Warriors vs. Lakers – Preview
Tuesday, 10:00pm ET • Crypto.com Arena
Our Pick: Warriors -2.5

Opening Night is here — the 2025/26 NBA season tips off today, with Warriors–Lakers capping the doubleheader at 10:00 p.m. ET in Los Angeles. 

The line & context. Books have Golden State favored by 2.5 on the road (Warriors -2.5), reflecting a major injury edge: LeBron James is out (sciatica) for the opener. 

Why the Warriors to cover (-2.5).

• Top-10 defense returns, plus veteran reinforcements. Last season, Golden State posted a 111.7 defensive rating — a top-10 figure — and enters tonight with more two-way depth around Stephen Curry, including Jimmy Butler and Al Horford. With Jonathan Kuminga and Butler both listed probable, the rotation should be close to full strength (Moses Moody and De’Anthony Melton remain out). 

• Volume from deep vs. L.A.’s perimeter concessions. The Warriors attempted 42.4 threes per game last year, second only to Boston. That volume stretches defenses early — especially on a night the Lakers are redistributing on-ball duties without LeBron. The Lakers allowed 38.0 opponent 3PA per game in 2024-25 (middle of the pack), a profile Golden State’s motion threes can exploit. 

• Lakers are talented, but reconfigured and shorthanded. Los Angeles will lean on new franchise centerpiece Luka Dončić, plus Austin Reaves and Deandre Ayton, but the team is still integrating major pieces — and doing so without James. ESPN’s current depth chart reflects Dončić leading the guard room; opening-night reports confirm James’ absence. Early in a season, continuity matters — and Golden State’s Curry-Draymond core, buttressed by Butler/Horford, offers more schematic carryover than L.A.’s revamped pecking order. 

Matchup hinge points.

• Point-of-attack defense: Butler/Kuminga give Steve Kerr two switchable wings to throw at Dončić; if they’re active as listed, they can reduce L.A.’s mismatch hunting late. 

• Shot quality: Curry’s gravity fuels high-value catch-and-shoot looks — a winning trade against a defense that allowed league-average volume from deep last year. 

The bet-level takeaway: With LeBron sidelined, the Warriors’ steadier defensive baseline and three-point math give them multiple paths to margin. At -2.5, Golden State has the cleaner cover profile on Opening Night. Also: today officially marks the start of the 2025/26 NBA season — enjoy the return!