Mavericks vs. Warriors – Preview
Thursday, 5:00pm ET • Chase Center
Our Pick: Mavericks +8.5

Christmas Day hoops heads to Chase Center tonight (5:00 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN) with the Dallas Mavericks (12-19) visiting the Golden State Warriors (15-15).  The market is giving Dallas plenty of room: the Mavericks are +8.5 on the spread (DraftKings via ESPN Odds). 

Why Dallas Can Hang Around (+8.5)

1) Defense travels. Golden State owns one of the league’s best defensive profiles (No. 3 defensive rating: 111.0), but Dallas isn’t far behind (No. 9: 112.9).  That’s a big reason an inflated number matters here—this matchup has the ingredients for long stretches where points are a grind rather than a runaway.

2) Dallas can push tempo. The Mavericks rank among the NBA’s quicker teams (No. 7 in pace: 102.1), which helps an underdog generate extra possessions and reduces the “perfect offense” requirement to cover a big number. 

3) Shot-making variance favors the dog. Golden State’s offense still runs through Stephen Curry (28.7 PPG).  Dallas’ leading scorer is rookie forward Cooper Flagg (19.2 PPG).  If Curry has even a slightly “human” shooting night and Dallas gets balanced scoring, +8.5 becomes very live late.

Injuries/Availability to Monitor

Dallas remains without Kyrie Irving (out, left knee surgery) and Dereck Lively II (out, right foot surgery); Klay Thompson and Dwight Powell are listed probable, while P.J. Washington is questionable on the NBA’s official injury report.  Golden State lists Seth Curry and L.J. Cryer out, with Al Horford probable. 

The Betting Angle

Golden State has covered 13 times in 30 games and is 4-6 ATS over its last 10, so the Warriors haven’t consistently separated from teams on the number.  Dallas has also been an underdog often and has still won eight outright in 21 dog spots—evidence they can stay competitive even in a down stretch. 

Expect a lower-margin, defense-forward game where Dallas’ tempo and the spread cushion do the heavy lifting.