
MST Game Picks & Analysis
MLB
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Phillies vs. Dodgers – Preview
Thursday, 6:08pm ET • Dodger Stadium
Our Pick: Dodgers Moneyline
Dodger Stadium hosts NLDS Game 4 tonight at 6:08 p.m. ET with Los Angeles up 2–1. The matchup is Tyler Glasnow for the Dodgers vs. left-hander Cristopher Sánchez for Philadelphia, per MLB’s game preview and ESPN’s listings.
Why Dodgers ML? Start with the mound. Glasnow has been a different beast at Chavez Ravine this season: in 11 games at Dodger Stadium he logged a 2.79 ERA with a .172 opponent average and 0.93 WHIP across 61.2 innings—dominant run-prevention that plays in a tight postseason environment.
Layer on the venue edge. Across the regular season, L.A. went 52–29 at home, while Philadelphia was a modest 41–40 on the road—exactly the kind of split that tilts a coin-flip October game toward the hosts.
The handedness battle also leans blue. With Sánchez (LHP) on the hill, Dave Roberts can stack right-handed bats who handle southpaws. That’s reflected in his recent choices; for example, Miguel Rojas drew starts specifically for his lefty-crushing line (.295/.363/.516, 143 wRC+) against southpaws, and the Dodgers have toggled pieces like Kiké Hernández accordingly. The upshot: L.A. can optimize matchups throughout Sánchez’s outing and into Philadelphia’s bullpen.
Yes, the Phillies punched back in Game 3 (8–2) to extend the series, but the broader context remains favorable for Los Angeles: up 2–1, at home, and handing the ball to a starter with elite home splits. Meanwhile, Game 4 still runs through Glasnow vs. a lineup that must solve a power righty in a pitcher-friendly park.
Bottom line: combine Glasnow’s Dodger Stadium form, the Dodgers’ season-long home strength, the Phillies’ merely average road profile, and Los Angeles’ flexibility to deploy righty bats versus Sánchez, and the Dodgers are set up best to cash the moneyline tonight.
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