Mariners vs. Blue Jays – Preview
Sunday, 8:03pm ET • Rogers Centre
Our Pick: Blue Jays Moneyline

Toronto returns to Rogers Centre tonight for ALCS Game 6 with its season on the line, and the matchup lines up favorably for the Blue Jays to force a Game 7 and cover the moneyline. First pitch is 8:03 p.m. ET, with Seattle starting Logan Gilbert and Toronto countering with rookie right-hander Trey Yesavage. Seattle leads the series 3–2 after Friday’s late surge, but the scene shifts back to a venue where Toronto has been elite. 

Start with the most bankable edge: home form. The Jays posted an AL-best 54–27 record at Rogers Centre in the regular season—only the Phillies were better in MLB—so the setting materially tilts toward Toronto.    George Springer is officially back atop the order as DH tonight, restoring the preferred table-setter for a lineup that already showed it can explode in this series (five homers in the 13–4 Game 3 win). 

The primary matchup boost for Toronto is Vladimir Guerrero Jr. versus Gilbert. Guerrero is 6-for-17 with two homers off the Mariners’ righty in his career, and his bat is built to punish velocity: he finished 2025 with a +27 Run Value against fastballs (t-7th in MLB) and a career .530 slug vs heaters.    Gilbert, meanwhile, owns a 0–2 record and 5.24 ERA in six career appearances against the Jays—noise-prone small sample, yes, but it reinforces the fit for Toronto’s right-handed thump. 

Gilbert’s last turn in this series was abbreviated after he had pitched in relief earlier in the week; tonight he’s back on extra rest, but Toronto’s patient approach and Guerrero’s specific history still profile well. Yesavage (1–1, 4.82 ERA this postseason) gives Toronto swing-and-miss with 15 strikeouts so far, and he won’t be asked to overextend with the bullpen fresh behind him. 

Markets reflect a modest lean to the home side, with several books listing Toronto as a slight moneyline favorite around −125 as of this afternoon. That lines up with the underlying edges: AL-best home record, their catalyst (Springer) active, and a star hitter who sees this starter exceptionally well. In a tight series that’s largely defied home-field trends until Game 5, the Jays have the cleaner path to a one-game scenario on Monday—and to cashing the moneyline tonight.