NBA Game Picks & Analysis
Boston Celtics vs. Dallas Mavericks
Celtics vs. Mavericks Preview
Saturday at American Airlines Center
Our Pick: Celtics -8
The Boston Celtics look to rebound from a disappointing 117-96 loss to the Lakers on Thursday night. Despite Kristaps Porzingis scoring 22 points, Jaylen Brown netting 17, and Jayson Tatum chipping in 16, the Celtics shot just 38% from the field and dug themselves a deep halftime hole. While Boston has won eight of its last 13, it seeks a sharper performance against the Mavericks. The good news: the Celtics tend to bounce back, having won 18 of their last 19 games against Western Conference teams following a loss.
Meanwhile, the Dallas Mavericks snapped a tough spell by beating the Thunder 121-115 on Thursday. Spencer Dinwiddie fueled the offense with 28 points, Kyrie Irving added 24, and P.J. Washington posted a dominant 22-point, 19-rebound effort. Dallas shot 52% from the field and pulled away in the third quarter with a 23-8 run. However, the Mavericks still sit at just 2-5 over their last seven, and injuries continue to pose problemsâNaji Marshall and Dwight Powell remain out, while Klay Thompson is questionable.
Several trends favor Boston to cover the -8 spread. The Celtics are formidable after a loss, especially when facing a Western Conference opponent. Theyâve also covered eight straight times as road favorites following a defeat. Although Dallas can be scrappy at home, injuries and recent inconsistency suggest they could struggle against a disciplined Celtics squad. Expect Tatum and Brown to set the tone early, and for Porzingis to continue to be a force in the paint. Look for Boston to take control and cover the -8 spread.
Miami Heat vs. Brooklyn Nets
Heat vs. Nets Preview
Saturday at Barclays Center
Our Pick: Heat -7.5
The Miami Heat (having dropped five of their last six) visit a Brooklyn Nets squad thatâs lost 10 of its last 11, including a five-game slide. On Thursday, the Heat stumbled in Milwaukee, shooting just 37 percent from the field and 12 of 51 from deep. Kelâel Wareâs 22-point, 10-rebound double-double and Tyler Herroâs 21 points werenât enough as the Heat got swamped in the second quarter. Still, Miamiâs roster includes valuable pieces like Bam Adebayo, who pulled down 14 boards in that defeat.
On the other side, Brooklyn suffered a 108-84 home loss to Phoenix on Wednesday. Keon Johnson paced the Nets with 20 points, while Jalen Wilson added 15. Unfortunately, the team shot just 37 percent overall and 7 of 36 from beyond the arc, producing a lackluster 16-point fourth quarter. Injuries continue to hamper Brooklyn, with Ben Simmons and DâAngelo Russell listed as questionable, adding further uncertainty.
Key trends favor Miami to cover the -7.5 spread. Despite their recent slump, the Heat have dominated on the road as favorites when playing with a rest disadvantage. Conversely, the Nets have lost nine straight home games and have struggled to cover in night games at Barclays Center. Though both teams have struggled mightily, Brooklynâs injuries and inability to protect home court present Miami with a prime opportunity to get back on track.
Expect the Heat to feed off Herroâs shooting, Adebayoâs interior presence, and the urgency of needing a win. A strong defensive start and improved three-point accuracy should help them cruise to a solid victory and cover the -7.5 spread on the road.
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Charlotte Hornets
Pelicans vs. Hornets Preview
Saturday at Spectrum Center
Our Pick: Pelicans -2.5
The New Orleans Pelicans travel to Charlotte on Saturday night, determined to rebound from a tough 139-126 overtime loss to the Grizzlies. That setback snapped a four-game win streak, but theyâve still been solid overall, winning five of their last seven. Against Memphis, Dejounte Murray led the Pelicans with 26 points and seven assists, while CJ McCollum and Trey Murphy netted 22 points apiece. Coming off a high-scoring performance (54% shooting), New Orleans stumbled in the second half, giving up 77 points as defensive lapses allowed the Grizzlies to rally.
Meanwhile, Charlotte has been up-and-down lately, winning four of its last seven but losing consecutive games after a 102-97 defeat at home to Portland. Nick Smith Jr. scored 17 points and dished out six assists, Josh Okogie recorded a 16-point, 10-rebound double-double off the bench, and Mark Williams tallied 15 points, nine boards, and three blocks. The Hornets grabbed a comfortable early lead before stalling in the fourth quarter and surrendering an 8-0 run that proved decisive. Theyâll look to snap their skid before hosting the Lakers next.
Although the Pelicans face a historically tough situation on the second leg of back-to-backs, theyâve shown resilience, especially in night games against Charlotte. The Hornets have also struggled at home lately against teams on back-to-backs, dropping 11 of their last 12 in that scenario. Despite missing key players like Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson, New Orleans has enough firepower with Murray, McCollum, and Murphy to keep momentum on their side. Expect the Pelicansâ offense to maintain its efficiency, allowing them to cover the -2.5 spread in Charlotte.
Detroit Pistons vs. Orlando Magic
Pistons vs. Magic Preview
Saturday at the Kia Center
Our Pick: Magic -3
The Detroit Pistons (winners of 12 of their last 16) visit an Orlando Magic team desperate to snap a five-game slide. Detroit comes in hot after a solid 114-104 road victory over Atlanta on Wednesday. Cade Cunningham powered the Pistons with 29 points and 11 assists, while Malik Beasley fired in 19 off the bench. Detroit shot 50 percent overall and built a 22-point cushion by relentlessly attacking from the start.
Meanwhile, Orlando is enduring a rough patch, losing seven of its last eight. In a 101-79 defeat to Portland on Thursday, the Magic shot just 34 percent and suffered a dismal 18-point second quarter. Franz Wagner led Orlando with 20 points, and Tristan da Silva added 16 off the bench, but star rookie Paolo Banchero had a forgettable night, hitting just one of 14 from the field.
Despite these struggles, the Magic have a history of success at home. Theyâve won each of their last 12 games as home favorites against Eastern Conference foes following a loss. Moreover, Orlando has consistently covered the spread at Kia Center, especially against Central Division opponents. Although Detroit has been on a roll, the Pistons have also stumbled in this arena (failing to cover in four straight at the Kia Center).
Ultimately, Detroitâs strong form makes this interesting, but the Magicâs home-court advantage, historically solid coverage in these matchups, and improved outlook with key players returning suggest Orlando can bounce back. Expect the Magicâs urgency and defensive focus to help them cover the -3 spread on Saturday night.
Toronto Raptors vs. Atlanta Hawks
Raptors vs. Hawks Preview
Saturday Night at State Farm Arena
Our Pick: Hawks -4.5
The Toronto Raptors and Atlanta Hawks run it back at State Farm Arena after battling there just two nights ago. Toronto came out on top Thursday, sneaking past the Hawks 122-119, thanks largely to Scottie Barnesâs 25-point effort and a late 15-6 run. That victory extended the Raptorsâ strong run, giving them four wins in their last five outings. Despite relinquishing a 17-point lead, Toronto managed to rally behind balanced scoring from players like Bruce Brown (18 points off the bench) and Jakob Poeltl (17 points, nine boards).
Meanwhile, Atlanta is looking to snap a three-game skid. The Hawks clawed back from a 17-point deficit on Thursday, only to go cold down the stretch. Bogdan Bogdanovic poured in 23 points off the bench, and Dyson Daniels contributed 22 points, but it wasnât enough to complete the comeback. Atlanta shot 48% from the floor, including 13 of 37 from deep, but managed just six points in the final four-plus minutes. Now, with a second shot at Toronto, the Hawks are eager to avenge that loss and steer themselves back into the win column.
Even though the Raptors are on a roll, theyâre still missing players like Ochai Agbaji, Immanuel Quickley, and Kelly Olynyk. The Hawks, meanwhile, may be without Jalen Johnson and Zaccharie Risacher again, and Trae Young is listed as questionable. However, history favors Atlanta here: the Raptors have lost nine straight Saturday road games, and the Hawks have won six of their last seven night games following a home loss. Expect the Hawksâ strong finishing abilityâplus revenge on their mindsâto help them cover the -4.5 spread.
Houston Rockets vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Rockets vs. Cavaliers Preview
Saturday at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse
Our Pick: Cavaliers -4
The Houston Rockets visit the Cleveland Cavaliers in a rematch at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse on Saturday night. Houston comes in riding some momentum, having beaten the Cavs recently and owning road wins against good teams. The Rockets average 113.8 points on 44.8 percent shooting, powered by Jalen Green (21.5 ppg) and Alperen Sengun (19.2 ppg, 10.5 rpg). They also pull down 48.4 rebounds, helping them control the pace and create extra possessions.
However, Cleveland has more incentive to bounce back after dropping two straightâincluding an upset at the hands of these same Rockets. The Cavaliers remain a top-tier offense, scoring 121.7 points on 49.6 percent shooting. Donovan Mitchell (23.2 ppg) and Darius Garland (21.2 ppg) form one of the leagueâs most dynamic backcourts, and Cleveland ranks first in true shooting percentage (61.5%). Additionally, the Cavs thrive at home, particularly following a road loss: Theyâve won 12 straight home games in that scenario.
With key players such as Isaac Okoro and Evan Mobley absent, others like Jarrett Allen and Caris LeVert (if healthy) must step up. Still, Cleveland excels in second-half surges, leading the NBA in H2 win percentage (72.7%). That indicates strong adjustments and a determined finishing kickâcritical factors after two tough defeats.
Expect the Cavsâ defense (allowing just 111.6 points per game) to contain Houstonâs offense better than they did earlier this week. The home-court advantage, combined with Clevelandâs ability to bounce back in front of a lively crowd, should be enough to help them cover the -4 spread on Saturday night.
Sacramento Kings vs. New York Knicks
Kings vs. Knicks Preview
Saturday at Madison Square Garden
Our Pick: Knicks -4.5
The Sacramento Kings arrive in New York after splitting recent resultsâa victory over the Warriors and a loss to the Nuggetsâand prepare for matchups with the Nets, 76ers, and Thunder. They average 116.7 points per game while shooting 47.5 percent from the field, led by DeâAaron Foxâs 25.9 points and 5.2 rebounds. Domantas Sabonis (double-digit scoring, 44.8 rebounds as a team) adds reliable interior production, and Sacramento shoots 80.9 percent from the free-throw line.
The NY Knicks come off wins against the Hawks and Nets, scoring 117.1 points while shooting 49.5 percent. Jalen Brunson leads them with 26 points a night, while Karl-Anthony Towns adds 25.4 points. With a solid defensive mark of only 111.1 points allowed, the Knicks thrive on balanced scoring and timely defensive stops. Although they shoot 37.7 percent from downtown and 80.5 percent at the line, theyâve lost four of their last seven home games.
Despite Sacramentoâs strong play lately, the Knicks are historically dominant in this series at MSG, where favorites have prevailed in the last 10 meetings. The Kings have also struggled on the road with a rest disadvantage, failing to cover in four straight night games at the Garden. Meanwhile, New York has excelled in Q2, winning two-thirds of second quarters this season, a surge that often sets the tone. Karl-Anthony Towns and Brunsonâs offensive versatility makes them tough to contain.
Expect the Knicks to use their depth and reliable scoring to pull away, covering the -4.5 spread in a key home matchup.
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Chicago Bulls
76ers vs. Bulls Preview
Saturday at United Center
Our Pick: Bulls -4
The Philadelphia 76ers visit the Chicago Bulls in a Saturday night showdown at the United Center. Despite the Sixersâ upset victory over Cleveland on Friday, they face a steep challenge on the road. Philadelphia averages 107.5 points on 44.9 percent shooting but often struggles to keep up defensively, allowing 112.4 points per game and ranking near the bottom of the league in rebounds (38.9). Tyrese Maxey has been a bright spot, putting up 26.4 points, while Joel Embiid (24.4 ppg) remains a force when healthy. However, injuries and a lack of rest are big concerns; the 76ers are missing several key players like Embiid, and theyâre on the second leg of a back-to-back after a tough effort in Cleveland.
On the other side, Chicago averages 117.2 points on 47 percent shooting, led by Zach LaVineâs 23.6 points and Nikola Vucevicâs 20.6 points. The Bulls also benefit from Coby Whiteâs spark and Ayo Dosunmuâs hustleâthough both are on the injury report. While Chicago has struggled as a favorite lately, recent trends suggest an opportunity for a bounce-back. The 76ers have dropped 12 straight when playing as road underdogs with a rest disadvantage, and they typically falter on limited rest.
Additionally, the Bulls have covered each of their last six night games following a road loss. Facing a depleted Philadelphia roster, Chicagoâs home-court advantage and superior depth should allow them to dictate the pace. Despite recent misfires as favorites, expect the Bulls to be energized in front of their crowd and cover the -4 spread at the United Center.
Utah Jazz vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Jazz vs. Grizzlies Preview
Saturday at FedExForum
Our Pick: Grizzlies -11.5
The Utah Jazz head to Memphis on Saturday, fresh off losses to the Thunder and Pelicans. Utah (111.5 ppg on 45.6% shooting) leans on Lauri Markkanen (20.1 ppg) and Collin Sexton (18.3 ppg) for offensive firepower, but half their rotation is sidelined. Meanwhile, the Jazz are giving up 118.2 points per gameâan issue against any strong offense, let alone the Grizzlies.
Memphis (123.3 ppg on 48.4% shooting) once again shows explosive scoring, buoyed by Jaren Jackson Jr. (22.6 ppg) and, when healthy, Ja Morant (21.1 ppg). Even if Morant remains questionable with an illness, the Grizzlies consistently produce, especially at FedExForum. Theyâre 18-5 at home and boast the second-best cover percentage (30-15 ATS) in the league. That dominance extends to rest-disadvantage games, where Memphis has shown they can still win and cover despite quick turnarounds.
Utahâs defense suffers particularly at night against winning Western Conference teams, evidenced by a 13-game losing streak in such matchups. Theyâll also be without key contributors like John Collins and Jordan Clarkson, further straining their rotation. Conversely, the Grizzlies thrive on their home floor, where theyâve racked up 12 consecutive wins against opponents sporting losing records.
Yes, Memphis might be playing the second leg of a back-to-back, but theyâve proven all year that their depth and pace can maintainâno matter the rotations. Even if Morant gets additional rest, the Grizzlies have been stellar at covering, largely because of their high-scoring style and robust home record. Expect Memphis to seize control early, piling up points and ultimately covering the -11.5 spread.
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Golden State Warriors
Lakers vs. Warriors Preview
Saturday at Chase Center
Our Pick: Warriors -1
The Los Angeles Lakers look to continue their steady improvement as they visit the Golden State Warriors on Saturday night. L.A. is coming off wins against Washington and Boston, averaging 111.3 points on 47.4 percent shooting. Anthony Davis leads with 25.6 points and 11.8 rebounds, while LeBron James adds 23.8 points and 7.4 boards. Despite shooting a decent 35.3 percent from three, the Lakers can struggle late, ranking near the bottom in fourth-quarter performance.
Meanwhile, Golden State hopes to build momentum following a win over Chicago. Despite a recent defeat to Sacramento, the Warriors score 110.8 points on 44.6 percent shooting, allowing 111.2 points. Stephen Curry (22.9 ppg, 6.1 apg) remains a potent threat, and Andrew Wiggins (16.8 ppg) provides secondary scoring. The Warriors also dominate the boards with 46.4 rebounds per gameâgood for third in the league.
In this Pacific Division showdown, historical trends favor Golden State at home. The Warriors have covered nine of their last ten matchups at Chase Center when playing Western Conference opponents after a win. Meanwhile, the Lakers have failed to cover in each of their last four road games against the Warriors immediately following an upset victory. Although L.A.âs frontcourt is formidable, Golden Stateâs home-court advantage typically energizes Curry and company, especially in prime-time matchups.
Injuries will play a roleâDraymond Green, Jonathan Kuminga, and Kyle Anderson remain out for the Warriorsâbut LeBron James and Anthony Davis are merely probable. Ultimately, the Warriorsâ edge at home, combined with L.A.âs inconsistent closing efforts, gives Golden State the upper hand to cover the -1 spread on Saturday night.
Washington Wizards vs. Phoenix Suns
Wizards vs. Suns Preview
Saturday at Footprint Center
Our Pick: Suns -14.5
The Washington Wizards head into Phoenix on Saturday night, carrying a string of defeats that has them struggling at the bottom of the standings. Despite Jordan Pooleâs 21.6 points and Malcolm Brogdonâs solid play, Washington still surrenders 122.8 points a game, making it one of the leagueâs most porous defenses. Shooting just 44.1 percent from the field and giving up 47.6 percent to opponents, the Wizards rarely control the tempo. They also lack a strong paint presence, as they rank near the bottom in defensive rebounding, conceding 48.9 boards on average.
On the other side, the Suns come off a decent stretch, including a win over Brooklyn, and remain formidable at homeâparticularly as favorites. Phoenix is led by Kevin Durant (27.3 ppg) and Devin Booker (25.5 ppg), both of whom can pile on points in a hurry. Even though Bradley Beal remains only probable with an ankle concern, his presence alongside Durant and Booker adds to a lethal offense. The Suns shoot 47.5 percent from the field and hit nearly 38 percent from long range, a deadly combination for any defenseâespecially a vulnerable Wizards unit.
Several factors point to Phoenix covering the -14.5 spread. Washington has lost 19 consecutive road games against Western Conference teams, and the Suns have taken nine straight as home favorites against Southeast Division opponents. Moreover, the Wizards consistently fail to cover as road underdogs, particularly on the heels of a road loss. Expect Phoenixâs firepower to overwhelm Washington early, setting the stage for a lopsided victory that should secure the spread at Footprint Center.
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Bucks vs. Clippers Preview
Saturday at Intuit Dome
Our Pick: Clippers -3.5
The Milwaukee Bucks visit the L.A. Clippers on Saturday, carrying an eight-win surge in their last nine games. Milwaukee averages 114 points while shooting nearly 48.3 percent from the field, keyed by Giannis Antetokounmpo (31.5 ppg, 12 rpg) and Damian Lillard (25 ppg). Despite their dynamic offense, the Bucks have been somewhat shaky on the road, holding just an 8-10 record away from home.
On the flip side, the Clippers are fresh off beating the Wizards, and theyâve been competitive at home with a 16-8 mark. L.A. is powered by Norman Powellâs 23.7 points on 46.8 percent shooting and James Hardenâs all-around game (21.3 points, 5.8 rebounds). Kawhi Leonardâs return bolsters a defense allowing only 106.8 points per gameâone of the stingiest in the NBA. They also excel at defending the perimeter, ranking second in opponent three-point percentage (33.8%). Meanwhile, Milwaukeeâs success from downtown (39%) will be tested by the Clippersâ defensive pressure.
The Bucks may have momentumâwinning five straight and eight of their last nineâbut L.A.âs ability to lock down at home, combined with a robust 16-8 record in their new arena, bodes well for the Clippers. Milwaukeeâs road inconsistencies still loom large, especially given their 8-10 record away from Fiserv Forum. Additionally, the Clippers have covered in each of the last six games featuring home favorites against the Bucks.
Expect Los Angeles to harness home-court energy, deploy their strong defensive schemes, and outlast Milwaukee in a statement game. Look for the Clippers to cover the -3.5 spread at Intuit Dome.
