MST Game Picks & Analysis
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Phoenix Suns
Clippers vs. Suns – Preview
Thursday, 9:00pm ET • Mortgage Matchup Center
Our Pick: Suns
Clippers at Suns (Nov. 6, 9:00 p.m. ET — NBA TV) — Phoenix returns home where it’s been far better than on the road, and that matters tonight. The Suns enter 3–5 overall but 3–1 at home, while the Clippers are 3–4 and winless away (0–2). ESPN BET currently lists Phoenix around -130 on the moneyline, reflecting slight favorite status.
The biggest swing factors are on the injury sheet. The NBA’s 3:30 p.m. ET official report rules Kawhi Leonard (right ankle sprain) and James Harden (personal) out for L.A., stripping the Clippers of their two primary shot creators. Phoenix lists Grayson Allen (illness) questionable and Dillon Brooks (core muscle) out. Phoenix may also get a lift from Jalen Green, who went through shootaround and is probable to make his Suns debut.
Form and context also lean Suns. Phoenix’s last outing (Sunday) was a 130–118 home win over the then-undefeated Spurs in which the Suns shot 58.2% from the field and 57.6% from three—a reminder of their ceiling when the offense hums. The Clippers, meanwhile, played Tuesday and fell 126–107 to Oklahoma City, committing 19 turnovers and getting run out in the second half—hardly ideal with both Kawhi and Harden out tonight.
Yes, L.A. thumped Phoenix 129–102 back on Oct. 24—but that was with both Leonard (27) and Harden (30) active. Tonight is a different matchup entirely. The setting is favorable too: this game is in Phoenix at the Mortgage Matchup Center (the Suns’ home floor), where the Suns have banked all of their wins so far.
If you’re looking for one more nudge, ESPN’s model gives Phoenix roughly a 62% win probability pre-tip, aligning with the modest moneyline price.
Bottom line: With home/away splits in their favor, rest advantage (last played Sunday vs. L.A. on Tuesday), a hot shooting performance fresh in the rearview, and the Clippers missing both Kawhi and Harden, the Suns have the clearer path to simply win the game—making the moneyline the most defensible angle.
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