Cowboys vs. Raiders – Preview
Monday, 8:15pm ET • Allegiant Stadium
Our Pick: Cowboys -3.5

Monday Night Football wraps up Week 11 of the 2025 NFL season in Las Vegas, where the Dallas Cowboys (3-5-1) visit the Raiders (2-7) at Allegiant Stadium in an 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff on ABC/ESPN.  With the line sitting around Cowboys -3.5, the matchup sets up well for Dallas to win by more than a field goal. 

Offensively, the Cowboys bring one of the league’s most explosive attacks. Dallas ranks third in the NFL in points per game (29.2) and total yards per game (378.4), while sitting fifth in both yards per play (5.9) and points per play. They also lead the league in passing yards per game at 257.8 and rank sixth in third-down conversion rate at 43.0%.  That kind of efficiency is a major problem for a Raiders team that’s often forced to play from behind.

Las Vegas, by contrast, has been one of the NFL’s least productive offenses. FTN charts the Raiders at 31st in points per game (15.4) and 30th in total yards per game (273.0).  Silver and Black Pride notes they entered Week 11 ranking third-to-last in yards per game (272.7) and second-to-last in scoring, including a 188-yard, seven-point showing in Denver last week.  Even against a vulnerable Dallas defense, that level of inconsistency makes it hard to keep pace if this turns into a shootout.

It’s true that the Cowboys’ defense has struggled – allowing 30.8 points and 397.4 yards per game, both 31st in the league.  But Dallas made defensive upgrades during the bye, trading for Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson and getting DeMarvion Overshown and Shavon Revel back from injury, moves local coverage has highlighted as key reinforcements for a battered unit.  On the other side, the Raiders are slightly shorthanded in their depth chart tonight, with players like RB Zamir White and DL Leki Fotu among the inactives. 

Market indicators and models also tilt toward Dallas. ESPN’s Football Power Index gives the Cowboys roughly a 58.7% win probability, versus 41% for Las Vegas.  Sportsbooks broadly reflect that edge, pricing Dallas as a road favorite of more than a field goal. 

Put together: an elite, high-volume Cowboys offense versus a bottom-tier Raiders attack, combined with defensive reinforcements for Dallas and market support on the road side, makes the Cowboys the team best positioned to cover the -3.5 spread on Monday Night Football and close Week 11 with a statement win.