Chiefs vs. Cowboys – Preview
Thursday, 4:30pm ET • AT&T Stadium
Our Pick: Chiefs -3.5

Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs travel to AT&T Stadium to face the Dallas Cowboys in the marquee Thanksgiving Day game tonight, with Kansas City laying about a field goal on the road and listed as a 3.5-point favorite at several books.  The Chiefs enter at 6–5, while Dallas sits at 5–5–1 in a matchup loaded with playoff implications. 

Offensively, Kansas City has been good if not always clinical, averaging 25.2 points per game (9th in the NFL).  Mahomes has thrown for 2,977 yards (2nd in the league) with 18 TDs and 7 INTs, supported by Travis Kelce’s 54 catches for 674 yards and 4 scores.  They now face a Cowboys defense that ranks 30th against the pass, allowing 252.3 air yards per game, and is surrendering 28.5 points per game overall.  That mismatch through the air, especially between Mahomes/Kelce and a vulnerable Dallas secondary, tilts the offensive edge toward the Chiefs.

Recent form also favors Kansas City’s ability to move the ball. Coming off an overtime win over Indianapolis, the Chiefs piled up 494 total yards, with Kareem Hunt earning AFC Offensive Player of the Week after 104 rushing yards and 8 total touchdowns on the season.  Dallas owns one of the league’s most explosive offenses at 29.1 points per game behind Dak Prescott’s 2,941 passing yards and 23 TDs, but this projects more as a shootout that Kansas City is better equipped to win with sustained drives rather than pure volatility. 

The biggest structural edge is on defense. Kansas City is 4th in the NFL in scoring defense, giving up just 18.3 points per game, nearly a full touchdown better than league average.  Dallas, by contrast, is allowing 28.5 points per game overall and 29.4 at home, turning AT&T Stadium into a high-scoring environment for both sides.  If the Chiefs’ top-five scoring defense can even slightly slow the Cowboys’ attack, Kansas City’s offensive efficiency should be enough to create margin beyond a field goal.

Against the spread, the line opened Chiefs -3 to -3.5 and has largely held there, with the Cowboys a respectable 6–5 ATS but just 3–11 ATS in their last 14 Thanksgiving appearances.  Dallas is 34–22–1 all-time on Thanksgiving, yet only 5–5 in its last ten holiday games, suggesting the market often overprices the “Turkey Day” aura.  Combining an elite Kansas City scoring defense, a Mahomes-led passing attack facing a bottom-tier Cowboys pass defense, and Dallas’ shaky ATS Thanksgiving history, the Chiefs appear to be in the strongest position to cover the -3.5 spread in tonight’s nationally televised Thanksgiving Day showdown.