Bucks vs. Celtics – Preview
Sunday, 3:30pm ET • TD Garden
Our Pick: Celtics -12.5

Sunday’s Bucks–Celtics matinee sets up as a classic “talent gap + depth gap” spot, and it’s why Boston is in position to handle business and cover the -12.5.

Start with availability: Giannis Antetokounmpo is officially out with a right calf strain, and Milwaukee is also listing Kevin Porter Jr. (out, right oblique strain) and Taurean Prince (out, neck surgery), with Gary Harris probable (left hamstring soreness).  On Boston’s side, Jayson Tatum remains out (right Achilles repair).  Even with Tatum sidelined, the Celtics’ baseline level has been elite: they enter at 30–18 with a +6.8 net rating, powered by a 121.2 offensive rating and 114.4 defensive rating. 

That efficiency edge matters even more against a Milwaukee group that’s been struggling to string stops together. The Bucks come in at 18–28 with a -4.0 net rating and a 117.2 defensive rating—numbers that typically don’t travel well, especially when you remove an MVP-caliber engine from the lineup.  Without Giannis’ rim pressure and downhill creation, Milwaukee’s margin for error shrinks to jump-shooting variance—and Boston is built to punish empty possessions with pace-changing spurts and clean three-point volume.

The Celtics’ biggest argument for a blowout cover is that their scoring doesn’t hinge on one source. Jaylen Brown has carried a featured workload at 29.4 points per game while also contributing 6.8 rebounds and 4.9 assists.  And when the benches decide the middle quarters, Boston has still won those minutes: the Celtics’ bench shows a +5.2 net rating on the season. 

If Boston plays its normal brand—take care of the ball, win the shot-quality battle, and avoid letting Milwaukee’s shooters get comfortable early—the math points to separation. Best position vs. the number: Celtics -12.5.