Warriors vs. Kings – Preview
Wednesday, 10:00pm ET • Golden 1 Center
Our Pick: Kings -2.5

The market has Sacramento as a small home favorite tonight (Kings -2.5), and the matchup context supports the number. Golden State is on the second night of a back-to-back after Tuesday’s 118–107 win over Phoenix, while Sacramento is rested and at home. 

Availability tilts toward the Kings. Stephen Curry has been ruled out with illness, and Jimmy Butler will also sit; ESPN further reports Draymond Green has been ruled out, with Brandin Podziemski listed as questionable on the league’s official injury report. That removes the Warriors’ primary creator, their second scorer, and their defensive quarterback on short rest. 

Sacramento has its own absences — the NBA injury report lists Domantas Sabonis (rib), Zach LaVine (back) and Keegan Murray (thumb) as out — but the Kings still retain more backcourt shot creation and continuity for a home game that should favor their depth. Even with the injuries, they aren’t absorbing the same ball-handling and playmaking losses Golden State is facing tonight. 

Form and setting also point Sacramento’s way. Through Wednesday’s ledger, the Warriors are 5–3 and the Kings 2–5; last night’s result confirms this is indeed a true back-to-back spot for Golden State. The short turnaround compresses recovery for a shorthanded rotation that just logged a high-energy win. 

Early-season team profiles suggest Sacramento can pressure a depleted Warriors defense. NBA.com lists the Kings scoring 116.3 points per game, while Golden State allows 114.6; the Kings’ defensive number (121.0 allowed) is inflated, but the Warriors’ missing creators make matching Sacramento’s shot volume and free-throw pressure more difficult on the road. Expect the Kings to lean on dribble-drive offense, secondary actions, and whistle-seeking guards to manufacture points against a Warriors unit without its usual initiators and back-line organizer. 

Bottom line: the combination of (1) Warriors’ back-to-back fatigue, (2) Curry/Butler/Green all ruled out, and (3) Sacramento’s home floor with enough guard play to attack switches and get to the line, makes Kings -2.5 the more sustainable side. If late news moves the number, monitor the injury wire, but at current personnel and context, Sacramento is positioned to cover.