NBA Game Picks & Analysis
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Orlando Magic
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Orlando Magic
Thursday Night at the Kia Center
Our Pick: Magic -7
The Portland Trail Blazers (13-27) travel to face the Orlando Magic (23-20) on Thursday night. Portland hopes to build on two straight wins, including a 116-107 road victory over Miami. Anfernee Simons led that effort with 24 points, while Deandre Ayton posted 22 points and 15 boards. The Blazers shot 49% from the field and cruised after grabbing a big lead in the second and third quarters.
Meanwhile, the Magic aim to end a four-game slide. They suffered a tough 109-93 loss at Toronto on Tuesday, despite 26 points and 12 rebounds from Paolo Banchero. Orlando started hot with 37 first-quarter points but fizzled later, shooting just 41% overall. Injuries have slowed the Magic, but theyâre hoping to get some key pieces back soon.
One big factor favors Orlando: theyâve covered the spread in eight of their last nine games as home favorites following a road loss. Plus, the Magic have won 29 of their last 30 matchups at Kia Center against teams with losing records. The Trail Blazers, although on a mini-streak, remain just 8-12 in their last 20 games. They also struggle in night games after road wins and have lost six consecutive such outings.
Portland might keep things close if Anfernee Simons and other potential absentees can suit up effectively. However, Orlandoâs strong home record, Bancheroâs scoring punch, and the likelihood of some injured players returning suggest the Magic should bounce back. Look for Orlando to cover the -7 spread in a steady performance on their home floor.
Toronto Raptors vs. Atlanta Hawks
Raptors vs. Hawks Preview
Thursday at State Farm Arena
Our Pick: Hawks -5.5
The Toronto Raptors (winners of three of their last four) visit the Atlanta Hawks (victorious in four of their past six) on Thursday night. Toronto comes in hot after a 109-93 comeback victory over the Magic in which RJ Barrett led the way with 19 points. Scottie Barnes turned in an impressive near triple-double (17 points, 11 rebounds, eight assists), and Gradey Dick provided a spark off the bench with 17 points. After allowing 37 first-quarter points and falling behind by 21, Toronto flipped the script to secure one of its best performances of the season.
On the other side, Atlanta saw its three-game win streak snapped on Monday in a 119-110 defeat to the Knicks. Despite 27 points from Trae Young and 22 off the bench from DeâAndre Hunter, the Hawks collapsed after halftime, giving up 65 second-half points and failing to contain New Yorkâs Jalen Brunson (34 points).
Looking at recent trends, the Raptors have struggled on the road, particularly against winning teams, and theyâve lost 14 straight away from home to such opponents. Meanwhile, the Hawks have prevailed in six consecutive night games following a loss in their own building, and theyâve covered the spread in each of their last six games following a home defeat.
Even though Toronto has been reinvigorated lately, Atlantaâs home-court advantage and strong bounce-back record make them the better pick. Expect the Hawks to tighten up defensively and ride Trae Youngâs playmaking to cover the -5.5 spreadâespecially given their knack for rebounding after a loss at State Farm Arena.
Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Heat vs. Bucks Preview
Thursday at Fiserv Forum
Our Pick: Bucks -6.5
The Miami Heat (losers of four of their last five) head to Milwaukee to face a red-hot Bucks squad (winners of seven of their last eight). Miami hopes to bounce back after a 116-107 loss to Portland on Tuesday in which Duncan Robinson led with 22 points, Kelâel Ware posted a 20-point, 15-rebound double-double, and Jimmy Butler added 13 points and eight assists. The Heat shot just 44% from the field and gave up a massive 63-39 run in the second and third quartersâan indicator theyâll need a more complete effort this time around.
Meanwhile, the Bucks have been rolling. Their last outing was a comfortable 123-109 home victory over the 76ers on Sunday, powered by Giannis Antetokounmpo (34 points, 15 rebounds) and Damian Lillard (25 points). Milwaukee shot 49% and hit 14 triples. After holding Philadelphia to just 21 first-quarter points, the Bucks closed strong, maintaining control on both ends.
Several trends favor Milwaukee to cover the -6.5 spread. Theyâve won seven straight at home following a home win, and they enter this matchup well-rested. The Heat, by contrast, looked flat in Tuesdayâs defeat and havenât found consistency lately. Although Miami has historically played well against Central Division teams after losing as favorites, their recent form and the Bucksâ dominance at Fiserv Forum make a compelling case for Milwaukee. With Giannis and Dame clickingâand the Bucks not having played since Sundayâlook for the Bucks to take command early and cover the -6.5 spread at home.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Mavericks vs. Thunder: Preview and Pick
Thursday at Paycom Center
Our Pick: Thunder -12
The Dallas Mavericks (losers of 10 of their last 13) visit the Oklahoma City Thunder (winners of 16 of their last 18) on Thursday night. Dallas aims to regroup after a heartbreaking 115-114 setback to Minnesota on Wednesday, where they trailed by double digits in the fourth quarter and failed to complete their late comeback. Kyrie Irving finished with 36 points and 9 assists, while PJ Washington added 30 points. However, the Mavs shot just 8 of 29 from beyond the arc, and Spencer Dinwiddie (9 points) plus Quentin Grimes (5 points) struggled offensively.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma City comes off a 123-114 home victory over the Jazz. The Thunder relied on a massive 54-point night from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, alongside a strong 25 points from Jalen Williams. Oklahoma City shot only 46 percent from the field, but their key 11-0 fourth-quarter run sealed the deal against Utah.
A big factor in this matchup is Dallasâs depleted roster. With key players missing, the Mavs have struggled on the second leg of back-to-backsâparticularly against Western Conference foes on the road. By contrast, the Thunder boast an 11-game home winning streak in night matchups and have consistently covered spreads against winning teams at home.
Expect Gilgeous-Alexander and company to seize control early, leveraging their depth and momentum to pull away. Despite Dallasâs underdog success in select scenarios, the Mavs simply have too many injuries to overcome. Look for Oklahoma Cityâs high-powered offense and solid defense to secure a comfortable margin. Take the Thunder to cover the -12 spread at Paycom Center.
Sacramento Kings vs. Denver Nuggets
Kings vs. Nuggets Preview
Thursday at Ball Arena
Our Pick: Nuggets -7.5
The Sacramento Kings face the Denver Nuggets on Thursday in a matchup between two high-powered offenses. Sacramento comes off wins against the Warriors and Wizards, putting up 116.7 points per game. DeâAaron Fox (25.9 ppg, 5.2 rpg) and Domantas Sabonis (double-digit scoring, solid rebounding) fuel an attack shooting 47.5 percent from the field. The Kings are also hitting 80.9 percent of their free throws, which helps seal games late.
However, Denver is one of the toughest places to playâespecially if youâre on the second leg of a back-to-back. The Nuggets feature an explosive offense at 120.1 points, with Nikola Jokic (30.1 ppg, 13.2 rpg) anchoring the inside while Jamal Murray (20.1 ppg) provides scoring from the perimeter. Denverâs 50.1 percent field goal shooting is tops in the league, and theyâre also an efficient 38.3 percent from downtown.
Several trends favor the Nuggets to cover the -7.5 spread. Theyâve dominated recent meetings with Sacramento at Ball Arena, winning 13 straight there after a win. The Kings, though impressive lately, tend to struggle on the road against quality Northwest Division teamsâand playing in the altitude after a quick turnaround only adds to their challenge. Additionally, the Nuggets are 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games, often pulling away in the final quarter.
Sacramento has been hot, but Denverâs rest advantage, altitude factor, and overall efficiency tilt the matchup in favor of the home team. Expect the Nuggets to separate late and cover the -7.5 spread.
Chicago Bulls vs. Golden State Warriors
Bulls vs. Warriors Preview
Thursday at Chase Center
Our Pick: Warriors -1.5
The Chicago Bulls (18-25) head to San Francisco to face the Golden State Warriors (21-21) on Thursday night. Chicago recently lost to the Trail Blazers, then defeated the Clippers, and now squares off against the Warriors before meeting the 76ers, Nuggets, and Celtics. The Bulls average a solid 117.2 points on 47 percent shooting, with Zach LaVine leading at 23.6 points per game and Nikola Vucevic adding 20.6 points and 3.3 assists. They also shoot 37.2 percent from deep and 79.8 percent at the line.
Meanwhile, the Warriors have struggled lately, falling to the Celtics and Kings before upcoming matchups with the Lakers, Jazz, and Thunder. Stephen Curry leads the way at 22.9 points and 6.1 assists, while Andrew Wiggins averages 16.8 points. Despite the dip in form, Golden State still grabs 46.4 rebounds per game, good for third in the league.
Historically, the Warriors have dominated the Bulls at home after a road loss, and theyâve covered the spread in eight of their last nine home meetings against Chicago. While the Bulls have pulled off some upsets on the road, theyâve lost eight of their past nine in that spot when coming off a win as underdogs. Add in the Bullsâ recent struggles against the West, and thereâs reason to believe Golden State can bounce back here.
Even with injuries to frontcourt players, the Warriors still have Curry, who remains a game-changer. Given Chicagoâs inconsistency and Golden Stateâs strong record against this opponent in Chase Center, take the Warriors to cover the -1.5 spread.
Boston Celtics vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Celtics vs. Lakers Preview
Thursday at Crypto.com Arena
Our Pick: Celtics -6.5
The Boston Celtics (winners over the Warriors and Clippers) travel to Los Angeles for a clash with the Lakers, who recently beat the Wizards but fell to the Clippers. Boston averages 117.7 points on 45.9% shooting, anchored by Jayson Tatumâs 27.5 points and 9.3 rebounds. Jaylen Brown adds 23.1 points, while Kristaps Porzingis (double-figure scoring) and Derrick White (4.4 rebounds) provide a balanced attack. The Celtics allow only 108.1 points, holding opponents to 45.1% shooting.
Meanwhile, Los Angeles posts 111.3 points on 47.4% shooting but surrenders 113.9 points on 48% from the field. Anthony Davis leads with 25.6 points and 11.8 rebounds, while LeBron James contributes 23.8 points and 7.4 boards. Despite these stars, the Lakers shoot just 35.3% from deep and grab only 40.8 rebounds per gameâa concern against Bostonâs strong rebounding and three-point attack.
Recent trends suggest the Lakers perform well as underdogs, especially in marquee matchups. Yet Boston excels as a road favorite (winning 11 consecutive games when playing with a rest disadvantage) and has covered the spread in their last four road games on the second leg of a back-to-back vs. Western Conference foes. The Celtics also rank first in the league for three-point attempts, challenging the Lakersâ defense, which allows 36.6% shooting from distance.
While L.A. benefits from rest and possible big nights from LeBron and AD, Bostonâs depth and efficiency tip the scales. Expect the Celticsâ high-powered offense, stout defense, and proven success on the road to help them cover the -6.5 spread at Crypto.com Arena.
Washington Wizards vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Wizards vs. Clippers Preview
Thursday at Intuit Dome
Our Pick: Clippers -14.5
The Washington Wizards (6-35 on the season) visit the Los Angeles Clippers (24-17) on Thursday, hoping to snap a tough stretch of losses and defensive woes. Washington, averaging 108.6 points on 44.1% shooting, has struggled mightily, allowing 122.8 points per game on 47.6% from the field. Jordan Poole leads the way with 21.6 points, while Kyle Kuzma adds 14.4 points and 2.5 assists. Despite these contributions, the Wizards rank near the bottom in defensive rating and overall rebounding, which complicates any hopes for an upset.
Meanwhile, the Clippers come off losses to the Bulls and Celtics, looking to rebound at home. Averaging 109.5 points and holding opponents to just 106.8 points on 45.4% shooting, Los Angeles exhibits the second-best defensive rating in the league (108.3). Norman Powell (23.7 ppg) and James Harden (21.3 ppg, 5.8 rpg) give the Clippers a versatile scoring tandem. While Ivica Zubac, Kawhi Leonard, and P.J. Tucker remain out, thereâs optimism some key players could return for this matchup. Historically, the Clippers dominate the Wizards at home, winning each of their last 13 home games following a loss, and theyâve also covered as big favorites in these spots.
Washingtonâs recent form is abysmal: theyâve failed to cover the spread in matchups against winning teams, and their defensive lapses make blowouts all too common. Even if the Clippers are on the second leg of a back-to-back, the gap in talent and defensive prowess should be evident. Look for Los Angeles to regroup, lean on Powell and Hardenâs scoring, and hand the Wizards another lopsided defeatâcovering the -14.5 spread at Intuit Dome.
