Mariners vs. Blue Jays – Preview
Monday, 8:10pm ET • Rogers Centre
Our Pick: Blue Jays Moneyline

Game 7 at Rogers Centre has all the makings of a classic: first pitch is scheduled for 8:08 p.m. ET on FOX, with Shane Bieber going for Toronto and George Kirby for Seattle in a rematch of Game 3. The winner advances to face the Los Angeles Dodgers in the World Series. 

The pitching matchup tilts toward Toronto based on the last meeting. In Game 3, Bieber delivered six innings of two-run ball with eight strikeouts in a 13–4 Blue Jays win. Kirby, by contrast, was tagged for eight earned runs in four innings—the most allowed by a Mariners starter in a postseason game, matching a postseason record since earned runs have been tracked. 

Toronto’s bats have also found their loudest gear. In that Game 3 rout, the Jays launched five home runs to get back into the series. Then, in Game 6, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. crushed his sixth homer of this postseason (tying a franchise mark) and Addison Barger drove in three as Toronto forced tonight’s decider. Seattle’s defense wobbled with three errors while Toronto turned three momentum-killing, bases-loaded double plays. 

The bullpen edge looks Blue Jays, too. Closer Jeff Hoffman has been nails in October (1.42 postseason ERA), and he slammed the door in Game 6 with two scoreless innings and four strikeouts. Across the regular season he piled up 33 saves with 84 Ks in 68 frames—precisely the late-inning stability you want behind a veteran starter in a winner-take-all. 

Context favors Toronto as well: the Jays just engineered a 6–2, season-saving win to set up only their second ALCS Game 7 ever (the Mariners’ first), and they get this one at home in a dome that’s been rocking all month. Momentum isn’t a stat, but Bieber’s recent form, Kirby’s struggles in this matchup, a surging middle of the order, and a locked-in closer offer concrete reasons to back the Jays on the moneyline tonight.