MST Game Picks & Analysis
MLB
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners
Blue Jays vs. Mariners – Preview
Thursday, 8:33pm ET • T-Mobile Park
Our Pick: Mariners Moneyline
Seattle carries a 2–1 series lead into Game 4 at T-Mobile Park after Toronto’s 13–4 outburst in Game 3 reset the tone of this ALCS. The Blue Jays clubbed five homers and piled up 18 hits, but Seattle still holds the edge in the series and the home field tonight.
The pitching matchup favors the Mariners. Luis Castillo capped his regular season at 11–8 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.18 WHIP, then opened October with six scoreless innings across two ALDS outings. He also finished the regular season on a heater: four straight starts of at least 6.0 IP with no more than one earned run allowed. That blend of form and playoff poise (career postseason ERA 1.40) is exactly what you want in a swing game.
Across the field, 41-year-old Max Scherzer returns from a neck issue for his first postseason action this year after a 2025 regular season marked by inconsistency (5–5, 5.19 ERA). Down the stretch he went 0–3 with a 9.95 ERA over his final five starts before being shut down, and Toronto is betting on a “flip the switch” outing in a hostile park.
Seattle’s broader profile also supports a moneyline play. The Mariners were outstanding at home (51–30) while the Jays were sub-.500 on the road (40–41) in the regular season. Seattle has paired run prevention (3.87 team ERA) with thunder (238 HR) better than Toronto (4.19 ERA, 191 HR), a mix that plays well behind Castillo. Unsurprisingly, books have priced Seattle as a modest favorite tonight (around −120 to −125).
One more edge: the M’s have optionality to shorten the game. Manager Dan Wilson can lean into a rested bullpen and even turn to Bryan Woo in relief if needed, while Castillo’s recent efficiency should help protect leverage arms after last night’s loss.
Bottom line: with Castillo in rhythm and October-tested, Scherzer’s recent volatility, Seattle’s home/road split advantage, and a staff that has limited runs all year, the Mariners are in the best position to win Game 4 outright. Mariners moneyline is the play.
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