Tigers vs. Mariners – Preview
Friday, 8:08pm ET • T-Mobile Park
Our Pick: Tigers Moneyline

Game 5 brings Detroit to T-Mobile Park tonight at 8:08 p.m. ET on FOX, with the series knotted 2–2. The Tigers hand the ball to Tarik Skubal, while Seattle counters with George Kirby. 

Detroit’s edge starts on the mound. Skubal’s regular season was Cy Young–caliber: 13–6, 2.21 ERA, 241 K.  He’s carried that form into October, logging a 1.84 ERA and 23 strikeouts over 14⅔ postseason innings.  Kirby is capable, but his 2025 profile (10–8, 4.21 ERA, 137 K) is a step down from Skubal’s.  In his lone start this series, Kirby allowed two earned over 5.0 innings with eight strikeouts. 

Market and model lean Detroit as well: ESPN BET listed the Tigers as a slight road favorite (-120), and ESPN’s Analytics gives them a 55.5% win probability. 

Just as important, Detroit’s bats finally roared in Game 4’s 9–3 win to force tonight’s decider, with Riley Greene and Javier Báez delivering long balls that energized the lineup. That breakout followed a lean postseason stretch and signals real carryover potential in a winner-take-all setting. 

Context matters in a Game 5: Skubal is the reigning AL Cy Young and draws this assignment on full rest; he’s been the tone-setter of Detroit’s October run.  Seattle’s home mark (51–30) is formidable, but even with that advantage, the combination of Detroit’s ace-level run prevention and a reawakened middle of the order gives the Tigers the cleaner path to a moneyline cash. 

Add in personnel notes—Seattle remains without starter Bryan Woo—which thins the Mariners’ starting depth behind Kirby and could press their bullpen if they chase outs early. 

Bottom line: with the best pitcher on either side taking the ball and Detroit’s lineup showing timely power two nights ago, the Tigers are in the strongest position to finish the job in Seattle.