Grizzlies vs. MAvericks – Preview
Saturday, 8:30pm ET • American Airlines Center
Our Pick: Mavericks -1.5

Saturday night in Dallas, the Memphis Grizzlies (5–11) visit the Dallas Mavericks (5–12) at American Airlines Center, with tip set for 8:30 p.m. ET and the Mavs laying a short -1.5 at home.

On paper, these are two bottom-of-the-West records, but their profiles aren’t identical. Memphis actually scores a bit more, averaging 112.8 points per game (23rd), with 44.9 rebounds (15th) and an impressive 28.5 assists (7th), but they give most of it back on the other end, allowing 117.8 points per game (19th). That playmaking peak showed in their last outing, a 137–96 demolition of Sacramento where they racked up a franchise-record 42 assists. The concern for Memphis is sustainability, especially away from FedExForum: TeamRankings’ predictive numbers rate the Grizzlies roughly eight points worse than league average on the road.

Dallas, meanwhile, has underperformed but is showing signs of life. The Mavericks average 110.8 points per game (27th) and 45.5 rebounds (9th), with 24.2 assists (27th) and 116.8 opponent points allowed (17th). They’re coming off an emotional 118–115 win over New Orleans on Friday, powered by rookie Cooper Flagg’s season-best 29 points, 7 rebounds and 5 assists, as they improved to 5–12. Flagg also leads Dallas in scoring at 16.4 points per game, with P.J. Washington pacing them on the glass at 7.8 rebounds.

Situational and trend factors tilt this spot toward the Mavericks covering the short number. Memphis has struggled badly as an underdog: one trend set notes the Grizzlies have lost 15 straight games when catching points, and favorites have won 21 of Memphis’s last 22 overall. Even after Thursday’s blowout win, they’ve failed to cover in 11 of their last 12 as underdogs following a victory, while Dallas has covered in six of the last seven second-leg back-to-backs against Memphis.

With home court, a slightly better defensive profile, momentum off the Pelicans win, and historical trends that consistently punish Memphis in the underdog role, Dallas appears to be in the stronger position to turn that -1.5 into a home cover on Saturday night.