Thunder vs. Pacers – Preview
Thursday, 7:30pm ET • Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Our Pick: Pacers +7.5

Situationally, this sets up well for a Pacers cover. Oklahoma City is coming off a taxing, double-overtime ring-night win over Houston on Tuesday, a 125–124 thriller that pushed their starters deep into minutes—and they didn’t cover the number in that game. That combination of emotional spike, extra mileage, and quick turnaround often compresses margins on the road. 

The injury report also tilts toward a tighter contest. Indiana will be without Tyrese Haliburton (right Achilles tear), but the Thunder’s elite two-way depth is thinned: Alex Caruso (concussion protocol), Isaiah Joe (knee), Jalen Williams (right wrist surgical recovery), Cason Wallace (knee), Kenrich Williams (knee), Nikola Topic (surgical recovery) and others are listed out/limited for tonight by the league office. That’s a lot of OKC’s perimeter creation, spacing, and connective tissue—precisely the areas that typically help favorites separate late. 

Even without Haliburton, Indiana’s offensive baseline remains solid. Last season the Pacers finished 7th in points per game (117.4) and posted a top-10 offensive rating (116.5; 9th), production driven by Pascal Siakam, Bennedict Mathurin, and Andrew Nembhard—the latter now stepping into primary table-setting duties. That profile suggests Indiana can manufacture enough half-court answers to avoid droughts, especially with OKC shorthanded on the wing. 

Add in home-opener juice and the fact that OKC already burned a fair bit of energy (and still failed to clear a similar spread on Tuesday), and +7.5 becomes a playable number. Yes, the Thunder’s championship-caliber defense and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s late-game shot-making make them rightful favorites, but this particular spot—Finals rematch in Indy, banged-up OKC rotation, and an inflated line for the champs—leans toward a competitive, single-possession feel for long stretches. 

Lean: Pacers +7.5. Indiana’s front-court physicality and enough shot creation from Siakam/Mathurin/Nembhard should keep them within two possessions against a Thunder team navigating early-season attrition and a quick emotional comedown from Tuesday’s marathon.