Pacers vs. Celtics – Preview
Wednesday, 7:30pm ET • TD Garden
Our Pick: Celtics -10.5

Tonight at TD Garden (7:30 p.m. ET / 4:30 p.m. PT), the Boston Celtics host the Indiana Pacers in a matchup that sets up well for Boston to win comfortably—and cover the -10.5.

Start with the baseline gap. Boston enters 26–16 (2nd in the East) and is producing two-way results: 116.7 points per game while allowing 110.0 (2nd in the NBA in opponent points per game). Indiana comes in 10–34 (15th in the East), ranking near the bottom at 110.1 points per game (29th) while surrendering 118.3 (24th). That’s a +6.7 scoring margin for Boston versus -8.2 for Indiana—the profile you want when laying double digits. 

The injury report widens the lane for a Celtics runaway. The NBA’s official report lists Tyrese Haliburton out (right Achilles tendon tear), Bennedict Mathurin out (right thumb sprain), and Obi Toppin out (right foot stress fracture) for Indiana. For Boston, Jaylen Brown is probable (left hamstring tightness) while Jayson Tatum remains out (right Achilles repair). Without Haliburton, Indiana loses its primary organizer and late-clock creator—exactly where Boston’s length and physicality can force tougher shots and limit clean looks. 

From a matchup standpoint, Boston’s spacing is the separator. The Celtics own a 121.4 offensive rating (2nd in the NBA) and a +7.4 net rating, and they’ve already buried 660 threes this season (2nd-most). Indiana’s defensive profile (118.3 allowed) makes it tough to survive a night where Boston strings together three-point runs—especially if the Pacers are forced to play more half-court possessions and can’t trade threes for twos. 

How does it cash? Look for Boston to attack early in transition, then hunt the weakest perimeter defenders in the half court with drive-and-kick action and quick re-screens. If the Celtics take care of the ball and avoid gifting Indiana easy points, the Pacers will need a near-perfect shooting night just to hang around. More likely: Boston builds a double-digit cushion by halftime at home, keeps the defensive pressure on, and turns the final six minutes into clock-management while still sitting on a margin big enough to clear the number.