Thunder vs. Warriors – Preview
Friday, 10:00pm ET • Chase Center
Our Pick: Thunder -13.5

Tonight in San Francisco, the Oklahoma City Thunder (29-5) visit the Golden State Warriors (18-16) at Chase Center (10:00 p.m. ET, Prime Video) with OKC laying -13.5. 

It’s a big spread, but the matchup supports it because Oklahoma City has been dominant on both ends. The Thunder are averaging 122.1 points per game and allowing 107.5, while Golden State is at 115.6 scored and 113.4 allowed.  OKC has traveled well too (12-3 on the road).  Efficiency-wise, OKC is shooting 49% from the field to Golden State’s 46%, and it has a small edge on the glass (44.4 rebounds per game to 43.6).  Beyond the raw scoring, OKC’s activity creates extra chances: 10.4 steals and 5.5 blocks per game, compared with 9.6 steals and 4.5 blocks for Golden State. 

The clearest path to a comfortable cover is availability. ESPN lists Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler, and Draymond Green as out, and Reuters also reported all three will miss the game.  Curry is Golden State’s leading scorer at 28.7 points per game, and OKC’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads this matchup at 32.1.  Removing that much creation and spacing is a brutal setup against a Thunder defense that’s already holding opponents to 107.5 points per game. 

It’s also not a mystery how these teams have looked head-to-head: OKC leads the regular-season series 2-0, winning 126-102 on Nov. 11 and 124-112 on Dec. 2.  The Thunder arrive in rhythm, coming off wins over Portland (124-95), Atlanta (140-129), and Philadelphia (129-104).  Golden State has won its last two (132-125 at Charlotte, 120-107 at Brooklyn), but those came with a fuller rotation than it has tonight. 

OKC isn’t perfectly healthy either—Isaiah Hartenstein and Jaylin Williams are among those listed out—but the Thunder’s depth and defensive pressure should travel.  If Oklahoma City dictates tempo early, forces live-ball turnovers, and keeps the Warriors’ supporting cast out of rhythm, it can turn this into a game where the fourth quarter is about closing, not surviving—exactly the script you want when you’re laying -13.5.