Spurs vs. Mavericks – Preview
Thursday, 8:30pm ET • American Airlines Center
Our Pick: Spurs -6.5

San Antonio heads to Dallas Thursday night with the profile of a true contender right now: 34-16 overall and sitting near the top of the West. The Mavericks, meanwhile, are 19-31 and trying to patch together wins amid roster upheaval. 

That gap matters when you’re laying points on the road, but this matchup gives the Spurs a strong path to cover -6.5 because Dallas is missing so much playmaking and size. On the NBA’s 11:15 a.m. ET injury report, the Mavericks list Kyrie Irving (left knee surgery) and Dereck Lively II (right foot surgery) as out. Anthony Davis, Dante Exum, Jaden Hardy and D’Angelo Russell are also out/not with team; Daniel Gafford is questionable (right ankle sprain) and P.J. Washington is out (concussion protocol). 

Even before you get into matchups, San Antonio’s identity travels because it’s built on two-way efficiency. The Spurs own a 116.1 offensive rating and a 110.9 defensive rating, good for a +5.1 net rating.  Dallas has played to a -2.6 net rating on the season (110.9 ORtg, 113.5 DRtg).  The Mavericks also push tempo (102.3 pace), which increases possessions — but that can actually favor the deeper, more organized team over 48 minutes. 

The anchor is Victor Wembanyama, who leads San Antonio in scoring (24.3 PPG), rebounding (11.2 RPG) and blocks (2.7 BPG).  Against a Dallas group leaning heavily on rookie Cooper Flagg and role players, the Spurs can shrink the paint behind Wembanyama, contest at the rim without constant double-teams, and still stay home on shooters. If Gafford can’t go or is limited, Dallas’ margin for error inside gets even thinner. 

Dallas’ recent results underline the uphill climb: the Mavericks enter on a five-game losing streak, including four straight home losses.  If San Antonio plays with average focus — value the ball, run shooters off the line, and win the rebounding battle — it’s hard to see Dallas generating enough efficient offense to stay within two possessions for the full 48.

Projection: Spurs control the paint, win the possession battle, and pull away late. Pick: Spurs -6.5.