NBA Game Picks & Analysis

Chicago Bulls vs. New York Knicks

Based on our algorithm’s analysis, there’s a compelling case for the Chicago Bulls to cover the +8.5 spread in their upcoming matchup against the New York Knicks. Despite struggling in recent games, the Bulls have proven they can hang with top-tier teams. In their last outing, they pushed the undefeated Cleveland Cavaliers to the limit, leading for much of the game before a late 9-0 run by Cleveland allowed them to pull away. Chicago’s offensive efficiency was on display, shooting 49% from the field and 37% from three, with Nikola Vucevic leading the charge with 20 points. The Bulls have shown they can compete, and with key players like Vucevic and Zach LaVine contributing offensively, this matchup offers them a strong opportunity to stay within the spread, even on the road.

Bulls’ Offensive Efficiency: Despite their recent struggles, the Bulls have shown they can be competitive, particularly against strong opponents. In their last game, they pushed the undefeated Cleveland Cavaliers to the brink, leading for much of the contest before ultimately falling short in a 119-113 loss. Chicago shot 49% from the field and a respectable 37% from beyond the arc, with Nikola Vucevic leading the way with 20 points. This offensive efficiency, especially with Vucevic’s shooting touch, has been a consistent theme for the Bulls. With Vucevic averaging 20.8 points per game and shooting 47.5% from three-point range this season, he’s providing crucial spacing for Chicago’s offense. This ability to space the floor should allow the Bulls to keep pace with the Knicks’ defense, especially when you consider that the Knicks have been allowing an above-average 13.7 three-pointers per game to opponents, well above the league average.
Vucevic’s Shooting as a Key Factor: One of the most promising aspects of this game for the Bulls is Vucevic’s ability to knock down threes at a high rate. Over his last 10 games, he has hit 2+ threes in 7 of those contests, and has even exceeded that mark in some games, with multiple 4-three performances. Our algorithm sees Vucevic’s shooting as a major factor in this game, especially given the Knicks’ struggles to defend the three-point line. Although New York has a strong overall defense, their vulnerability to the three-point shot could play right into Vucevic’s hands, allowing the Bulls to keep the game closer than expected.
Knicks’ Defensive Metrics: While the Knicks are a solid defensive team overall, they have shown some weaknesses when it comes to defending the perimeter. Allowing 13.7 made threes per game puts them among the bottom tier of the league in that category. This bodes well for Chicago’s offense, as they rank 9th in the league for three-pointers made per game (13.4). With Vucevic stretching the floor and the likes of LaVine, White, and others contributing from deep, the Bulls should be able to exploit this defensive gap and stay within striking distance of the Knicks throughout the game.
Recent Close Results: The Bulls have been competitive despite their recent poor record, losing five of their last six games, but many of those defeats have been close. They have demonstrated the ability to stay within the spread even against strong competition, such as their near-upset of the undefeated Cavaliers. This resilience, coupled with Vucevic’s perimeter shooting, will help them cover the +8.5 spread in this matchup against New York.
Knicks’ Injury Report: With the Knicks still missing key contributors like Mitchell Robinson and Precious Achiuwa, their interior defense could be slightly compromised. The absence of Robinson in particular weakens their rim protection, which could allow Vucevic and others to attack the basket with more success. This further increases Chicago’s chances of keeping the game closer than expected.

Conclusion:

Our algorithm predicts that the Chicago Bulls will cover the +8.5 spread in this matchup against the Knicks. Chicago’s offensive efficiency, particularly from beyond the arc with Vucevic, along with New York’s defensive vulnerabilities, should keep the game competitive. Despite the Knicks being favored, Chicago’s ability to shoot the three and their competitive spirit should be enough to keep the margin within the spread, making this a favorable pick.

Los Angeles Clippers vs. Houston Rockets

The Los Angeles Clippers are well-positioned to cover the +4.5 spread in their upcoming game, despite missing Kawhi Leonard. The team has been solid on both ends of the floor, ranking 10th in defensive rating and excelling in rebounding. With key contributors like Norman Powell and James Harden stepping up offensively, the Clippers can put up points efficiently, especially from beyond the arc. While their turnover rate remains a concern, their ability to limit opponents’ scoring and control the glass should help them stay within the spread against a high-scoring opponent.

Offensive Firepower Despite Absence of Kawhi Leonard: While the Clippers are missing their superstar Kawhi Leonard, they’ve managed to stay competitive on offense. The team is averaging 110.3 points per game on 47.5% shooting, and their three-point shooting has been particularly effective at 39.4%. With key players like Norman Powell (26 PPG) and James Harden (20.8 PPG, 8.4 RPG) stepping up, the Clippers have proven they can put up points even without Leonard. The Clippers have the fifth-highest three-point shooting percentage, and despite struggles with free throws (74.9%), their offensive efficiency is solid, ranking 17th in offensive rating. This efficiency could help them stay within the +4.5 spread.
Strong Defensive Rating: The Clippers’ defense remains a significant strength. They rank 10th in defensive rating, with particularly strong numbers in rim defense (9th) and three-point defense (11th). This defensive prowess is key for them to stay competitive, especially when facing a high-scoring opponent like the Warriors or Jazz. The team’s ability to force misses and clean up the boards (3rd in defensive rebounding percentage) will limit second-chance opportunities and keep them in games. Despite giving up 108.9 points per game, their ability to get stops when needed bodes well for staying within the spread, particularly against teams that rely on perimeter shooting.
Rebounding Advantage: Los Angeles is also strong on the glass, ranking 10th in offensive rebounding rate and 3rd in defensive rebounding percentage. This rebounding edge will be critical in maintaining possession and limiting opponents’ second-chance points. When you have a player like Ivica Zubac (22 points, 14 rebounds last game) controlling the boards, it gives the Clippers a significant advantage in possession battles, which can keep games close and cover spreads.
Turnover Issues Could Be a Factor: While the Clippers’ defense is solid, their turnover issues (ranked 29th in turnover rate) could potentially hurt them, especially against teams that capitalize on fast breaks. However, if they can minimize turnovers in this matchup, they have the defensive tools to limit opponents’ scoring opportunities. The Clippers have shown they can withstand large deficits (as seen in their comeback attempt vs. the Thunder), so even if they face some early turnover struggles, their resilience and defense should allow them to stay within the +4.5 spread.
Recent Performance and Opponent Strength: While the Clippers suffered a tough loss to the Thunder, they had been riding a four-game win streak and have proven they can compete with top teams. Against the Warriors and Jazz, LA’s defense will be crucial in slowing down their high-scoring offenses. Both teams have offensive firepower but also defensive vulnerabilities, and with the Clippers’ ability to limit threes and dominate the boards, they have a good chance of keeping the game close.

Conclusion:

The Clippers have a well-balanced roster with strong scoring, excellent defense, and rebounding ability. Their issues with turnovers are concerning, but their offensive and defensive efficiency, especially from beyond the arc and in the paint, gives them a good shot at staying within the +4.5 spread. They’ve shown they can rebound from setbacks, and even without Kawhi Leonard, their collective efforts, particularly from Powell, Harden, and Zubac, should help keep them competitive. The algorithm likely sees them as a strong bet to cover the spread due to their defense and rebounding, as well as their ability to score efficiently even without Leonard.

Phoenix Suns vs. Sacramento Kings

The Phoenix Suns covering the +7.5 spread against the Sacramento Kings is a solid pick based on key factors in both teams’ current form and statistical strengths.

Suns’ Offensive Efficiency: Phoenix is averaging 115.3 points per game on 47.3% shooting from the field and 38.1% from three-point range. Despite injuries, the Suns have won 8 of their last 9 games, showcasing their offensive depth. Kevin Durant (27.6 PPG) and Devin Booker (23.1 PPG) lead the charge, but Bradley Beal and Tyus Jones also provide scoring and playmaking, making them hard to stop.
Kings’ Defensive Struggles: Sacramento’s defense is average at best, allowing 112.7 points per game and 36.3% shooting from deep. With Phoenix shooting well from beyond the arc, the Kings will struggle to contain their perimeter game. Plus, recent losses to teams like the Spurs and Clippers expose vulnerabilities that the Suns can exploit.
Suns’ Rebounding Edge: Phoenix has a strong 44.3 rebounds per game, which is crucial against a Kings team that isn’t dominant on the glass. Winning the rebound battle will give the Suns extra opportunities to score and limit Sacramento’s second-chance points.
Suns’ Ability to Compete Without Durant: Even without Durant, the Suns have shown they can maintain a high level of play. Their depth and offensive firepower make them more than capable of staying close in games, even on the road.

Conclusion

With their offensive firepower, recent form, and rebounding advantage, the Suns should be able to cover the +7.5 spread. Sacramento’s defensive issues and inconsistency make this a good bet for Phoenix to either stay within the spread or potentially pull off an upset.