Cubs vs. Brewers – Preview
Saturday, 8:08pm ET • American Family Field
Our Pick: Brewers Moneyline

Here we go: a winner-take-all Game 5 at American Family Field (8:08 p.m. ET). Chicago opens with lefty Drew Pomeranz, who hasn’t allowed a baserunner this postseason, while Milwaukee counters with closer Trevor Megill as an opener—both clubs signaling an all-hands bullpen night. 

Why the Brewers on the moneyline? Start with venue and season-long profile. Milwaukee finished 97-65 with MLB’s best NL record and home-field throughout, and they were outstanding in Milwaukee (52-29) with a +172 run differential. The Cubs were excellent too (92-70, +144), but the game’s in a park where the Brewers consistently banked wins. 

The pitching blueprint also tilts toward the Crew. Using Megill up top lets manager Pat Murphy roll directly into a rested leverage group: triple-digit rookie Jacob Misiorowski and closer Abner Uribe haven’t pitched since Game 2, while Nick Mears and Jared Koenig skipped Game 4. In a series already shaped by bullpens, that’s meaningful—Milwaukee’s relief corps threw 7⅓ one-hit, scoreless innings to lock down Game 2.   

Offensively, the top of Milwaukee’s order has done damage in this matchup. William Contreras and Andrew Vaughn have left the yard in the series, and 20-year-old Jackson Chourio has been brilliant on the October stage—he owns a .462 career postseason average and has hit safely in each of his first seven playoff games (hamstring tightness and all). Against an opener then a string of righty/lefty Cubs relievers, that trio’s ability to pressure the middle innings is pivotal. 

Context matters: Chicago did force this game by blanking Milwaukee 6–0 in Game 4, but now the series swings back to American Family Field—where the Brewers jumped out to a 2–0 lead earlier in the week and where their run-prevention machine has thrived all year. Expect Murphy to shorten the game, stack favorable matchups, and lean on the freshest velocity in the building. 

Yes, the Cubs edged the regular-season series 7–6 and Pomeranz has been spotless in tiny samples. But in a bullpen game, depth, rest disparity, and home environment usually decide it. Add Milwaukee’s elite regular-season profile and an energized top-of-order, and the Brewers have the cleaner path to control innings 5–9—and the best case to cash the moneyline.