NBA Game Picks & Analysis
Orlando Magic vs. Boston Celtics
Magic (23-19) at Celtics (28-12)
Friday, 7 p.m. ET
Our Pick: Magic +14.5
Orlando visits Boston in an Eastern Conference showdown. Despite the Celtics’ 22-8 conference record, the Magic excel in grabbing offensive boards (10.9 per game, sixth in the East) behind Goga Bitadze. Coupled with a solid defense allowing opponents to shoot just 46.7%, Orlando can keep this closer than many expect.
Look for Franz Wagner (24.4 ppg, 5.7 apg) and the Magic’s rebounding edge to help cover the +14.5 spread on the road.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. New York Knicks
Timberwolves (21-19) at Knicks (27-15)
Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Our Pick: Knicks -4.5
New York, fresh off a thrilling 125-119 OT win over Philly, returns home with a 13-7 record at Madison Square Garden. The Knicks boast a potent offense (117.4 ppg on 49.6% shooting) fueled by Karl-Anthony Towns (25.4 ppg, 13.9 rpg), while Minnesota (11-10 away) faces a tough defensive challenge on the road.
Even though Anthony Edwards (25.9 ppg) leads a scrappy Timberwolves squad, the Knicks’ balanced scoring and home-court advantage give them the edge to cover the -4.5 spread.
Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat
Nuggets (24-16) at Heat (20-19)
Friday, 8 p.m. ET
Our Pick: Nuggets -2
Denver looks to extend its four-game road win streak, propelled by a potent offense shooting 50.0%—well above the 46.0% Miami typically allows. Meanwhile, the Heat (10-7 at home) thrive on fast breaks (15.1 ppg) led by Tyler Herro’s 24.3 points, but they face a Nuggets defense surrendering only 46.4% FG.
With Russell Westbrook (13.2 ppg, 5.1 rpg) and strong late-game execution (6-4 in one-possession games), Denver’s well-rounded attack gives them an edge to cover the -2 spread on the road.
Toronto Raptors vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Raptors (10-31) at Bucks (22-17)
Friday, 8 p.m. ET
Our Pick: Raptors +11.5
Milwaukee (winners of three straight at home) leans on Giannis Antetokounmpo’s dynamic play (31.3 ppg, 11.8 rpg). However, Toronto—averaging 28.8 assists behind RJ Barrett’s 5.9—can exploit a Bucks defense allowing 13.9 threes per game. With their ball movement and potential to keep pace offensively, the Raptors have a solid chance to cover the +11.5 spread.
Utah Jazz vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Jazz (10-29) at Pelicans (10-32)
Friday, 8 p.m. ET
Our Pick: Jazz +11
New Orleans relies on Yves Missi’s rebounding (9.1 ppg, 8.2 rpg) but has struggled in games decided by double digits (3-20). Meanwhile, Utah—though facing a tough Western Conference run—can look to Lauri Markkanen (20.1 ppg) and Collin Sexton for scoring. The Jazz’s ability to trade threes (14.0 per game) could keep them within the +11 spread against a Pelicans squad that’s only 4-19 vs. the West.
Charlotte Hornets vs. Chicago Bulls
Hornets (9-28) at Bulls (18-23)
Friday, 8 p.m. ET
Our Pick: Bulls -4.5
Chicago aims to end a three-game home skid, relying on Nikola Vucevic’s interior presence (20.1 ppg, 10.4 rpg) to spark an offense scoring 117.5 points per contest—5.1 more than Charlotte’s defense typically allows. The Hornets (6-24 in conference games) struggle to generate fast-break points (league-low 12.8).
Even with LaMelo Ball’s impressive numbers (29.6 ppg, 7.5 apg), Chicago’s balanced scoring and efficiency at home should help the Bulls cover the -4.5 spread.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks
Thunder (34-6) at Mavericks (22-19)
Friday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Our Pick: Thunder -7.5
Oklahoma City (19-5 vs. the West) visits Dallas after Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s 40-point outing lifted the Thunder to a 134-114 win over Cleveland. OKC thrives on efficiency, committing just 11.4 turnovers per game (29-6 when fewer than opponents) and shooting 50.4% from the field in its last 10.
Despite Dallas’s decent scoring (115.6 ppg) and Kyrie Irving’s playmaking, the Mavs are just 2-8 over the last 10. Expect the Thunder’s high-octane offense and disciplined ball-handling to help them cover the -7.7 spread on the road.
Memphis Grizzlies vs. San Antonio Spurs
Grizzlies (26-15) at Spurs (19-20)
Friday, 9:30 p.m. ET
Our Pick: Spurs +2
San Antonio, led by Victor Wembanyama’s two-way brilliance (24.7 ppg, 10.7 rpg, 4.0 bpg), averages 28.5 assists per game—seventh in the league thanks to Chris Paul’s 8.3. Memphis may dominate the boards (48.1 rpg) with Santi Aldama, but the Spurs’ balanced offense (13.7 threes per game) can keep the score tight.
Look for Wembanyama and San Antonio’s unselfish play to capitalize on home-court energy, making the Spurs a strong bet to cover the +2 spread.
Brooklyn Nets vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Nets (14-26) at Lakers (21-17)
Friday, 10:30 p.m. ET
Our Pick: Lakers -11
Los Angeles (13-6 at home) faces a Brooklyn team that’s just 9-14 on the road and 4-17 in double-digit decisions. Anthony Davis (25.8 ppg, 11.9 rpg) leads a Lakers offense shooting 48.6% over the last 10 games. Meanwhile, the Nets struggle to limit opponents (116.7 points allowed in that span).
Even without key contributors, L.A.’s consistent scoring and home-court prowess make them a strong bet to cover the -11 spread against a Brooklyn squad that often loses by double digits.
