MLB Game Picks & Analysis
San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Sox
The San Diego Padres, currently holding a 44-41 record this season, have shown strong momentum, winning their last three consecutive games. Recently, they clinched a series victory against the Washington Nationals, prevailing in tight contests with scores of 7-6, 9-7, and 8-5. Prior to this streak, the Padres displayed resilience by winning three out of four games against the Milwaukee Brewers, despite setbacks against the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets.
In their recent eight-game stretch, the Padres have excelled with a 7-1 record, showcasing their offensive prowess. Second in the NL West standings, San Diego’s pitching staff maintains a 4.11 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and limits opponents to a .247 batting average. Their offense has been robust, scoring 391 runs with a .261 batting average and a .325 on-base percentage.
Jurickson Profar has been a standout performer, boasting a .316 batting average along with 11 home runs and 55 RBIs this season. Notably, the Padres have scored at least six runs in six of their last seven games, underscoring their scoring consistency.
Based on these statistical trends and their recent form, algorithms favor the Padres to cover the spread in upcoming matchups, highlighting their strong offensive output and improving overall performance.
Houston Astros vs. New York Mets
Jose Quintana’s 2022 season has been disappointing with a 4.58 ERA in 15 starts and troubling expected metrics, including a 5.13 xERA. His sinker, used more than ever, has a hard-hit rate over 50%, while his four-seamer struggles with a .406 wOBA.
Facing the New York Mets tonight, Quintana’s challenges are magnified by their red-hot offense. Over the past two weeks, the Mets lead the league with a .409 wOBA and 172 wRC+, powered by hitters like Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, Pete Alonso, J.D. Martinez, and Francisco Alvarez.
Given Quintana’s struggles and the Mets’ potent lineup, algorithms predict the Mets to cover the +1.5 run spread tonight, highlighting a tough matchup for opposing pitchers.
Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore wasted no time asserting dominance, scoring three runs in the first inning and blasting four home runs in their latest game. Cedric Mullins led the charge with a homer, two RBIs, and three hits. Starting pitcher Corbin Burnes pitched seven strong innings, allowing just one run on nine hits with five strikeouts.
Tonight, right-hander Albert Suarez starts for the Orioles in game two. He holds a 3-2 record with a solid 2.70 ERA this season, performing exceptionally well at home with a 1.88 ERA and allowing only one home run in 24 innings. Despite recent ups and downs in June, Suarez aims to bounce back under the lights.
Offensively, the Orioles average 5.28 runs per game, leading MLB, and rank 4th in batting average. They excel at home, where they’ve hit most of their home runs this season. Despite challenges at night, Baltimore continues to score with power, averaging over two home runs per game in June and boasting a .274 team batting average.
With Suarez on the mound and their potent offense in form, the Orioles look to continue their winning streak tonight.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals
The Kansas City Royals enter Thursdayâs game with a strong offensive lineup led by Bobby Witt Jr., who leads the team with 102 hits, including 12 home runs, and 53 RBIs. Wittâs speed is also notable with 21 stolen bases, complementing Salvador Perezâs 12 home runs and 47 RBIs. Nelson Velazquez adds to their pitching strength with 61 strikeouts, while Maikel Garcia contributes 5 home runs, 39 RBIs, and 19 stolen bases. Vinnie Pasquantino rounds out their offense with 21 doubles, 8 home runs, and 49 RBIs. Our algorithm predicts a Royals win based on their dominant home record against AL Central teams, the Cleveland Guardiansâ recent struggles on the road against division rivals, Kansas Cityâs consistent performance on the run line in similar matchups, and Clevelandâs difficulty covering the run line at Kauffman Stadium.
