NBA Game Picks & Analysis
Dallas Mavericks vs. Boston Celtics
Mavericks vs. Celtics Preview
Thursday at TD Garden, 7:30 p.m. EST
Our Pick: Celtics -12
The Boston Celtics (36-15) look to continue their winning ways when they host the Dallas Mavericks (26-25) on Thursday night. Boston has a strong 16-9 record at TD Garden, boasting 25.9 assists per game—eighth in the Eastern Conference—behind Jayson Tatum’s 5.7 assists. Tatum also averages 26.8 points on 45.2% shooting. Derrick White provides valuable depth, hitting 3.4 three-pointers over his last 10 outings.
Dallas, meanwhile, arrives aiming to end a three-game road skid. The Mavericks stand 11th in the West and allow only 113.4 points while holding opponents to 45.8% shooting—good for seventh in the conference defensively. Kyrie Irving leads Dallas with 24.5 points and 4.8 assists, while P.J. Washington contributes 16.4 points and 8.6 rebounds on 48.0% shooting over his last 10 appearances.
Offensively, the Celtics produce 117.2 points per contest, outscoring Dallas’s defensive average by nearly four points. Boston’s defense also holds opponents to 45.1% from the field, making it tougher for the Mavericks to capitalize on their 47.6% overall shooting. The Celtics are 7-3 in their last 10, averaging 115.7 points and allowing 108.6. Dallas has gone 4-6 in its previous 10, scoring 113.9 points but yielding 118.3.
Injury-wise, the Mavericks have multiple players day to day, including Caleb Martin and P.J. Washington Jr., while the Celtics currently list no injuries.
Why the Celtics Will Cover -12
Boston’s depth and home-court advantage should put Dallas at a disadvantage. With Tatum orchestrating the offense and the Celtics stifling opponents defensively, expect them to force turnovers and limit scoring opportunities. Anticipate a comfortable margin that covers the 12-point spread.
Houston Rockets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Rockets vs. Timberwolves Preview
Thursday at Target Center, 8 p.m. EST
Our Pick: Timberwolves -1
The Minnesota Timberwolves (28-23) welcome the Houston Rockets (32-18) to Target Center, fresh off a dominant 127-108 win over Chicago that featured Anthony Edwards erupting for 49 points. Minnesota boasts a 20-14 record within the Western Conference, scoring 111.4 points per game and maintaining a +3.4 average point differential. Shooting 46.3% from the field, the Timberwolves slightly surpass the 45.5% that Houston typically allows.
Houston, meanwhile, stands third in the West at 19-10 against conference rivals. The Rockets shine on the boards, leading the league with 47.9 rebounds per game, thanks largely to Alperen Sengun’s 10.6. Sengun also averages 19.2 points and 5.0 assists, providing a versatile interior presence. Jalen Green contributes 20.6 points and 3.7 assists over his last 10 outings, helping Houston score 113.4 points per contest—5.4 more than the Timberwolves allow opponents.
In their previous 10 games, Minnesota has gone 6-4, putting up 117.4 points while limiting teams to 109.7. Edwards remains the catalyst, averaging 26.9 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 4.5 assists this season. Naz Reid has stepped up lately, contributing 15.7 points over his last 10. Houston has split its last 10 matchups 5-5, scoring 111.1 points per night while giving up 111.0.
Why the Timberwolves Will Cover -1
With Edwards heating up and the Timberwolves executing well on both ends, Minnesota appears poised to outlast Houston in a high-energy affair. Although the Rockets excel at rebounding, the Wolves’ recent defensive surge—plus home-court advantage—gives them the edge to win and cover the slim one-point spread.
Orlando Magic vs. Denver Nuggets
Magic vs. Nuggets Preview
<e,>Thursday at Ball Arena, 9 p.m. EST
Our Pick: Nuggets -6.5
The Denver Nuggets (32-19) look to extend their four-game winning streak when they host the Orlando Magic (25-27). Denver has been dominant at home this season, posting a 16-8 record at Ball Arena. One key to the Nuggets’ success lies in their league-leading 59.5 points in the paint per game, fueled by two-time MVP Nikola Jokic. He averages 16.8 points in that area and has recently stepped up his overall scoring to 27.3 points over his last 10 outings. Fellow guard Jamal Murray contributes 20.2 points on 46.2% shooting, giving Denver a potent inside-out attack.
Across the court, Orlando stands at 10-18 on the road and surrenders just 105.5 points per game, although they’ve struggled offensively. The Magic score 1.4 points fewer than their opponents on average, indicating narrow margins in many of their contests. Goga Bitadze adds interior defense with 1.6 blocks, while Franz Wagner leads Orlando’s scoring efforts at 19.4 points over his previous 10 games. Despite that, the Magic have gone 2-8 during that span, putting up just 102.4 points per game and shooting 42.4% from the field.
Denver’s offensive output (121.0 points) stands a hefty 15.5 points higher than Orlando’s allowed average. The Nuggets also concede only 14.0 made three-pointers per contest, limiting the Magic’s perimeter production (11.1 makes). Injuries on both sides include Russell Westbrook (hamstring) out for Denver, and Moritz Wagner (knee) unavailable for Orlando.
Why the Nuggets Will Cover -6.5
With a high-powered offense and home-court advantage, Denver should outpace Orlando’s struggling attack. Jokic’s scoring versatility, combined with Murray’s backcourt presence, makes it difficult for the Magic to keep the game close. Expect the Nuggets to maintain a solid lead and cover the 6.5-point spread on Thursday night.
Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Warriors vs. Lakers Preview
Thursday at Crypto.com Arena, 10 p.m. EST
Our Pick: Lakers -6.5
The Los Angeles Lakers (29-19) look to extend their three-game winning streak when they host the Golden State Warriors (25-25) on Thursday night. Los Angeles has performed well against Pacific Division rivals, posting an 8-3 record in such matchups. Overall, the Lakers stand 13-13 against teams above .500 this season, showing they can compete with higher-level opponents. LeBron James headlines the Lakers with averages of 24.1 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 9.1 assists. In recent contests, Austin Reaves has stepped up, notching 20.1 points and 6.1 assists over his last 10 outings.
Golden State, on the other hand, is 1-9 within the division. Despite challenges, the Warriors excel on the offensive glass, ranking fourth in the NBA at 12.7 offensive rebounds per game—led by Kevon Looney’s 3.0. Stephen Curry remains a focal point of the offense, scoring 22.4 points and grabbing 4.4 rebounds per contest, while Moses Moody provides perimeter scoring (2.3 threes over his last 10 games). However, Golden State’s defense allows 111.8 points per contest, creating a narrow margin for error.
In their last 10 games, the Lakers have dominated opponents, going 8-2 and averaging 115.0 points while surrendering just 103.9. Conversely, the Warriors are 5-5 in the same span, giving up 115.8 points—over 12 more per game than the Lakers. Injury-wise, Luka Doncic (calf) remains out for Los Angeles, joined by Gabe Vincent (knee) and LeBron James (foot) as day-to-day. The Warriors list Moses Moody (back) as day to day, with Jonathan Kuminga (ankle) out.
Why the Lakers Will Cover -6.5
Los Angeles’s recent defensive surge and balanced scoring make them strong favorites at home. Even if James is limited, the Lakers’ depth and efficiency, combined with the Warriors’ defensive lapses, should create enough separation for a comfortable margin of victory. Expect the Lakers to maintain their momentum and cover the 6.5-point spread.
Sacramento Kings vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Kings vs. Trail Blazers Preview
Thursday at Moda Center, 10 p.m. EST
Our Pick: Kings -1
The Sacramento Kings (25-25) head to Portland hoping to snap the Trail Blazers’ five-game home winning streak. Sacramento ranks ninth in the Western Conference with a 16-16 record against conference foes, while Portland sits at 13th (22-29) and is 13-24 in matchups within the West.
The Kings excel on the glass, averaging 33.6 defensive rebounds per game—sixth in the conference—fueled by Domantas Sabonis’s 10.3 boards. Sacramento scores 116.3 points per night, outpacing the 114.1 points Portland allows. Zach LaVine contributes 23.7 points and 4.5 assists, but he’s listed as day to day (personal). Meanwhile, DeMar DeRozan adds 23.6 points and 3.8 rebounds on 50.6% shooting over his last 10 contests.
For the Trail Blazers, Deni Avdija averages 14.7 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 3.4 assists, while Anfernee Simons posts 17 points and 4.5 assists in his past 10 outings. Portland thrives at home, especially when it wins the turnover battle (14-7 in those games), but the Blazers shoot just 45.2% from the field, slightly below Sacramento’s 46.7% allowed. They do, however, bring momentum, going 9-1 in their last 10, scoring 114.4 points while giving up just 102.1.
Why the Kings Will Cover -1
Despite Portland’s recent success, Sacramento’s offense and strong rebounding give it an edge. The Kings consistently score above the Blazers’ defensive average, and Sabonis’s presence inside helps limit second-chance opportunities. Expect Sacramento to counter Portland’s home-court surge, capitalize on transition chances, and secure the victory by more than a single point.
Indiana Pacers vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Pacers vs. Clippers Preview
Thursday at Crypto.com Arena, 10:30 p.m. EST
Our Pick: Clippers -5
The Los Angeles Clippers (28-22) host the Indiana Pacers (28-21) in a non-conference matchup on Thursday night. The Clippers, who own a solid 17-9 home record, average 110.0 points and outscore opponents by 2.5 points per game. Led by James Harden’s 21.3 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 8.4 assists, Los Angeles relies on a balanced attack. Norman Powell has also stepped up recently, contributing 20.1 points over his last 10 outings.
Indiana enters the game with a 14-13 road record and sits fourth in the Eastern Conference. The Pacers excel against winning teams, going 12-8 in such matchups. Tyrese Haliburton orchestrates the offense, posting 17.9 points and 8.5 assists per contest. Meanwhile, Pascal Siakam adds 22.4 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 4.1 assists over his last 10. Together, they help the Pacers score 115.6 points per night—8.1 more than what the Clippers typically surrender.
Over their past 10 games, the Clippers stand at 5-5, putting up 111.9 points on 47.5% shooting and allowing 110.9. The Pacers are 7-3 during that span, scoring 116.3 points while holding opponents to 112.9. Injuries could play a role: the Clippers list Cam Christie (ankle) as day to day, while Indiana is without Isaiah Jackson and James Wiseman for the season.
Why the Clippers Will Cover -5
Los Angeles benefits from an efficient offense, anchored by Harden’s playmaking and Powell’s scoring. At home, the Clippers’ defense typically holds opponents below their scoring average. Expect them to dictate the pace, limit turnovers, and leverage their home-court advantage to secure a win by more than five points.
