Ravens vs. Dolphins – Preview
Thursday, 8:15pm ET • Hard Rock Stadium
Our Pick: Ravens -7.5

Thursday Night Football kicks off Week 9 tonight with Baltimore traveling to Miami for a prime‑time reset at Hard Rock Stadium. The matchup opens the week at 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video. Baltimore enters 2–5; Miami is 2–6, and both snapped skids on Sunday — the Ravens beat Chicago 30–16, while the Dolphins routed Atlanta 34–10. 

Why Baltimore is Best Positioned to Cover

Start with the trenches. Baltimore’s identity still runs through the ground game: 934 rushing yards in seven games (5.3 yards per carry). Miami’s defense has been gashed for 1,160 rushing yards in eight games (5.0 per carry). That run‑defense profile, plus Baltimore’s physicality, points to a possession‑tilting script that shortens the game, keeps the sticks manageable, and sets up explosives off play‑action. 

Protection and pressure further tilt the matchup. The Ravens have allowed only nine sacks while producing 22 on defense — a clean pocket on one side and real heat on the other. Miami’s offense, meanwhile, has been sacked 15 times and its defense has generated just one interception all season; the Dolphins also sit at –5 in turnover ratio. If Baltimore plays from ahead, that pass‑rush/turnover math becomes decisive. 

Finally, the underlying scoreboard trends aren’t kind to Miami. Through eight games the Dolphins have been outscored 215–174 (–41), while Baltimore sits at 210–174 (–36) in seven. That differential lines up with the efficiency split: the Ravens’ offense is averaging 5.6 yards per play, and Miami’s defense is allowing 5.6; Baltimore has converted 32 of 79 third downs (40.5%), while Dolphins opponents are 41 of 95 (43.2%). Put together, that’s the recipe for sustained Ravens drives and a leaky Miami front — the exact combination that can turn a one‑score lead into a two‑possession cover in the fourth quarter. 

Bottom Line

On a short week to open Week 9, Baltimore’s run‑game edge against Miami’s porous rush defense, combined with superior pass protection and a steadier situational profile, makes the Ravens the sharper side to lay the points at -7.5. If the ground game keeps down‑and‑distance honest and the rush lands on obvious passing downs, Baltimore has a clear path to separation late.