Patriots vs. Broncos – Preview
Sunday, 3:00pm ET • Empower Field at Mile High
Our Pick: Patriots -3.5

New England heads to Denver today for the AFC Championship at Empower Field at Mile High (kickoff 3:00 p.m. ET).  With the Patriots laying -3.5 (total 42.5), this matchup sets up as a classic “win with structure” spot for New England—control the game script, force Denver to play from behind, and let the talent gap at quarterback show up late. 

Start with the macro edge: the Patriots were one of the league’s most consistent scoring teams, finishing the season with 490 points (28.8 per game, 2nd in the NFL) while allowing 320 (18.8 per game).  Denver was excellent defensively (311 points allowed; 18.3 per game) but its offense was more middle-of-the-pack at 401 points (23.6 per game, 14th)—and now it’s asked to function without its starting QB. 

That quarterback swing is the handicap. Patriots QB Drake Maye posted 4,394 passing yards, completed 72.0% of his throws, and finished with 31 TDs to 8 INTs—numbers that reflect how often New England stays on schedule and avoids empty possessions.  Denver, meanwhile, will start Jarrett Stidham with Bo Nix sidelined; Reuters reported Stidham hasn’t thrown a pass since the 2023 season, and ESPN’s season line shows 0 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT in 2025. 

The Patriots’ best path to covering is to keep Maye clean and make Stidham win tight downs. New England’s run game is built for that: 2,191 rushing yards (4.4 YPC) and 22 rushing TDs.  Denver’s front is stout (1,548 rush yards allowed; 3.9 YPC; 11 rush TDs allowed), and edge rusher Nik Bonitto had 14.0 sacks, so expect Vrabel to lean on early-down runs, play-action, and quick throws to blunt the rush. 

If New England dictates tempo and forces Denver into obvious passing situations, the Patriots’ balanced offense is the more trustworthy side to separate. Patriots 24, Broncos 20—enough to cover -3.5.