Chiefs vs. Bills – Preview
Sunday, 4:25pm ET • Highmark Stadium
Our Pick: Chiefs -1.5

The AFC’s marquee matchup lands in Orchard Park with Kansas City a slight -1.5 favorite across major books (moneyline around KC -127)—a number tight enough to hinge on a few repeatable edges. 

Start with Kansas City’s profile. Through eight games the Chiefs have outscored opponents 214–131—that’s 26.8 points per game on offense vs. 16.4 allowed, the kind of scoring margin that travels. They’re also winning the down‑to‑down battles: 44.0% on third down offensively while holding foes to 38.37%, and they control tempo at 32:30 time of possession per game. Defensively, KC has kept opponents to 177.8 net passing yards per game and 100.0 rushing yards per game, underscoring a unit that limits explosives and stays sound against the run. 

Buffalo counters with firepower—29.6 points per game and 395.0 total yards per game—but the Bills’ defense has been far more giving on the ground than through the air: opponents are averaging 150.3 rushing yards per game, and converting 40.24% on third down. That run‑defense number, in particular, is a mismatch against a Chiefs offense that churns out 126.5 rushing yards per game, allowing Andy Reid to keep Patrick Mahomes in favorable down‑and‑distance and away from obvious passing situations. 

Market indicators support the case. Against the spread, Kansas City is 5–3 while Buffalo is 3–4 entering today—evidence that the Chiefs have been priced a touch short and are still delivering relative to expectations, whereas the Bills have lagged. 

Put it together and the path to KC -1.5 is coherent: a defense that suppresses passing efficiency and gets off the field, an offense that sustains drives and can lean on the run versus Buffalo’s biggest leak, and a team whose season‑long point profile (+83 differential) already reflects multi‑score separation. In a game likely decided by situational football—third downs and red‑zone execution—Kansas City’s balance gives them multiple ways to win by a field goal or more. Lean: Chiefs to cover -1.5. (Game: Chiefs at Bills, Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY.)