Grizzlies vs. Spurs – Preview
Tuesday, 8:00pm ET • Frost Bank Center
Our Pick: Spurs -5.5

The Spurs host the Grizzlies tonight in San Antonio with most books listing San Antonio around a five-point favorite, and BetMGM hanging Spurs -5.5, total ~230.5.  San Antonio enters at 13–6, fifth in the West, while Memphis sits at 9–12 after a recent surge. 

Offensively, this version of the Spurs is built to score in bunches. They’re averaging 118.8 points per game, 11th in the league, and profile as a top-10 offense with about a 118 offensive rating.  De’Aaron Fox and Devin Vassell have driven that efficiency in pick-and-roll and dribble-handoff actions, and San Antonio’s spacing has been good enough that even without Victor Wembanyama, they maintain a +4.0 net rating (118.4 ORtg, 114.3 DRtg).  Memphis, by contrast, scores 113.4 points per game and leans more on physicality and offensive rebounding than on elite half-court shot creation. 

The injury report tilts things further toward the home side. Ja Morant remains out with a right calf strain, and Memphis is also missing Brandon Clarke and several rotation guards.  San Antonio is still without Wembanyama and rookie guard Stephon Castle, but the core perimeter trio of Fox, Vassell and Harrison Barnes is intact.  With Morant off the floor, the Grizzlies’ offense has been powered by the frontcourt—Zach Edey is coming off a 32-point, 17-rebound, 5-block demolition of Sacramento—but that attack is easier to game-plan against than a full-strength Memphis pick-and-roll system. 

Memphis does have advantages: they rebound at a top-five rate (46.4 boards per game), and their size with Edey and Jaren Jackson Jr. can punish smaller lineups.  But San Antonio owns the perimeter. The Spurs are slightly better defensively by efficiency (about 1.103 points per possession allowed vs. 1.117 for Memphis) and are 8–2 at home, where their shooters are far more comfortable.  They also beat Memphis 111–101 at Frost Bank Center last month despite losing the rebounding battle 59–39, showing their spacing and guard play can withstand the Grizzlies’ size. 

Put together—top-10 level offense, strong home form, healthier guard rotation, and a slight defensive edge—the Spurs look like they’re in the best position to control tempo and create enough separation to cover the -5.5 spread tonight.