Mariners vs. Blue Jays – Preview
Sunday, 8:03pm ET • Rogers Centre
Our Pick: Blue Jays Moneyline

Toronto opens the ALCS at home tonight (8:03 p.m. ET, Rogers Centre), sending Kevin Gausman against Seattle’s Bryce Miller in a matchup that tilts toward the Blue Jays on paper. 

Start with the mound: Gausman was Toronto’s steadiest arm this year (10–11, 3.59 ERA, 189 K, 1.06 WHIP over 193 IP) and he just set the tone in ALDS Game 1 vs. the Yankees (1 ER in 5⅔). He’s also historically handled Seattle (2.94 ERA in 12 regular-season outings).  By contrast, Seattle turns to Bryce Miller, who posted a 5.68 ERA across 18 starts in 2025 and worked only 4⅓ innings in his lone ALDS start.  The head-to-head on the hill clearly favors Toronto.

Home/road splits strengthen that edge. The Blue Jays were 54–27 at Rogers Centre this season, while the Mariners finished 39–42 away from T-Mobile Park.  That context helps explain why ESPN’s model gives Toronto roughly a 64% win probability tonight. 

Form and roster notes also lean Jays. Toronto reached the ALCS by eliminating the Yankees in four, riding an offense that piled up 23 runs in the first two games of that series.  Meanwhile, Seattle needed a 15-inning marathon to oust Detroit, then lined up Miller for Game 1 with heavy recent workloads for Luis Castillo and Logan Gilbert. 

Depth-wise, the Blue Jays added veterans Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt to the ALCS roster — valuable length behind Gausman even if they’re slotted for later — while star shortstop Bo Bichette remains out. Seattle counters with the return of All-Star Bryan Woo later in the series, but he’s not tonight’s starter. 

Statistically, Toronto also carries the stronger season-long profile at the plate (.265/.333/.427 team slash vs. Seattle’s .244/.320/.420), and that incremental edge matters in a Game 1 where a few extra baserunners can flip leverage. 

Bottom line: with Gausman’s advantage over Miller, elite home performance, a rested bullpen plus added rotation depth, and a lineup that just bludgeoned its way through the ALDS, the Jays are rightly positioned to take the opener — and to justify their moneyline favorite status.