Suns vs. Warriors – Preview
Tuesday, 10:00pm ET • Chase Center
Our Pick: Warriors -9.5

The Warriors host the Suns at Chase Center tonight at 10:00 p.m. ET. Market consensus sits around Warriors -9.5 (some books -10.5), and the records are tight early: Golden State 4–3, Phoenix 3–4. 

Availability tilts this matchup toward Golden State. The NBA’s official injury report lists Phoenix without two key wings—Jalen Green (right hamstring) and Dillon Brooks (core muscle)—while Isaiah Livers is questionable and Ryan Dunn is probable. For the Warriors, Jimmy Butler (low back) is questionable, with Al Horford (injury management) and De’Anthony Melton (left ACL surgery) out. Even if Butler sits, Phoenix’s shorthanded perimeter group is a real concern against Stephen Curry and the Warriors’ guard-driven attack. 

Golden State’s offense has looked lively to start the season, averaging 117.6 points per game (14th) with 27.7 assists (8th). The Warriors are conceding 115.7 points per game, but their playmaking volume and shooting gravity at home have helped them control runs and separate late—precisely the profile you want when laying a larger number. 

Phoenix is capable of explosive nights—Sunday’s 130–118 win over San Antonio featured 19 made threes and a 28-point, 13-assist line from Devin Booker—but that performance came at home and with a different matchup context. Replicating that shotmaking on the road without Green and Brooks (two of their primary wing creators/defenders) is a tougher ask, especially versus a Warriors team that thrives when opponents are thin at the point of attack. 

Tactically, expect Golden State to stress Phoenix’s weakened perimeter with high ball screens for Curry, forcing help from secondary defenders and creating corner looks for shooters. If Butler is available, his physicality and mid-post creation further pressure Phoenix’s rotations; if he’s not, the Warriors can still lean on Curry’s off-ball movement and the team’s cutting game to generate quality shots. With Phoenix’s wing depth compromised and Booker likely carrying a heavy two-way workload, the Suns’ margin for error shrinks as the game wears on.

Bottom line: the combination of Golden State’s early-season offensive flow, home-floor comfort, and Phoenix’s injury-driven wing shortage supports a numbers-based case that the Warriors are best positioned to cover the -9.5. (Consensus pricing in market ranges -9.5 to -10.5 at publication.)