NBA Game Picks & Analysis
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Dallas Mavericks
Analysis: Why the New Orleans Pelicans Are Likely to Cover the +10.5 Point Spread
The New Orleans Pelicans have been playing with a lot of grit and determination despite facing significant injury challenges, and this is reflected in their performances recently. Given their injury report, which includes key players like CJ McCollum, Zion Williamson, and Herb Jones, the Pelicans have still managed to stay competitive and push teams like the Los Angeles Lakers to the brink, losing by just 5 points. Their victory over the Denver Nuggets, even though Denver was missing Nikola Jokic, further demonstrates their resilience and ability to compete even when shorthanded. Now, facing the Dallas Mavericks, the Pelicans are listed as +10.5 point underdogs, but there’s plenty of reason to believe that New Orleans can cover this spread.
- Injury Issues for Dallas: Luka DonÄiÄ is questionable due to a knee injury. The Mavericks were 4-8 without him last season.
- Pelicans’ Resilience: Despite missing key players (Zion, CJ McCollum, Herb Jones), the Pelicans have been competitive, including pushing the Lakers to a 5-point loss and beating Denver.
- Close Games: New Orleans has lost 4 consecutive games by just one possession, showing they can stay in tight contests.
- Pelicansâ Defense: New Orleans is allowing opponents to shoot 48.2% but has shown defensive effort, especially from beyond the arc (37.3% allowed).
- Rebounding: The Pelicans average 43.9 rebounds per game, giving them an edge in limiting Dallas’ second-chance opportunities.
- Dallasâ Inconsistency: The Mavericks have struggled to cover large spreads and have been hit-or-miss all season, making them unreliable as double-digit favorites.
- Pace Control: The Pelicans can slow the game down, limiting Dallasâ fast-break opportunities and keeping the score close.
- Algorithm Support: The data suggests New Orleans has a strong chance to cover the +10.5 spread due to Dallasâ injury concerns and inconsistency.
Conclusion:
With the Pelicans showing resilience in their recent performances, combined with the Mavericksâ inconsistency and injury issues, New Orleans is well-positioned to cover the +10.5 point spread. Despite being shorthanded, the Pelicans have proven they can compete against high-caliber teams and stay close in games. The algorithmâs data points towards a tightly contested game, where the Pelicans’ defensive effort, ability to control tempo, and Dallas’ lack of consistency make them a strong bet to cover the spread. Whether Luka plays or not, the Pelicansâ depth and heart should allow them to stay within 10.5 points of the Mavericks.
Denver Nuggets vs. Memphis Grizzlies
The Denver Nuggets have encountered a rough patch in their recent games, losing two in a row, including a tough 105-90 defeat to the Memphis Grizzlies. The absence of their superstar Nikola Jokic has undoubtedly been a factor in these struggles, as the reigning three-time MVP has been absent for the past two games due to personal reasons. However, there’s a strong case to be made for the Nuggets to cover the +3.5 spread against the Grizzlies tonight, particularly if Jokic is able to return to the lineup.
Reasons Denver Nuggets can cover +3.5 vs. Memphis Grizzlies:
- Nikola Jokicâs Return: Jokic is listed as questionable but, if he plays, his triple-double capability (29.7 PPG, 13.7 RPG, 11.7 APG) makes Denver much more dangerous.
- Memphisâ Soft Schedule: Memphis has a 8-6 record, but theyâve faced weaker opponents (23rd in opponent strength), inflating their performance.
- Nuggetsâ Motivation: Denver is coming off a blowout loss and will be highly motivated to bounce back, especially in a revenge spot against the same team.
- Improved Intensity: Coach Mike Malone stressed the need for more physicality and urgency after last game. The Nuggets should start strong this time.
- Mismatch in Offensive Power: With Jokic on the floor, Denver has a more potent offense than Memphis, who relies heavily on Ja Morant but lacks overall firepower.
Given the combination of factorsâJokic’s potential return, the Nuggets’ motivation to bounce back, the mismatch in offensive firepower, and the revenge factorâDenver covering the +3.5 spread looks like a solid bet. If Jokic is back on the floor, this line could quickly shift in Denver’s favor, and the Nuggets will have the tools to keep this game close or even pull off an outright win.
Furthermore, if the Nuggets can correct their slow starts and execute with better intensity, they have more than enough talent to keep the game within a competitive margin. With Memphisâ inflated record and the Nuggets’ ability to adjust and bounce back, betting on Denver to cover the +3.5 spread seems like a great opportunity in this matchup.
