Commanders vs. Chiefs – Preview
Monday, 8:15pm ET • GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Our Pick: Chiefs -10

Commanders at Chiefs (MNF, Week 8 finale) — Preview & why KC can cover -10

Week 8 wraps tonight with Monday Night Football as Washington visits Kansas City at 8:15 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN.  The Chiefs enter 4–3 (3–1 at Arrowhead) and the Commanders 3–4 (1–3 away). Markets sit around Chiefs -10 to -10.5, with -10 available in spots. It’s also Kansas City’s third straight home date. 

Why the Chiefs can clear the number

1) Elite scoring defense, surging form. Kansas City allows just 17.7 points per game (3rd) and has outscored its last two opponents 61–17, hammering Detroit 30–17 and shutting out Las Vegas 31–0. That defensive baseline raises the bar Washington must clear to stay within one score. 

2) Mahomes + pass game advantage. Patrick Mahomes has 1,800 yards and 14 TDs through seven games, powering a passing attack averaging 247.1 ypg (6th) and an offense scoring 26.6 ppg (top‑10). Travis Kelce remains the primary chain‑mover (team‑high 375 receiving yards), and the Chiefs’ ability to create explosive answers stresses Washington’s thin back end. 

3) Washington shorthanded at QB and on defense. Rookie Jayden Daniels is out (hamstring), so veteran Marcus Mariota starts; his 2025 line is 426 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT. Washington’s defense has leaked both points (24.3 ppg, 21st) and efficiency (5.8 yards per play allowed), and multiple front‑seven pieces have been sidelined in recent weeks. 

4) Script pressure favors KC. Washington leans run‑heavy (148.9 rushing ypg, 2nd) but ranks 24th in passing (196.1 ypg). If the Chiefs score early—as they have during this two‑game spike—the Commanders’ path shifts to Mariota’s arm on the road, where they’re 1–3. Arrowhead’s noise also stresses a backup’s cadence and communication. 

Counterpoints & bottom line. Kansas City lists starting guard Trey Smith (back) as doubtful, but the home track record (3–1) and a top‑three scoring defense offset the O‑line concern. Add Washington’s back‑to‑back losses (Bears, Cowboys) with 69 points allowed in those games, and the setup favors margin. 

Pick: Chiefs -10. With MNF closing Week 8 of the 2025 season, Kansas City owns the cleaner profile on both sides and the quarterback edge to separate late.