NBA Game Picks & Analysis
San Antonio Spurs vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Spurs vs. Grizzlies Preview
Monday in Memphis, 8 p.m. EST
Our Pick: Grizzlies -4
The Memphis Grizzlies (33-16) welcome the San Antonio Spurs (21-25) with hopes of extending their five-game home winning streak. Memphis currently sits second in the Western Conference and remains a dominant force at FedExForum. Meanwhile, the Spurs stand 12th in the conference, looking to upset a Grizzlies team that has surged lately.
Memphis has excelled in Southwest Division matchups, posting a 7-4 record. Offensively, the Grizzlies average 123.4 points per game and outscore opponents by 7.7 points, thanks largely to Jaren Jackson Jr.âs 22.8 points on nearly 50 percent shooting. Luke Kennard, hitting 2.9 threes per game over his last 10 contests, also boosts the Grizzliesâ long-range attack. However, Ja Morant remains sidelined with a shoulder injury, and the team must adapt without him.
San Antonio has struggled against divisional opponents, going just 2-6. The Spurs concede 113.7 points per game and consistently find themselves behind, with Victor Wembanyamaâs availability uncertain (illness). He averages 24.6 points and 10.9 rebounds, while Devin Vassell contributes 3.1 made three-pointers in his last 10 outings. Still, the Spursâ defense has been inconsistent, allowing 121.7 points over their last 10 games.
Why the Grizzlies Will Cover -4
Memphis holds a decisive advantage at home, backed by a scorching 8-2 run in its last 10 games. Even without Morant, their balanced scoring and superior depth can overwhelm the Spurs, especially if Wembanyama is limited. Expect the Grizzlies to maintain control and comfortably cover the -4 spread.
Sacramento Kings vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Kings vs. Timberwolves Preview
Monday at Target Center, 8 p.m. EST
Our Pick: Timberwolves -5
The Minnesota Timberwolves (27-22) welcome the Sacramento Kings (24-24) for a critical Western Conference showdown on Monday night. Minnesota ranks seventh in the West, boasting a 20-13 record within the conference. Averaging 111.0 points, the Timberwolves outscore opponents by 3.1 points per game. Center Rudy Gobert contributes 10.4 points, 10.1 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks, while dynamic guard Anthony Edwards has been on a tear, posting 27.1 points over his last 10 outings.
Sacramento sits 10th in the West and leans on a high-octane offense, posting 116.5 points while shooting 47.4% from the field. DeâAaron Fox leads the charge with 25.1 points, 6.2 assists, and 1.5 steals. DeMar DeRozan has also given the Kings an offensive boost, averaging 23.3 points and 3.7 rebounds across his last 10 games. However, Sacramentoâs defense has been shaky, allowing 122.5 points per contest during that same stretch.
Over the past 10 games, Minnesota has a 6-4 record and scores 116.4 points while holding opponents to 108.8. The Kings are 5-5 in their last 10 and put up 118.4 points but surrender 122.5. Injuries could affect both teams, with Naz Reid, Anthony Edwards, and Julius Randle all day to day for the Timberwolves, and Doug McDermott questionable for the Kings.
Why the Timberwolves Will Cover -5
Minnesotaâs improved defense and home-court advantage give them the edge. Their balanced offenseâanchored by Gobertâs presence inside and Edwardsâ scoringâmatches up well against a Kings team that struggles to contain opponents. Expect the Timberwolves to set the tone early, force turnovers, and secure a comfortable win, covering the -5 spread.
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Bucks vs. Thunder Preview
Monday at Paycom Center
Our Pick: Thunder -17.5
The Oklahoma City Thunder look to extend their dominant run at home when they host the Milwaukee Bucks on Monday night. Oklahoma City boasts a 21-3 record at Paycom Center, fueled by a potent offense (123.2 ppg on 48.6% shooting) and a league-low turnover rate (11.3 per game). Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads the charge with 32.4 points per contest, while Jalen Williams has contributed 18.7 points over his last 10 games. The Thunder thrive on three-pointers, draining 13.7 per game, and they hold opponents to a mere 43.1% shooting.
Milwaukee, sitting fifth in the East, is 9-13 on the road. The Bucks average 114.6 points on 48.4% shooting, led by Giannis Antetokounmpo (32.8 ppg, 13.0 rpg) and Damian Lillard (25.3 ppg, 7.3 apg). Although they can light up the scoreboard, theyâve dropped recent contests and will be without Bobby Portis and potentially Damian Lillard (groin). With a 3-5 record in games decided by fewer than four points, the Bucks sometimes struggle to close out tightly contested matchups.
Why the Thunder Will Cover -17.5
Oklahoma Cityâs offense has been explosive, averaging 122.2 points over the last 10 games. Their stifling defense holds opponents to 108.7 points in the same span. At home, the Thunderâs energy and depth often overwhelm visiting teams. Meanwhile, Milwaukeeâs injuries and inconsistent road performances could hinder them against the Western Conferenceâs top squad.
With their balanced attack and strong home-court edge, expect the Thunder to ride their momentum and cover the -17.5 spread in convincing fashion.
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Denver Nuggets
Pelicans vs. Nuggets Preview
Monday at Ball Arena
Our Pick: Nuggets -10
The Denver Nuggets (30-19) host the New Orleans Pelicans (12-37) on Monday, looking to solidify their hold in the Western Conference. Denver leads the NBA in assists (31.1 per game), thanks largely to Nikola Jokicâs 10.1 average. Jokic also delivers 29.6 points and 12.8 rebounds, while Jamal Murray adds 22.5 points on 50.0% shooting over his last 10 contests.
New Orleans has struggled, going 6-21 in conference matchups. The Pelicans lost 118-116 to Boston despite Trey Murphy IIIâs 40-point effort. CJ McCollum posts 21.9 points and 3.8 assists, while Murphy averages 25.3 points and 6.1 rebounds over the last 10 games. Injuries remain an issue, with Brandon Ingram (ankle) out and Zion Williamson (illness) day to day.
The Nuggets shoot 50.5% from the field, which is 2.2 percentage points better than the 48.3% allowed by New Orleans. Over their last 10 games, Denver has poured in 121.1 points and dished out 30.7 assists, while the Pelicans have surrendered 122.1 points per contest in that span.
Why the Nuggets Will Cover -10
With Jokic orchestrating the offense, Denverâs efficient ball movement and overall depth wear down weaker defenses. The Pelicans, undermined by key injuries, must face a potent Nuggets attack on the road. Additionally, the altitude advantage in Denver often poses challenges to visiting squads. Expect Denver to set the tone early, control the glass, and maintain a lead throughout. Look for the Nuggets to claim a decisive victory and cover the double-digit spread.
Indiana Pacers vs. Utah Jazz
Pacers vs. Jazz Preview
Monday in Salt Lake City, 9 p.m. EST
Our Pick: Pacers -7
The Indiana Pacers (27-20) are riding a six-game road winning streak, looking to keep momentum when they face the Utah Jazz (11-36) on Monday night. Indiana stands fourth in the Eastern Conference, boasting a 13-12 road record. The Pacers excel on offense, with Tyrese Haliburtonâs 18.3 points and 8.6 assists powering an attack. Over the past 10 games, Pascal Siakam has stepped up, posting 23.7 points on 58.1% shooting.
The Jazz have struggled at home (4-17) and hold a 4-22 record versus teams above .500. Lauri Markkanen leads Utah with 19.6 points and 6.0 rebounds, while Collin Sexton contributes 17.3 points over his last 10 contests. Despite averaging 12.5 made three-pointers, the Jazz allow 14.4 per game, making perimeter defense a significant concern. They have also gone 2-8 in their last 10 outings, giving up 121.1 points a night.
Meanwhile, the Pacers average 119.9 points across their last 10 games, shooting 50.6% from the field. Their dynamic playmaking results in 30.8 assists, and theyâve limited opponents to 111.5 points during that span. With Indianaâs defense forcing opponents into lower shooting percentages, Utah will need a sharp effort to stay competitive.
Why the Pacers Will Cover -7
Riding hot offensive and defensive trends, the Pacers match up favorably against Utahâs porous defense. Indianaâs ability to score efficiently, combined with the Jazzâs poor record at home, should allow the Pacers to maintain a comfortable margin and cover the -7 spread.
Orlando Magic vs. Golden State Warriors
Magic vs. Warriors Preview
Monday at Chase Center, 10 p.m. EST
Our Pick: Warriors -3
The Golden State Warriors (24-24) look to regain their footing at home as they host the Orlando Magic (24-26), who arrive in San Francisco on a three-game losing skid. The Warriors have played solidly at Chase Center, posting a 14-13 record in front of their home crowd. Defense remains a focal point, with Draymond Green leading the team in defensive rebounds (5.0 per game) and helping Golden State rank seventh in the Western Conference in that category. On offense, Stephen Curry sets the tone, contributing 22.1 points and 6.2 assists. Andrew Wiggins has also stepped up, connecting on 2.6 three-pointers over the last 10 contests.
Orlando enters the matchup 9-17 on the road and 9-18 against teams above .500. Franz Wagner paces the Magic, averaging an impressive 24.7 points and 5.5 rebounds, while Tristan da Silva adds 1.3 made threes per game over his last 10. However, the Magicâs struggles have been glaring in recent outings: theyâre scoring just 99.2 points on 40.5% shooting over their past 10 games, leaving them vulnerable against stronger offenses. Their defense allows opponents 113.5 points per contest in that same stretch, further complicating their attempts to secure victories.
Why the Warriors Will Cover -3
Golden Stateâs home-court advantage and superior shooting efficiency should create enough separation to cover the spread. Even though the Warriors havenât shot the ball at a high percentage this season (44.5%), the Magicâs current offensive slump and difficulty against quality teams provide the Warriors with a favorable matchup. With Curry orchestrating the offense and Green anchoring the defense, expect Golden State to control the pace and lock down a victory by more than three points.
Phoenix Suns vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Suns vs. Trail Blazers Preview
Monday in Portland, 10 p.m. EST
Our Pick: Suns -5
The Phoenix Suns (25-23) head to Portland to face the Trail Blazers (20-29), who are riding a three-game home winning streak. Despite that recent success, Portland still sits 13th in the Western Conference and struggles offensively, posting just 108.8 points per gameâthe lowest mark in the West.
Portland, which is 12-24 against Western Conference foes, relies on emerging talents like Deni Avdija (14.8 points, 6.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists) and rookie Scoot Henderson (15.0 points in his last 10). Over their past 10 games, the Trail Blazers have played solid defense, giving up just 105.6 points on average. However, they remain inconsistent on offense and face a tough challenge against Phoenixâs disciplined defense (113.8 points allowed on 46.3% shooting).
The Suns, ninth in the West, are 16-12 in conference play. Their offense is powered by Kevin Durantâs 27.1 points and Devin Bookerâs 29.4 points on 49.0% shooting over the last 10 outings. Phoenix has averaged 115.3 points in its last 10 contests, while shooting nearly 49.1% from the field. With a full roster available, the Suns look to exploit the Blazersâ limited scoring capabilities.
Why the Suns Will Cover -5
Phoenixâs balanced attack, highlighted by Durant and Booker, should overwhelm Portlandâs shaky offense. The Trail Blazers remain vulnerable, particularly when facing efficient offenses that limit turnovers and force them to keep pace. Look for Phoenix to control the tempo and capitalize on its defensive edge, resulting in a comfortable victory and coverage of the -5 spread.
