Knicks vs. Heat – Preview
Sunday, 6:00pm ET • Kaseya Center
Our Pick: Knicks -2.5

Knicks–Heat Preview (Day 6 of the 2025–26 NBA season) — Opening night was Oct. 21, so Sunday, Oct. 26 is Day 6 of the regular season. 

The Knicks (2–0) visit the Heat (1–1) at Kaseya Center at 6:00 p.m. ET. ESPN’s matchup page lists New York as the slight favorite in its predictor (53.1%) and confirms the venue, time, and current records.  Most books have the spread Knicks -2.5 with a total around 229.5 as of this afternoon. 

Why New York is positioned to cover (-2.5):

• Early defensive edge. Through two games, the Knicks have allowed just 103.0 points per game, the best mark in the league so far, while scoring 112.0. Miami, by contrast, has been explosive (133.5 PPG) but is giving up 119.5. That profile points to New York’s defense being the most bankable unit on the floor. 

• Recent head-to-head control. New York swept last season’s series 3–0, scoring exactly 116 in all three meetings (116–107, 116–112 OT, 116–95). NBA.com’s recap of the March 17 win notes it was the Knicks’ first sweep of Miami since 1992–93. That’s a meaningful matchup trend for a largely intact Knicks core. 

• Injury ledger favors the Knicks. The official 10:30 a.m. ET NBA injury report lists Tyler Herro (out, ankle surgery) and Terry Rozier (out, not with team) for Miami; Kel’el Ware is available. For New York, Karl-Anthony Towns (questionable, quad), Miles McBride (questionable, personal), Josh Hart (probable, back), and Mitchell Robinson (out, ankle management) are listed. Even if Towns is limited, New York’s wing/guard depth is intact while Miami is down a primary creator/scorer. 

• Form & context. New York has banked quality wins over Cleveland (119–111) and Boston (105–95) to open the Mike Brown era, showing two-way balance from Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges, and OG Anunoby. Miami’s lone win was a 146–114 blitz of Memphis, but its defense has been leakier overall. 

Bottom line: With the better early-season defense, a favorable injury sheet, and a dominant recent series trend, the Knicks have the firmer path to winning by a possession or more and thus covering -2.5 on the road. (Spread/total as of Oct. 26; lines move.)