.
On the other side, Oklahoma City rides a four-game winning streak and boasts a 23-8 mark against Western foes. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads the way with 32.7 points and 5.2 rebounds, complemented by Isaiah Joeâs 3.0 made three-pointers over his last 10. The Thunder connect on 13.7 threes each gameâjust shy of the Grizzliesâ 14.1. Over their last 10, Oklahoma City averages 122.0 points while holding opponents to 109.0.
Despite the Thunderâs success, Memphis thrives at home and has ramped up its scoring efficiency, shooting 50.4% from the field over the last 10 contests. That offensive rhythm, combined with a solid defensive approach, gives the Grizzlies a chance to contain Gilgeous-Alexander and maintain their own impressive pace.
Why the Grizzlies Will Cover +2
Memphisâs balanced attack, marked by Jacksonâs inside presence and Baneâs perimeter threat, can exploit the Thunderâs defense. Playing on their home floor, the Grizzlies should be able to continue their high-scoring surge and protect the rim effectively. Expect Memphis to capitalize on its momentum and cover the +2 spread in this marquee West showdown.
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves Preview
Saturday at Target Center, 8 p.m. EST
Our Pick: Timberwolves -6
The Minnesota Timberwolves (29-23) host the Portland Trail Blazers (23-29) on Saturday night, fresh off a 127-114 win over Houston in which Anthony Edwards erupted for 41 points. Minnesota holds a 4-3 record against division opponents and averages 111.7 points per game, outscoring teams by 3.5. Notably, the Timberwolves sink 15.1 three-pointers per contestâ2.1 more than the 13.0 Portland typically allows. Over their last 10 games, Minnesota has gone 7-3, putting up 118.4 points while limiting foes to 108.7.
Meanwhile, Portland stands at 4-5 within the Northwest Division and surrenders 113.9 points, facing a 4.9-point deficit on average. Anfernee Simons leads the offensive charge with 18.4 points and 5.0 assists, while Deni Avdija has been hot lately, posting 16.5 points over his last 10. Despite losing just once in their last 10 outings (9-1), the Blazers have faced some weaker competition, scoring 113.9 points and holding opponents to 102.1.
On the Timberwolvesâ side, Edwards continues to shine, tallying 27.2 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 4.5 assists. Naz Reid adds solid production off the bench, averaging 15.6 points in his past 10 appearances. Minnesotaâs defense has also stepped up, holding rivals under 109 points on average in that same span.
Why the Timberwolves Will Cover -6
Minnesotaâs combination of efficient offense and improving defense makes a strong case for covering the six-point spread. Edwards is playing at an elite level, and the Timberwolvesâ ability to hit extra three-pointers can widen the margin. With solid performances from role players like Reid, plus the home-court advantage, expect Minnesota to dictate the pace and secure a comfortable victory on Saturday night.
Boston Celtics vs. New York Knicks
Celtics vs. Knicks Preview
Saturday at Madison Square Garden, 8:30 p.m. EST
Our Pick: Knicks +3.5
The New York Knicks (34-17) host the Boston Celtics (36-16) in an Eastern Conference showdown Saturday night. The Knicks, sitting third in the East, have excelled against Atlantic Division foes, sporting a 9-1 record. They thrive in transition, ranking seventh in the conference with 15.9 fast-break points per contestâMikal Bridges paces that effort, contributing 3.5 of those points. Jalen Brunson continues his strong play, shooting 48.9% and scoring 26.1 per game.
Boston arrives second in the East, riding a four-game road winning streak. The Celtics average 117.3 pointsâoutscoring opponents by 8.5âthanks to the dynamic duo of Jaylen Brown (23.2 points, 6.1 rebounds, 4.8 assists) and Jayson Tatum (22.2 points over his last 10). Boston also fires away from deep, hitting 17.7 three-pointers per game, 4.2 more than the Knicks typically allow.
Over the Knicksâ last 10 contests, theyâve gone 8-2, putting up 120.7 points while limiting opponents to 113.9. Meanwhile, Boston is 7-3 in the same stretch, scoring 116.2 and holding opponents to 109.4. New Yorkâs high field-goal percentage (49.5%) exceeds the 45.3% Boston commonly permits.
Why the Knicks Will Cover +3.5
Despite Bostonâs potent offense, New Yorkâs exceptional recent formâespecially within the Atlantic Divisionâbodes well. Brunsonâs scoring efficiency and Bridgesâ fast-break prowess can keep the game tight, particularly at Madison Square Garden. With strong shooting and a top-tier transition attack, expect the Knicks to push the pace and stay within 3.5 points in this marquee matchup.
Denver Nuggets vs. Phoenix Suns
Nuggets vs. Suns Preview
Saturday at Footprint Center, 9 p.m. EST
Our Pick: Suns +5.5
The Phoenix Suns (26-25) host the Denver Nuggets (33-19) on Saturday night, looking to build on a thrilling 135-127 overtime victory over Utah where Devin Booker erupted for 47 points. Phoenix sits ninth in the Western Conference and owns a 17-14 record within the conference. The Suns allow 114.7 points, resulting in a slight negative average point differential (-1.3). However, their offense has clicked lately, shooting 47.5% from the fieldâ1.1 percentage points higher than the 46.4% Denver typically surrenders.
Denver, third in the West at 19-12 against conference opponents, relies heavily on the inside presence of Nikola Jokic, who secures 3.0 offensive boards per game. The Nuggets post 120.8 points, 6.1 more than the 114.7 Phoenix concedes. Jamal Murray adds 20.2 points and 4.0 rebounds, while Michael Porter Jr. averages 3.0 made threes over his last 10 contests. Over that same stretch, Denver has gone 7-3, racking up 123.8 points on a scorching 53.0% shooting.
Meanwhile, Phoenix holds a 5-5 mark in its last 10, generating 114.4 points and allowing 116.1. Booker continues to impress, averaging 28.7 points in the past 10 outings. Tyus Jones contributes an additional 11 points and 5.8 assists. Both teams deal with injuries: the Suns monitor Bradley Beal (toe) and Kevin Durant (ankle), while the Nuggets list Russell Westbrook (hamstring) as out.
Why the Suns Will Cover +5
With Bookerâs scoring surge and solid shooting from the rest of the roster, the Suns can exploit Denverâs defense at home. If Phoenix keeps Jokic off the offensive glass and forces the Nuggets to settle for contested shots, they should remain within five points and potentially pull off an upset in front of the home crowd.
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Sacramento Kings
Pelicans vs. Kings Preview
Saturday at Golden 1 Center, 10 p.m. EST
Our Pick: Kings -7
The Sacramento Kings (25-26) aim to secure a home victory against the visiting New Orleans Pelicans (12-39), who are seeking to end a five-game road losing streak. Sacramento sits 10th in the Western Conference and holds a 16-17 record against conference rivals. One of the Kingsâ key strengths is rebounding, as they rank eighth in the West with 44.5 boards per game. Domantas Sabonis anchors the glass, averaging 20.4 points, 14.3 rebounds, and 6.3 assists, while DeMar DeRozan has added 22.5 points over the last 10 contests.
Meanwhile, New Orleans languishes at the bottom of the conference (6-23 in West matchups) and has struggled mightily in close games, posting a 3-7 mark in one-possession contests. Dejounte Murray (17.5 points) has been a significant contributor, but heâs now sidelined for the season due to a leg injury. Trey Murphy III offers a perimeter threat, connecting on 3.6 three-pointers per outing over his last 10, yet the Pelicans surrender 118.8 points per gameâamong the highest in the league.
In their previous 10 outings, the Kings have gone 4-6, scoring 114.2 points on 46.9% shooting but giving up 120.1. The Pelicans fare only slightly better offensively with 118.4 points, but they concede 125.7, underscoring their defensive vulnerabilities.
Why the Kings Will Cover -7
Sacramentoâs formidable rebounding advantage, led by Sabonis, can dominate a Pelicans squad allowing excessive scoring. Combined with DeRozanâs steady production and a home-court boost, the Kings appear primed to exploit New Orleansâ defensive lapses and secure a win by more than seven points.
Utah Jazz vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Clippers vs. Jazz Preview
Saturday at Crypto.com Arena, 10:30 p.m. EST
Our Pick: Jazz +17.5
The Los Angeles Clippers (28-23) host the Utah Jazz (12-38) on Saturday night, aiming to protect home court and halt Utahâs seven-game road losing streak. Los Angeles stands seventh in the Western Conference, posting a 17-18 record in conference play. Led by James Hardenâs 21.3 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 8.4 assists, the Clippers score 50.2 points in the paint per gameâfifth in the Westâwith Ivica Zubac contributing a solid 13.2. Norman Powell also provides perimeter help, sinking 2.3 threes over his last 10 outings.
On the other side, Utah hopes to improve its 4-29 mark versus Western opponents. Walker Kessler leads the Jazz inside with 11.2 points, 11.9 rebounds, and 2.4 blocks, while rookie Keyonte George has stepped up recently, averaging 16.8 points and 6.3 assists over the last 10 games. Despite averaging 114.4 points in that stretch and pulling down 48.5 rebounds, the Jazz surrender 122.2 to opponents, underscoring defensive challenges.
Through their most recent 10 contests, the Clippers have gone 4-6, tallying 111.5 points and holding opponents to 112.6âslightly better defensively, but still inconsistent. Los Angeles shoots 47.0% from the field, just under the 47.5% that Utah generally allows. Meanwhile, the Jazz knock down 13.8 three-pointers per gameâ0.8 more than the Clippers usually permit.
Why the Jazz Will Cover +17.5
Although Utah struggles on the road, they remain formidable on the boards and capable of efficient offensive spurts behind Kesslerâs post play and Georgeâs scoring. Facing a large spread, the Jazz can keep the game closer by crashing the glass, hitting outside shots, and capitalizing on any Clippersâ lapses. That combination gives Utah a reasonable chance to cover the +17.5 line.
